This poll was so hotly anticipated, data nerds in political media were chattering last night about which hour we should expect it to arrive at today. Why the hype? It’s partly because the pollster, Marquette Law, is among the most respected in Wisconsin and partly because if there’s any blue state that looks demographically like it might be ready to turn red for Trump, it’s this one. The Wisconsin electorate is overwhelmingly white, and whites are Trump’s base; the state also has three big-name Republicans supporting him in Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and Reince Priebus. If there’s a red tide moving among the national electorate in the final week of the election, Wisconsin’s a place where you’d expect the wave to breach Clinton’s blue wall.

Not happening, says Marquette: Clinton 46, Trump 40. Tell me if these numbers sound familiar.

Among WI men, 46% support Trump, 41% Clinton. Among women, 50% support Clinton, 34% Trump. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

Among non-Hispanic whites with a college degree, it’s Clinton 46%, Trump 39%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

Is Clinton qualified to be president? 59% say yes, 39% no. IS Trump qualified? 35% say yes, 61% no. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

Overall, 81% of Repubs back Trump, 89% of Dems support Clinton. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

That’s been the story of the race since May, more or less. Trump leads among men, but not as lopsidedly as Clinton leads among women. The white college grads who normally go Republican are instead going Democratic this year, which is crippling Trump’s ability to consolidate his party. And although no one trusts Crooked Hillary, her huge advantage on basic qualifications for the job is probably going to mean doom for Trump. Despite everything that’s happened over the past few weeks, her lead in Wisconsin is nearly identical to what it was the last time Marquette Law polled the state in mid-October. Then she led by seven. Now it’s six, right in line with her average lead there — and Trump still hasn’t led a single survey of WI by any pollster all year. If you were hoping that Wisconsin will be the fourth ace in the four-of-a-kind hand Trump’s trying to build to win the presidency, it might be time to give up and look elsewhere.

This poll was taken both before and after Comey’s big announcement on Friday, by the way. The change in opinion over the span of several days is worth noting:

Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

The FBI news made an impact, just not enough. You can take comfort from that if you’re a Trump fan: Wisconsin may be simply too blue for Comey’s letter to turn it red, but states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina aren’t. In fact, take a peek at the polling this week in Pennsylvania and you’ll see that a state that looked like a gimme for Clinton all summer is now tighter than Wisconsin is. Her lead there has ranged from two points to four over the last few days (apart from one major outlier); two new polls out this morning from CNN and Monmouth have her up four as well. You wouldn’t want to bet on PA as your big upset given the resources Democrats have applied there, but it’s not off the board.

Trump’s two other prime bluish pick-ups right now are Colorado, where Clinton’s lead is down to 2.4 points on average, and New Hampshire, where Monmouth had Clinton’s lead down to four points before Comey and where Obama’s now planning to campaign the night before the election. If Trump can add one of those as his fourth card along with Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, he’s right where he needs to be to pull the upset. I’d mention Nevada too — where CNN has him ahead by six(!!!) in its new poll today — but smart folks watching the early voting returns there swear up and down that the state is slipping away. Between that, this Wisconsin poll, and the fact that Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania has been stubborn all year, it may be Colorado or bust for Trump.

Oh, by the way, one last data point from Wisconsin. The GOP’s not really going to hold the Senate in this terrible political climate. Is it?

US Senate race in WI: New Marquette Law School Poll finds 45% for Russ Feingold, 44% for Ron Johnson. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016

Feingold was demolishing Johnson in polls there earlier this year. Not anymore. In lieu of an exit question, have a laugh at this early-voting estimate out of Florida that has Hillary winning, um, 28 percent of the Republican vote. Odds of that being true are near zero, but needless to say, if it is true, the election’s over already.

Update: Marquette’s Wisconsin poll isn’t the only disappointing result for Trump today. Just across from Quinnipiac:

FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45, Johnson 2
NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 – Trump 44, Johnson 3
OHIO: Trump 46 – Clinton 41, Johnson 5
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 – Trump 43, Johnson 3

The Ohio number is nice, but Ohio’s just one card in the four he needs. Florida is a true toss-up, Pennsylvania is still steady for Clinton, and that North Carolina number is ugly after yesterday’s blockbuster SurveyUSA poll had him up seven. Realistically, Trump needs every state here except Pennsylvania to have even an outside chance of winning. If NC slips away along with PA, he’s cooked. In fact, here’s what he’s up against right now:

Clinton's obvious map: MI, WI, PA, CO, VA, & NH. Her lead in these not large, but it's consistent. 69 October polls: 68 HRC leads & 1 tie.

— Taniel (@Taniel) November 2, 2016

He can win North Carolina and still lose the election if Clinton nails those six states. This is what I mean about the red wave needing to breach the blue wall somewhere. The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from October 27th to November 1st. Comey’s announcement was on the 28th, so most of the data here was collected after the FBI news.