First post-convention poll: Hillary up big

It’s an online poll. Conducted over a single day. That has Trump at 31 percent at a moment when he’s averaging 43 percent nationally.

Remember “The Gong Show”? Gonnnnnnng.

Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%.

A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support…

This week’s poll caps a month of wild swings amongst the electorate. A July 12 RABA Research poll showed Clinton with a 12-point lead. In a post-RNC survey on July 23, Clinton lost ground among men and seniors. Now Clinton has opened a 7-point lead among men, and earns 50% support among women. Clinton also saw seniors swing back her way, and now has a 16-point lead over Trump with those voters.

In other words, over the course of the past three weeks, RABA’s had Hillary winning in a monster blowout, then winning comfortably, and now back to winning in a monster mega-blowout. It’s possible that, because they’re only polling once a week, they would have captured the same post-convention bounce for Trump that other polls are picking up if only they had polled a few days earlier this week. It’s also possible, of course, that Hillary is getting a bounce herself and that RABA is picking up the first flush of it in detecting a sharp surge for her the day after her speech. But … Trump at 31 percent? Nope. The only way to make a number like that semi-plausible is if you’re throwing out all the “leaners” for each party and only counting committed, diehard supporters on each side. And even then, does anyone seriously believe Hillary Clinton is at 46 percent in a four-way race without leaners?

If you need any more reason to doubt this result, check out the gender split:


Hillary up 22 among women is extreme but sort of plausible. Hillary up seven among men? Gonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng.

There’s no easy explanation for why they’re getting this result. The sample isn’t skewed by party: They have it 38D/34R/28Other whereas the 2012 exit poll was 38D/32R/29I. I don’t get it. But even so, that’s not to say the poll is useless. Even if it’s tilted heavily towards Democrats to begin with, the fact that it’s tilting more heavily now suggests that Hillary really might be getting a bounce. Focus on the trend, not the topline. There’s also corroborating evidence of a trend towards Clinton from the LA Times daily tracking poll that I’ve linked a few times elsewhere this week. Remember the big news a few days ago when they had Trump climbing to a seven-point lead? That bubble has begun to burst:

Each day’s numbers are an average of the daily responses for the past week, meaning that today’s Trump lead of 4.9 points includes several days of responses that pre-date the Democratic convention entirely. If Hillary’s catching a bounce, you should continue to see Trump’s lead shrink here over the next week. We’ll know more about that on Monday and Tuesday when major pollsters start rolling out their first multi-day post-convention numbers.

In lieu of an exit question, here’s Gold Star father and newly famous convention speaker Khizr Khan pleading last night on MSNBC for Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell to listen to their conscience and repudiate Trump. You serious, bro? Mention conscience to this party and you’re apt to be booed offstage.