Ed will have the official primary live thread over in Top Picks but the rules of the road tonight are simple. Trump will win the state and win it big, quite possibly by 30 points or more. All of the suspense will come at the level of congressional districts. (This post is worth reading for background if you missed it earlier.) To sweep all 95 of New York’s delegates, which would be a nice boost to Trump’s chances of clinching 1,237, he needs 50 percent or better statewide and in each of New York’s 27 districts. If he wins a district with 49 percent or less, the second-place finisher gets one delegate from that district. If that happens in a lot of districts, Trump could conceivably have a “bad” night even though he’s on his way to a landslide win overall. That’s because his path to 1,237 is narrow and he needs every last delegate that’s within his grasp. If he walks away with, say, 70 delegates instead of 95 because Kasich and Cruz were able to hold him under 50 percent in most of New York, that’ll actually leave him slightly further behind the pace he needs to clinch the nomination despite his dominance tonight otherwise. My guess: He’ll nab somewhere between 85 and 90.

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