Poll: 50% now say Obama doesn't deserve reelection

After yesterday’s descent into hardcore eeyorism, I owe you this morale booster.

Don’t thank me. Thank Guy Benson for the pep talk.

American voters say 54 – 43 percent that the economy has begun to recover, a 51-point shift in opinion since September 1, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. This is a reversal from a September 1 survey in which voters said 68 – 28 percent the economy was not in recovery…

But the improved voter confidence does not help President Barack Obama who gets a negative 45 – 49 percent job approval rating, compared to negative 44 – 50 percent rating November 23. Voters say 50 – 45 percent that President Obama does not deserve reelection, compared to 48 – 45 percent saying no in November.


The economy’s getting better but, after a big rebound in November, his reelection numbers are getting worse:

Not sure how to explain that. It could be that as we creep closer to the election and voters start to tune in, they’re taking stock of his presidency and giving thumbs down notwithstanding the growth in jobs last month. (Criticism of Obama at the GOP debates, which have drawn big audiences, has surely helped.) Corroborating evidence: When Gallup polled respondents on how successful Hopenchange has been, fully 50 percent deemed O a failure versus 44 percent who said he’s a success — numbers nearly identical to what Quinnipiac found when it asked whether he deserves reelection. If the election was a pure referendum on The One, we’d be sitting pretty.

But of course, it isn’t:

This is revealing too:

As you’d expect, O’s share of the blame is increasing the longer he’s in office, but that majority that blames Bush is awfully stubborn. In fact, per the crosstabs, 55 percent of independents still say Dubya is more culpable than Obama. Makes me wonder if the hype over last month’s jobless numbers might end up being a curse for O in the long run. It’s easier to blame Bush for high unemployment if the unemployment rate stays flat; the more it dips and then starts to inflate again, the more likely voters are to conclude that it’s reacting to O’s policies, which in turn means he’ll bear more of the blame politically. Remember, Gallup’s already predicted based on its mid-month data that the unemployment rate will rise next month. If it happens, I’ll be mighty curious to see what the Bush/Obama blame game numbers look like in March.


Lots more interesting data at the link, including rosy numbers for the left on O’s contraception mandate and Planned Parenthood, but since this is supposed to be a morale booster, I’ll leave you with this:

Note the numbers among Democrats and independents. Exit question via Philip Klein: Is it worth trying to forecast the election now knowing that the Supreme Court’s ObamaCare decision will drastically change the dynamics of the race one way or the other?

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