Oh my: Gingrich's lead increasing in final hours before South Carolina vote? Update: Gingrich by 14

Normally I wouldn’t build a post around a single tweet but this one from PPP is too tantalizing to ignore. Polls open in SC tomorrow bright and early at 7 a.m.:


Newt posted his best numbers of our 3 day field period tonight

On Wednesday, they found Gingrich with a six-point lead. Yesterday they found the same. Today it’s … greater than six, although they haven’t posted the exact numbers yet. Jed Lewison of Daily Kos, which uses PPP as its pollster, guesses it’s now Newt by nine or 10 points, which makes sense if you assume another little boost from last night’s debate plus Perry dropping out and endorsing Gingrich. The exact numbers are less important, though, than the fact that Newt’s apparently putting distance between himself and Romney as time runs out. Hard to see how he doesn’t win now — dirty tricks notwithstanding. (He’s at 82 percent on InTrade, up more than 10 points from this afternoon.)

Via Newsbusters, here’s Scarborough claiming that all of the “conservative movers and shakers” he’s spoken to recently are angling for a brokered convention. You know who that benefits? Right: Ron Paul. Exit quotation from Dan McLaughlin: “Basically, if Romney sees Newt’s shadow tomorrow, it means six more weeks of primaries.”

Update: The numbers are out. Over the course of three days, his lead averaged out to nine points. But tonight? Double digits:


Gingrich’s lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife’s controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.

The other reason his ex-wife’s interview isn’t causing him much trouble is that there’s a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have ‘no concerns’ about what came out in the interview.


piece today for Huffington Post about ‘expecting the unexpected’ tomorrow is well worth a read. Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there’s a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that’s gone down in the last 48 hours.

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