“Mitt Romney, returning to his home state this weekend, won the Michigan straw poll, picking up more than half of the 681 votes cast by Republican activists.
“Mr. Romney won 51 percent of the vote in the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders straw poll, whose results were released early Sunday, far surpassing Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who finished second with 17 percent…
“Though 11 candidates were listed on the ballot, only Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry came here this weekend to address the hundreds of Republican delegates and party leaders who took the ferry over for the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. The Romney campaign has repeatedly stated that it is not competing in any straw polls, and that it places little importance on the results, but Mr. Romney made a point working the room and shaking hands at dinner before taking his seat — a contrast to Mr. Perry, who left quickly through the kitchen after he finished his remarks at lunchtime. Still, Mr. Perry’s presence on Mr. Romney’s home turf, aides said, was intended to telegraph that he plans to compete with Mr. Romney everywhere.”
“‘Perry’s showing in the straw poll was disastrous. He was here, he worked the crowd, and it just proves that the debate performance really undermined his support,’ said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who was at the straw poll in Orlando this weekend. ‘Perry’s gotta retool, reorganize and retrench very quickly.”
“Said one prominent conservative activist: ‘They’ve really got to go into damage control mode and right this ship, and they’ve got a relatively brief amount of time to do it. And if they don’t, I think he’s done.’…
“‘He should forget his GOP competitors and kick Barack Obama where it hurts. Obama would be smart to hit him back, because Obama wants the Republican he can beat,’ [GOP strategist Alex] Castellanos said. ‘One on one with the president of the United States – that’s all he has left now. And that’s not much.’…
“One Republican official who was ready to endorse Perry said he had been stunned by the debates and predicted that Perry ‘can’t fix it.’
“‘It is who he is. The things he needs to change are not changeable,’ the official said.”
“The conventional wisdom is dumping hard on Rick Perry. Politico blared Friday, in the wake of his fumbling debate performance, that he might already be ‘Texas toast.’ This tells me now is exactly the time to buy Perry stock. The reasons are simple. First, the likelihood that Perry will iron out the wrinkles and become a better debater and candidate over time is greater, and maybe far greater, than the likelihood that Mitt Romney will become more acceptable to conservatives. Second—well, let me save No. 2 for later…
“Perry strikes me as more likely to pass—among Republicans—the old ‘do I want this man in my living room for the next four years?’ test than Romney is. Who can possibly really like Romney? He’s like your boss, or the regional supervisor who comes by the office a few times a year. You tolerate him and suck up to him, but the experience is completely phony and awkward. I don’t know him and might have him wrong, but I’d just bet you a dollar that he doesn’t have many real friends. He has partners and associates and a swarm of acolytes who suck up to him because he’s rich. But he comes across as wooden, insincere (in a harmless rather than malevolent way), and totally emotionally unavailable. Perry? Well, I find him repugnant, of course, but I’m an East Coast liberal. I’m trying to look at this through others’ eyes. And I think he’s the kind of person Southerners in particular but conservatives everywhere, except maybe in the Northeast, can take a shine to. At least he seems to have some shards of personality.”
“I understand that Mr. Perry had a poor evening on Thursday night. But that seems like an awfully strong reaction to it — probably an overreaction.
“One misconception is that Mr. Perry’s standing had been declining in primary polls prior to Thursday evening. This simply isn’t the case, at least not to any degree of statistical significance…
“[G]iven the lack of appreciable momentum for any of the other candidates — and that all of them had been polling in the single digits — Mr. Perry will probably get a second and perhaps even a third look before one of them has the chance to emerge as the consensus alternative to Mr. Romney. In the parlance of the bond rating agencies, it is appropriate to put Mr. Perry’s campaign on a ‘negative outlook,’ but it is a little early for a full downgrade.”
“Florida strategist Ana Navarro, who is supporting Jon Huntsman, emails five reasons why Romney’s third-place finish in the Presidency 5 straw poll should be interpreted as a warning sign for the former Massachusetts governor…
“5) Mitt Romney has 100% name recognition amongst Florida Republicans. Less than 4 years ago, he spent lavishly in the state. And yet, people aren’t going to him, they continue looking for a Romney alternative. People that haven’t gone with Romney — whether donors, activist, electeds, whatever — it’s not because they don’t know Romney, it is because they do know Romney and don’t want to go there. I heard that over and over again these last three days. After 6 years of campaigning in Florida, he is still not connecting.”
“Christie does bring to the table a considerable reputation as an able executive who vanquished the public employee unions and their Democratic allies. But nobody has explained how a Northeastern governor with stands on both abortion and immigration that pass for conservative in New Jersey but not in most of the rest of the country can possibly compete for the votes of the GOP grass roots against people like Perry or Michele Bachmann. What Christie will do is to make serious inroads on Romney just at the time when he is gaining traction and erasing Perry’s once large lead. Romney’s path to the nomination is based on a belief he will win enough large states like Pennsylvania to offset the advantage his more conservative opponents have in much of the South and West. Christie might make that impossible without being able to win it either…
“I still believe Christie is too smart to go down a road that is unlikely to bring him the nomination. But if he does, his late entry in the race would be exactly what Perry needs and a terrible blow to Romney.”
“Daniels, who served as political director for President Reagan, wouldn’t jump to conclusions about the viability of Perry’s presidential prospects, though Perry has been scrutinized for his stance on immigration, blunt remarks and debate performances.
“‘I think it’s way too early,’ Daniels said. ‘There are so many of these [debates] – too many, maybe.’
“‘I’d cut him a little slack, give him a little time.'”
Via the Daily Caller.
“Perry is about one-half a step away from almost total collapse as a candidate.”
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