Serious question: Now that Romney has all but abandoned the state, why aren’t his supporters shifting to Pawlenty? Core Romney fans will stick with their guy, of course, if for no other reason than to deny votes to a candidate like T-Paw who poses a potential long-term threat. But what about all the Iowans who aren’t devoted Mittheads but simply prefer his more moderate managerial cred to Bachmann’s fire and brimstone? Why not get behind the only other candidate who’s (a) seriously contesting Iowa and (b) got the potential to go all the way? Mystifying.

Regardless, clock’s a-tickin’, Tim.

A new poll of likely caucus goers in Iowa by the Republican-leaning Magellan Strategies shows Bachmann with 29% of the vote. Next place finisher Mitt Romney has 16%. The Magellan field did not include Jon Huntsman, who is skipping Iowa, or the (so far) non-running Sarah Palin, Rudy Giuliani or Rick Perry…

Bachmann’s winning big with men (she’s up 18% over Romney in the Magellan crosstabs), women (9%), seniors (10%), social conservatives (22%), fiscal conservatives (17%) and tea partiers (33%). Three percent in the Magellan survey said “other” and 24% said undecided. More women are undecided (30%) than support Bachmann (24%) and it’s the same story with seniors (27% undecided, 26% support Bachmann.)

Pawlenty finishes with eight percent, tied with Herman Cain. But maybe you’re thinking this is an outlier? Okay: Here’s a new Iowa poll from Mason/Dixon also showing Bachmann ahead — 32/29 over Romney this time, with Pawlenty in third at, um, seven percent. At the rate she’s going here, I’m expecting T-Paw’s talking points to shift within the week from “We need to do well at Ames” to “Eh, Ames doesn’t always predict the caucus winner anyway.” Help him, Rick Perry, you’re his only vote-splitting hope!

Here’s his new vid touting his evangelical bona fides for the benefit of caucus-goers. It was circulated via blast e-mail from his newest campaign advisor: Sarah Huckabee, daughter of you-know-who.