Frank Luntz: I'll bet $10,000 that Trump doesn't run

Via Fox News Insider, obviously the man is part of the conspiracy to hide Obama’s birth certificate.

Honestly, between what Krauthammer said last week and this new item from CBS, I think he’s going to lose this bet.

Trump is now actively reaching out to a number of people, as he weighs whether he will get into the race and which advisers and consultants will help guide his campaign if he does.

“I don’t think there’s any question he’s serious,” [pollster] Jim McLaughlin told CBS News. “I think he’s running.”

John McLaughlin told CBS News that not only was Trump was “very serious” about making a presidential bid, but that he’s putting in the work to get ready and is “doing more of his homework and preparation than people might expect.”

He’ll be in New Hampshire tomorrow making eight, count ’em eight, stops. He’s tied for the lead with Huckabee in West Virginia (he leads among Birthers with 30 percent), and other candidates in the race or at the margins are either handling him with kid gloves or kissing up in hopes of attracting his supporters if Trump ends up not running after all. And yet, and yet

Fifty percent of Americans, including 31% of Republicans, say Trump would make a “poor” or “terrible” president…

His possible bid faces broad resistance: 63% of Americans, including 46% of Republicans, say they definitely will not vote for Trump for president. In comparison, 46% of Americans say they definitely will not vote for President Obama — significantly lower but itself a hurdle to winning the 2012 election.

Trump’s pandering to social conservatives isn’t going to sweep him to victory in Iowa, so if he’s serious about running, it’s New Hampshire or bust. Which raises a question: What if his polling remains semi-respectable into the fall — 20 percent in NH, say, good enough for a distant second to Romney — and he emerges as the best chance to upset Mitt in that state? Will RomneyCare-hating conservatives rally around him or will they stampede towards Pawlenty? Or is Trump actually Romney’s best friend since he’s peeling away Birther votes that would have gone to Mitt’s rivals? He really is the Joker in this deck.