10 p.m.: Southwest coming in; Update: Toomey, Sestak tied! Winners: Ron Johnson, Nikki Haley; Update: Kirk pulls into lead

Senate races this hour: A pair of gimmes in Utah and Arizona for tea-party darling Mike Lee and Maverick, respectively, and then the main event in Nevada. Taking back the House was business; this one’s personal. So personal, in fact, that if Reid pulls it out — and the chatter I’ve been hearing all day suggests that he’s going to — then I’m afraid I’m going to have to drop the melting bunny video on you. I don’t want to do it. I have to do it.

In the House, look out for Blue Dog Walt Minnick to be swept away in Idaho. You may remember him as the only Democrat this year endorsed by a tea-party group (an endorsement later rescinded). The other big one is Ruth McClung’s longshot bid to knock off hard-left Raul “Please boycott my state” Grijalva in AZ-7. I had high hopes for that one after reading about McClung on Michelle’s site, but since we’re now looking at a big wave instead of an out-and-out tsunami, I’m assuming it’s out of reach.

Update: McCain’s race is called promptly at the top of the hour. On CNN, the Nevada exit poll has it … Reid 48, Angle 47. Gulp.

Update: Another bad omen: Ken Buck is apparently underperforming in some parts of Colorado. One of the big topics of political chatter that’s shaping up tomorrow is how the GOP managed a big House sweep but not a commensurate Senate sweep — especially if Angle, Fiorina, Miller, and Buck all go on to lose.

Update: America has its first Latina governor — and she’s a Republican. Susana Martinez’s win will be lost in the shuffle tomorrow but the party’s going to want to give her a high national profile to help recapture some of the Latino vote they’ve lost. Keep an eye on her this year and next.

Update: Don’t look now but Nikki Haley’s up by just one percent with 61 percent reporting. Her lead is less than seven thousand votes. I can’t wait to hear the explanations for that tomorrow.

Update: I figured Sestak would jump out to a lead on Toomey since traditionally cities in Pennsylvania report first, but with fully 61 percent in, Sestak leads by four points. Here’s a prediction: If Toomey does get upset after leading in virtually every poll all year, you’ll hear a lot of theories tomorrow about O’Donnell’s influence on the Pennsylvania race. They’ve already been circulating, but no one’s paid much attention to them since Toomey’s always been expected to win.

Are we really going to drop this seat?

Update: Sestak’s lead now 2.5 points with … 81 percent reporting.

Update: And a surprisingly grim hour turns grimmer: Hickenlooper has defeated Tancredo for governor in Colorado and Deval Patrick, unsurprisingly, has been reelected in Massachusetts.

Update: Meanwhile in Illinois, Mark Kirk’s down almost two points with 69 percent in. I’m starting to wonder just how many Senate seats we’re going to net tonight after all. Five, maybe? Hard to believe 10 were on the table just a few hours ago.

Update: A photo finish in Pennsylvania: With 85 percent in, Toomey is now ahead by four thousand votes.

Update: Something’s very strange: The NYT’s vote totals for Pennsylvania don’t add up to the ones on the Secretary of State’s page.

Update: Sweet relief: Ron Johnson has beaten Russ Feingold. And it’s not close, or at least not yet: With 29 percent in, he leads by 15 points.

Update: The page isn’t loading as I write this, but The State is reporting that Haley pulled it out in South Carolina. The final margin will be only a few points.

Update: The Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s site has Toomey by 11,000 votes with 90 percent reporting. Cross those fingers!

Update: Good lord — nailbiters all around suddenly. In Illinois, with 77 percent in, Mark Kirk now leads by half a point.

Update: With 92 percent in, Toomey now leads by 15,000 votes. Alternate headline: “Jittery blogger switches from alcohol to heavy drugs.”