Suffolk poll: Brown 50, Coakley 46

Oh … my.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”…

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided…

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The difference in favorables is enormous. Coakley? 49/41. Brown? 57/19. Even worse for Coakley, 64 percent of voters think she’ll win — precisely the sort of complacency that has Dems terrified about turnout.

AP pessimism meter check: 1.0, down from 1.5 earlier today, indicating likely chances of a long night of ballot-counting that ends in razor-thin, tear-stained defeat.

Update: Just noticed upon re-reading that Suffolk has the same number of Dems crossing for Brown as PPP did last weekend — 17 percent, a shocking amount. Also shocking:

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

The Democratic sample is +24 — and Scott Brown still leads?

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