Report: Dems fear disaster as Coakley’s internal poll shows lead down to two

posted at 4:48 pm on January 14, 2010 by Allahpundit

I’ve never seen a race, I think, where the momentum was so completely and relentlessly on the side of one candidate. Enough for a red win in big blue?

Maybe.

I wrote a column last week in which I dismissed the chances of Republican Scott Brown actually winning next Tuesday’s Senate special election in Massachusetts. The race would be close, I figured — 53-47 for Coakley, or something like that — but the state’s blue tint would be just enough to save the Democrats.

I’d now like to qualify that prediction. Coakley’s internal poll last night, I’ve been told, showed her barely ahead, 46 to 44 percent. The momentum clearly favors Brown, and one very smart Massachusetts Democrat I know told me this morning that “this may be too far gone to recover.”

So I was wrong: Brown may actually win.

Two presidents campaigning for Coakley, the ghost of St. Teddy hovering over the election, Democratic groups outspending Republican ones by a two-to-one margin — and it’s a jump ball five days out. Or is it? A Research 2000 poll out today shows Coakley up by eight, which might be the usual R2000 tilt at work but doesn’t sound implausible to me. The fact is, Coakley still has every incentive to scare the hell out of her supporters by claiming the race is closer than it is. Ace says he’s fine with that, that winning a high turnout election in Massachusetts will only make victory sweeter, but … Brown can’t win a high turnout election. He can win an election with average turnout among Democrats if indies and Republicans turn out hugely for him (which they probably will), but with all the big names, money, and earned media the Dems are pouring in there, it’s less and less likely that turnout will be average. At this point, the bigger this election gets — and a video statement from the president calling it big makes it officially Big, I’d say — the harder it is for Brown. Even if that moneybomb is still exploding.

Here’s his new ad, which Ben Smith calls his first “really negative one.” AP pessimism meter level check: 2.0, down half a point from earlier this week, indicating a likely chance of heartbreakingly narrow defeat.


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Comments

Regular voters =

Brown + 2

Dead voters, Acorn thugs, SEIU thugs, ACLU thugs and boxes of unneeded Kennedy votes from 1942-2008 =

Croakley +3

ConservativeTony on January 14, 2010 at 5:37 PM

I dunno, maybe voters in MA are just as sick of politicians who suck up to lobbyists and ignore their constituents as the rest of the country is.

scalleywag on January 14, 2010 at 5:39 PM

PLEASE SEND AS MANY $$$$$$$$$$$$$ TO SCOTT THAT YOU CAN AFFORD!

OmahaConservative on January 14, 2010 at 5:39 PM

The more nationalized this race has become the more likely Brown will lose. People like myself and Brown himself have asked people to stay away so the election remained a small local race.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost in a blowout, because of the last minute rallying of the troops by the Dems. We saw something similar in the Tsongas race a few years ago.

Is all hope lost? Maybe not. Brown has to maintain his positive image, which sharply contrasts with the ineffectual Coakley. Also, he has to continue his message on jobs and tax cuts.

SED on January 14, 2010 at 5:40 PM

St. Teddy may even get a day pass from Hell to campaign vote for Coakley.

Cicero43 on January 14, 2010 at 4:50 PM

FIFY

tsj017 on January 14, 2010 at 5:40 PM

MarkTheGreat on January 14, 2010 at 5:26 PM

I hope I am right because the way it looks now, we have never never never had a better chance of doing something this big.

Holger on January 14, 2010 at 5:40 PM

If Brown ends up losing by a good margin, it will be a lesson that we have to stop bringing attention to races in blue states. Better if the Dims remain ignorant and happy.

Speedwagon82 on January 14, 2010 at 5:42 PM

The voters really shouldn’t anger two police unions!

joedoe on January 14, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Have a friend in New England? A friend of a friend? COLD CALL THEM!

EZnSF on January 14, 2010 at 5:51 PM

If Brown ends up losing by a good margin, it will be a lesson that we have to stop bringing attention to races in blue states. Better if the Dims remain ignorant and happy.

Speedwagon82 on January 14, 2010 at 5:42 PM

Bull.

How the heck are you going to hide a hard-charging GOP Senate campaign against a Democrat-owned state with a “historic legacy” on the line? Cant be done. We need to learn how to win in any situation.

alexwest on January 14, 2010 at 5:51 PM

I’m still to bummed from the Rose Bowl to get my hopes up again.

TexasDan on January 14, 2010 at 5:52 PM

If, and when, Scott Brown shocks the world, I don’t know if there’s enough bandwith on the internet to handle the Humpbot shockwave that will inevitably ensue.

russcote on January 14, 2010 at 5:52 PM

Brown wins and Dumb-0 better get some jam because his Marxist agenda is toast. Next up Chuck U. Screwmer, bada-bing!

Jayrae on January 14, 2010 at 5:53 PM

The more nationalized this race has become the more likely Brown will lose. People like myself and Brown himself have asked people to stay away so the election remained a small local race.

SED on January 14, 2010 at 5:40 PM

And this jives with the national call for a ‘money bomb’ how? Part of Brown’s strength and surge has been precisely because non-local people have *not* stayed away from the race.

Midas on January 14, 2010 at 5:56 PM

I believe that the Momentum is in the Brown campaign. After both unions having endorsed Brown, this is the straw that will break the Demorats hold on the seat.
God Bless you Lt. Col. Brown.

hawkman on January 14, 2010 at 5:57 PM

PLEASE KEEP SENDING SCOTT $$$$$$$$$$$$$

OmahaConservative on January 14, 2010 at 6:07 PM

Intrade has it at 77% Coakley. I want Brown to win, but the free market is still saying Coakley.

Dale on January 14, 2010 at 6:08 PM

And this jives with the national call for a ‘money bomb’ how? Part of Brown’s strength and surge has been precisely because non-local people have *not* stayed away from the race.

Midas on January 14, 2010 at 5:56 PM

I hope you are right. Of course, the Dems are going to spin it the way I described if they win regardless of accuracy. I’m sure they will say it was Sarah Palin’s fault somehow too.

Speedwagon82 on January 14, 2010 at 6:09 PM

..Jee-zus! Will someone show the eeyores the door before the gloom gets so think here we can’t see it?

Dunno about you people, but I sure as hell am not going to tiptoe through 2010 and 2012 in the hopes of not waking these a**holes up. I mean, did Patton say something like, “Shhhhhh, let’s sneak up to Bastogne and see if we can surprise the Krauts”?

VoyskaPVO on January 14, 2010 at 6:12 PM

think == thick, of course.

VoyskaPVO on January 14, 2010 at 6:12 PM

If Patton was as outnumbered at Bastogne as we are in Massachusetts, it would still be Nazi.

Speedwagon82 on January 14, 2010 at 6:16 PM

At this point, the bigger this election gets — and a video statement from the president calling it big makes it officially Big, I’d say — the harder it is for Brown.

It’s a bit late for that, no? — considering how the blogs have been promoting this race, non-stop.

Here’s his new ad, which Ben Smith calls his first “really negative one.”

Oh, well, if the essentially and verifiably objective Ben Smith says it, it must be so…yes, yes, of course.

Nichevo on January 14, 2010 at 6:18 PM

the ghost of St. Teddy hovering over the election

Yeah, he’s been brought back from hell to ‘help’ the desperate libs. It ain’t working.

Take this – fresh from this morning – the Boston taxi-drivers, locals, not from Somalia, can’t call the race.

A huge operative inside the D party can’t call the race – her husband is the top union/labor guy for Duval. This here Tuesday is going to be a lot of fun. It will rock the world.

Schadenfreude on January 14, 2010 at 6:20 PM

In Texas there is a saying: “Money talks and BS walks.” If Brown is going to win then send half your money to Brown and bet the other half on Intrade. Then use the winnings to support Sarah in 2012. I want Brown to win, but I won’t believe it until Intrade says that it is so.

Dale on January 14, 2010 at 6:25 PM

One more item – last night the local news in Boston said “this is too close to call; it wasn’t supposed to be like this but since the debate all has changed”.

They asked Coakley to tell a joke. She fumbled “well, I like humor but I can’t remember a joke”. The reporter laughed at her, saying that it’s not good because Teddy was such a jokester.

Well, I say he was a joke but that’s now mute.

She has no charisma, looks/acts 10 years older than she did during the debate. The air in Boston is very energized.

The independents will not budge. If Scott Brown stays on the offensive and doesn’t lose his nerve he can win this.

Schadenfreude on January 14, 2010 at 6:25 PM

I sure hope this makes every democrat in America pist at BO for prioritizing health care. (Not that it would have mattered – all of his policies suck).

Democrats in red states don’t even have a prayer if democrats in deep blue MA are struggling. As a brand, D, is for done.

Go Scott!

Carolina Kat on January 14, 2010 at 6:31 PM

Intrade has it at 77% Coakley. I want Brown to win, but the free market is still saying Coakley.

Dale on January 14, 2010 at 6:08 PM

Intrade handed New Jersey to Corzine until mid-afternoon on election day.

jay12 on January 14, 2010 at 6:32 PM

I hope you’re right J12. But Intrade is right more than they are wrong. Fingers crossed here. Maybe it will change over the weekend. Giuliani might help.

Dale on January 14, 2010 at 6:36 PM

jay12 on January 14, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Intrade is just like the Stock Market, like Currency Markets, like comodities. O

pen to market manipulation. Ask George Soros, that is how he made all of his money.

Holger on January 14, 2010 at 6:39 PM

Dems fear disaster…conservatives pray for hope and change!

orlandocajun on January 14, 2010 at 6:40 PM

Holger, there are always bubbles because of human psychology. But, over time, the free markets are a leading indicator. And they are usually correct.

Dale on January 14, 2010 at 6:44 PM

Intrade handed New Jersey to Corzine until mid-afternoon on election day.

jay12 on January 14, 2010 at 6:32 PM

It also said the Olympics were going to Chicago till the end.

Chuck Schick on January 14, 2010 at 7:02 PM

Just sent a hundred bucks in honor of hawkdriver and his company. Please feel free to do the same, or in honor of grandma whom ObamaCare wants to throw under the bus with pills.

OmahaConservative on January 14, 2010 at 7:06 PM

OmahaConservative on January 14, 2010 at 7:06 PM

I was just thinking about HawkDriver. Haven’t heard from him lately. Any news on him and his company?

PS: You’re a good person Omaha. Godspeed to you and all your efforts.

ronnyraygun on January 14, 2010 at 7:13 PM

Dems , bring out your deads.

bayview on January 14, 2010 at 7:30 PM

Regular voters =

Brown + 2

Dead voters, Acorn thugs, SEIU thugs, ACLU thugs and boxes of unneeded Kennedy votes from 1942-2008 =

Croakley +3

ConservativeTony on January 14, 2010 at 5:37 PM

Depressingly plausible.

Diane on January 14, 2010 at 7:35 PM

I’m praying hard, and hoping.

Brown is very close in polls. What’s the ratio of dems to republicans in Mass? 2 to 1, or better? Wouldn’t that stand to reason that in some of these polls, there are Dems saying their vote is with Brown? Otherwise, how could he be so close?

I don’t want to say he’ll definitely win, but I think there’s a good strong chance, some Dems in Mass…aren’t liking what Obama’s selling, or any of the other Dems in Congress, and want to send that message loud, and clear to Washington?

capejasmine on January 14, 2010 at 7:36 PM

Regular voters =

Brown + 2

Dead voters, Acorn thugs, SEIU thugs, ACLU thugs and boxes of unneeded Kennedy votes from 1942-2008 =

Croakley +3

ConservativeTony on January 14, 2010 at 5:37 PM

Alright, I need to address this issue here.

Look, no one wants Brown to win more than me. Not just because it would be the crucial 41st vote necessary to ensure that Democrats can’t just ram through whatever they want in the Senate (and I think we can all agree that even though they look to suffer significant losses later this year, there are several long months in which they can work their mischief), but because it would be deliciously ironic for a couple reasons – one, Democrats screwing up so badly that a Republican gets voted in to “Ted Kennedy’s seat” and two, how in just a year Obama did manage to unite Americans…..against him and his party.

All that said:

Cut this “the Democrats are STEALING the election!!!” garbage out. It’s MASSACHUSETTS. It’s gone heavily Democrat for years. A Democrat winning office in Mass is such a common occurrence that the fact that a Republican is even close has made this a major story. And while there’s reason to hope for a Brown victory, I believe Allah is correct in saying that the LIKELY outcome will be a Coakley win. If that happens, the election won’t be “stolen”. A Brown victory would actually be closer to a seat being “stolen”, although in an entirely different context.

Way I see things, as much as I’d like Brown to win, there isn’t really a bad outcome here, even if he loses – so long as he’s close. If he wins, it’s a bigger story than even the routing Democrats received in November; if he loses a close race, though, there’s still an important, and positive (for the GOP) message to take away, because it indicates a weakness in Democrats that’s even more pronounced and palpable than anyone anticipated, and just might convince the red-state Dems in the Senate to re-think their priorities from here on out.

Vyce on January 14, 2010 at 8:03 PM

For those who are not in the Boston area:

Radio and TV advertisements are wall to wall Senate ads, two, three, four to a commercial break.

The Brown ads are all about Brown’s stance on the issues featuring Brown.

The Coakley ads are all about Brown’s stance on the issues featuring Brown.

I can cover three talk radio stations where I am. It is 100% about Brown, whether pro or con.

This election is all about Brown. Coakley is just a foil.

So if you were to ask me the momentum is all Brown and is gaining in speed.

My take on the polls that I have been seeing (exception being the ridiculous Globe poll) is that they seem to be at least a week behind the mood on the ground.

This. Is. Going. To. Happen.

turfmann on January 14, 2010 at 8:25 PM

49-47 = Hope & Change. We can do this.

OB1 on January 14, 2010 at 8:50 PM

In terms of stealing the election: This state doesn’t need to steal elections because the Dhimmicrats always win here. They don’t have the election stealing mechanisms in place and people schooled in voter fraud like other places. Whoever wins will be a mostly fair win. Nothing’s perfect.

Mojave Mark on January 14, 2010 at 10:02 PM

Turfman, if you’re still around…and I know it’s late, so this is an open question.

Which way, if they don’t vote for their faux Kennedy, do you think the libertarians are tending?

marybel on January 14, 2010 at 10:04 PM

Knowledgeable sources in Massachusetts tell The Daily Caller that Republican candidate for Senate, Scott Brown, has raised at least $1 million dollars every day this week, most of it online.

Did anyone else see this?

marybel on January 14, 2010 at 10:07 PM

I am sick of the naesayers. You are a bunch of fat a$$ed lethargic dead heads.
Get your heads in the game. Psych yourselves up to kick some liberal a$$, losers. GROW A PAIR!

GAY HILLARY GUYS IN BOYSTOWN are working harder to elect good Republicans than you are.

Go to http://www.hillbuzz.org get motivated and lose these fat old fart “it can’t be done” losers.

Jayrae on January 15, 2010 at 7:53 AM

I am talking to you vyce. If you can’t contribute positively get out of the way. I am sick of your negativity. Play to win stupid. Gees, Republican women have more balls than the men. Palin proves that. Grow a pair pansy-a$$!

Jayrae on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM