Here we go. Could be a 10-point win for Owens, could be a 10-point win for Hoffman. InTrade is betting heavily on the conservative.
I don’t want to raise expectations too much, but if DH pulls this off and Christie squeaks through in New Jersey, we’re getting a humpbot cameo tonight. For the first time in a long, long time.
Update: The WDT results page is loading slowly. Try this one instead.
Update: Results are coming in very slowly but apparently exit polls had Hoffman by three, 50/47.
Update: With more than 10 percent of the vote in, Hoffman’s … down by seven. According to Marc Ambinder, Republicans in the district are very nervous. We’re not actually going to get a Christie upset and a Hoffman defeat, are we?
Update: Gingrich is writing his jeremiad about third-party challenges as we speak. From Dave Weigel:
WHOA – Hoffman splitting Madison County, where he was leading 2-1 in Siena Poll. Getting ready to say “Congressman Bill Owens.”
Update: A much-needed shot of hope from Erick Erickson: “Just talked to ppl close to Hoffman. They think he’s won. Owens votes in. Their sampling tracks with what we’re seeing.”
Update: At least one Hoffman supporter thinks it’s over.
Update: Hope and change — Hoffman narrowing the gap?
The Plattsburgh attorney has 57,050 votes compared to Conservative Doug Hoffman, a Lake Placid CPA, with 54,538 votes…
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted…
Owens is maintaining a 48 percent to 46 percent lead.
Update: Chuck Todd notes that there may not be a call in this race tonight given that the absentee ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow. Fair enough, but if Hoffman’s still behind by three or four thousand votes at evening’s end, how likely is it that he’s going to make up the difference by winning 75 percent of those ballots?
Update: FNC has called it for the Democrat. Points to take away from the loss: (1) PPP’s last poll was way, waaaay off; (2) Scozzafava’s endorsement must have had some impact on her supporters, as it erased the five-point lead Hoffman held in the last Siena poll after she dropped out; (3) third-party challenges, while sometimes warranted, are a very risky proposition (attention Glenn Beck!); (4) the win in New Jersey, where The One staked his own political capital in campaigning for Corzine, was huge compared to the loss here; and (5) as I said over the weekend, the actual result of this race is unimportant. The point in torpedoing Scozzafava and swinging the GOP behind Hoffman was to send a message to the Republican leadership that only fiscal conservatives will be tolerated henceforth, and that message has been sent even with Owens winning a squeaker. The loss is disappointing but it’s a detail on an otherwise great night.
So great, in fact, that it deserves something special. This special.
Update: He’s not going to make up the difference in absentees, especially since many of them were sent in when Scozzafava was still in the race. So the time has come.