New Siena poll has Hoffman up 5 in NY-23

posted at 10:05 am on November 2, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

The highly-respected New York pollster Siena conducted another survey in the wake of Dede Scozzafava’s withdrawal from the special Congressional election in NY-23.  The poll they released 48 hours ago pushed the embattled liberal Republican out of the race — and into endorsing the Democrat, Bill Owens.  It didn’t help, according to Siena’s new survey, which shows Hoffman ahead by 5:

On the eve of Election Day, Conservative Doug Hoffman has opened up a five point lead over Democrat Bill Owens in the race for the 23rd Congressional District. Republican Assembly member Dede Scozzafava still gets six percent support, but since her decision to suspend her campaign and support Owens, the number of undecided voters has doubled from nine percent to 18 percent, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters.

”Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava’s supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy.”

In other words, the race is in a state of flux that may not lend itself to predictions.  Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

However, the indications are that would hurt Owens more than Hoffman.  Since the Saturday poll, Hoffman has increased his draw of Republicans in the district from 50% to 63%, while Scozzafava Republicans dropped from 29% to 9%.  Owens now has slightly more independents than Hoffman, probably as a result of becoming the de facto Republican in the race.  Interestingly, Owens has lost a little ground with Democrats, dropping from 66% to 62%, while Hoffman improved slightly from 14% to 15%.

Siena notes that Owens leads in the northeastern part of the district, but has dropped a point since Saturday while Hoffman picked up a point.  Both men gained in the northwest at the expense of Scozzafava — which had been her stronghold until she withdrew — and are essentially tied.  In the south, though, Hoffman has gained nine points while Owens lost five, indicating a significant shift in the race.

One other indicator of a big shift: Hoffman’s favorables have increased dramatically.  He has gone from 23% just three weeks ago to 47%, and now leads Owens by ten points after Owens dropped three points since Saturday.  In fact, Hoffman has better favorables than Joe Biden, who is arriving today to campaign for Owens.  If nothing else, Hoffman has the momentum heading into the final stretch.

Update: Confederate Yankee wondered how he got on the ballot against Hoffman.  Should have been Bill Owens, not Bob.  My apologies.


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Add 6 for ACORN effect

faraway on November 2, 2009 at 10:08 AM

Keep it coming! I think I should go buy my lottery tickets today.

gophergirl on November 2, 2009 at 10:10 AM

Hoffman + McDonnell + Christie = humpbot.

BadgerHawk on November 2, 2009 at 10:11 AM

I’m assuming many of the local vote counters (clerks, etc.) in this district are GOP so the dem cheating formula might be a bit less effective?

Rational Thought on November 2, 2009 at 10:11 AM

The Siena poll is based on an honest election. With the democratic and republican nominees uniting and the percentage of illegal votes in normal elections, this lead cannot be considered a sure thing.

volsense on November 2, 2009 at 10:12 AM

Yes we can.

patriette on November 2, 2009 at 10:12 AM

Why would any Republican pick ScazzaFazzy Bear when her husband is an open Liberal Democrat union activist? Thats why Mary Matalin could never win an elected office.

Speedwagon82 on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

In fact, Hoffman has better favorables than Joe Biden, who is arriving today to campaign for Owens

Hopefully, this will nail it down for Hoffman.

a capella on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

I really hate that picture of Hoffman. I dunno why. I just do.

SouthernGent on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

More Scozza-mentum!

I’d say, it’s more like Sarah-mentum.

The Double-Dee effect is pretty minimal.

UltimateBob on November 2, 2009 at 10:15 AM

If Conservatives win the trifecta (it WON’T be the GOP as a Party; they mucked that one with Hoffman) it is indeed humpbot time!

michaelo on November 2, 2009 at 10:16 AM

And in the other House race that has been off the radar:

California 10th Congressional District race

Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher has been appointed Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Tauscher won her last race in this east Bay district by a 34% margin and received 65% or more of the vote in each of her races. Obama won the district by 32% in 2008. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, is leading in late polls by 10% over his GOP opponent, David Harmer. This race has been off the radar, with political attention focused on the other three. It would be an enormous upset if Harmer won, but if Garamendi wins by only 10% in the 10th, that too will represent a significant drop-off from Obama’s margin in 2008 of over 20% in one year.

If Republicans can win in New York 23 and New Jersey, it will be a very big night. In Virginia, the Deeds is done, so to speak. But in each of the four races, the Democrats appear to be headed for a collapse from Barack Obama’s margins in 2008.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/election_2009_forecasts.html

Terry_Dyne on November 2, 2009 at 10:16 AM

Hold the phone! Valerie Jarrett says this means repubs are becoming MORE marginalized:

dont taze me bro on November 2, 2009 at 10:15 AM

This from the person who claims that the Dover photo op was an example of transparency and visibility on the part of the President.

Yeah, he’s pretty transparent, all right.

UltimateBob on November 2, 2009 at 10:17 AM

In fact, Hoffman has better favorables than Joe Biden, who is arriving today to campaign for Owens.

But a loss does not reflect at all on the Obama administration.

WashJeff on November 2, 2009 at 10:17 AM

Joe Biden– Stand Up For Doug!

fourdeucer on November 2, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Hoffmentum!

pseudonominus on November 2, 2009 at 10:18 AM

UltimateBob, I use “Scozza-mentum” in an entirely ironic way.

Ed Morrissey on November 2, 2009 at 10:18 AM

The Polls haven’t included the “dead voter” contingent, which usually votes Democrat 100%.

Jeff from WI on November 2, 2009 at 10:20 AM

Living in CA, Garamendi has always been regarded as a Feinstien sort of democrat- in other words he’s not a lunatic socialist all the time. He’ll win easily, sadly.

jjshaka on November 2, 2009 at 10:21 AM

UltimateBob, I use “Scozza-mentum” in an entirely ironic way.

Ed Morrissey on November 2, 2009 at 10:18 AM

Indeed. That wasn’t a swipe, Ed, I’m just venting some Hot Air. ;-)

UltimateBob on November 2, 2009 at 10:21 AM

I hope Hoffman pulls this out, I PRAY he pulls this out!!!!!!

deidre on November 2, 2009 at 10:22 AM

Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

I can think of one former supporter that won’t take a pass:

“Dede is entitled to her own opinion, as is everyone, but I obviously disagree with her decision,” Burns told us today, a day after leaving the campaign. “I am supporting Doug Hoffman, because denying Nancy Pelosi another foot soldier is vital to restoring fiscal responsibility and common sense in Washington.”………Matt Burns (Scozzafava’s ex-campaign manager)

While Burns may not even be registered in the district, he should be standing right along side Hoffman in every appearance, reminding “moderates” what a liberal really looks like.

Rovin on November 2, 2009 at 10:22 AM

ACORN will easily fraud past that margin.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on November 2, 2009 at 10:24 AM

At the end of all the rhetoric and angst, the answer is for Hoffman to win and perform as a conservative and effective and persuasive elected Representative. Then he can win the trust of the district and run in a year as a Republican incumbent.

Jaibones on November 2, 2009 at 10:24 AM

The poll shows 18% undecided. That is huge.

Sue on November 2, 2009 at 10:25 AM

Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

I don’t think Cousin Pookie’s gettin’ off the couch for this one.

MarkBoabaca on November 2, 2009 at 10:25 AM

i like this…. a lot.

moonbatkiller on November 2, 2009 at 10:27 AM

Where are the trolls in this thread?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:33 AM

Anyone know the weather forecast for tomorrow? I hope they get rain and blowing snow, the most miserable weather for liberals.

fourdeucer on November 2, 2009 at 10:35 AM

What would the margin be if Hoffman had charisma and a baritone jazz DJ speaking voice?

In other not-news: David Frum wrong again.

Beagle on November 2, 2009 at 10:37 AM

Anyone up for some liberal livers roasted with Scozzafava beans?

Orange Doorhinge on November 2, 2009 at 10:38 AM

Does Newt still think he endorsed the right gal?

jdpaz on November 2, 2009 at 10:39 AM

18 Pookies, er percent undecided? I wonder what the effect of the Hoffmentum shift will be on those pooksters? Everybody wants to back a winner, right? There has to be some data on late independents who break one way or another.

ted c on November 2, 2009 at 10:40 AM

Still too close for my comfort.

WannabeAnglican on November 2, 2009 at 10:40 AM

Extremist slumlord Val Jarrett has a lot of nerve calling anyone other than her own cell of marxists, “extreme.” Jarrett spin isn’t good enough to mislabel what’s going on here.

BottomLine5 on November 2, 2009 at 10:40 AM

How many speeches does Pookie need before he drops his crank, hops off the couch and pulls a lever for a democrat? There’s got to be some regression analysis done on that one somewhere….

ted c on November 2, 2009 at 10:41 AM

SouthernGent on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

That’s cuz he looks like he’s trying to catch flies with how he has it open, but I don’t care as long as he wins. I want Demonrats to take it on the chin tomorrow.

gsherin on November 2, 2009 at 10:42 AM

Fingers crossed, the electorate in NY-23 makes the right call and sends Hoffman to Congress. Nothing against Owens for wanting to serve his community, but his likely support of Pelolsi between now and 2010 would be bad for all parties around.

Scozzafava is probably looking for a spot in the Obama White House at the moment. Good luck with that. Ugh.

itzWicks on November 2, 2009 at 10:43 AM

I really hate that picture of Hoffman. I dunno why. I just do.

SouthernGent on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

Me too! He looks like an idiot.

sammypants on November 2, 2009 at 10:43 AM

I didn’t even know I was in the race, but thanks for thinking i could run a close second place, Ed. ;-)

Bob Owens on November 2, 2009 at 10:43 AM

Porkulous.

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:45 AM

This is how the democrats appeal to their voters. They have callers on the same educational level.

txag92 on November 2, 2009 at 10:45 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

Anyone have a prediction for the Pookie-turnout in NY23 for tomorrow. I hear there’s an Xbox for every 100th Pookie courtesy of the DNC.

ted c on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

He looks like an idiot.

Hmmmmmm

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

The latest story? Dede is actually robocalling for the Dem. How in the world did this woman ever get the Republican nomination?

AnninCA on November 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM

I really hate that picture of Hoffman. I dunno why. I just do.

SouthernGent on November 2, 2009 at 10:13 AM

Me too! He looks like an idiot.

sammypants on November 2, 2009 at 10:43 AM

What’s this pic do for ya?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:47 AM

Hear that Dems? You’ve now been infantilized into “Pookie”–you’re no longer “thinkers” like you were two weeks ago, as opposed to “R”s who “do what they’re told”. Now, you’re expected to get up off your govmint couch, go pull the govmint lever, and then go back to your govmint subsidized haze like good little pookies that you are.

Labels.

ted c on November 2, 2009 at 10:48 AM

Obama has coined a phrase better than KoolAid drinker–Pookies. I have got to totally agree with him on this one. It’s far more descriptive of Democratic voters that Kool Aid Drinkers.

ted c on November 2, 2009 at 10:50 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

What’s a “Christianist”?

unclesmrgol on November 2, 2009 at 10:54 AM

A win in CA-10 would be a grand slam. I doubt that will happen, but a triple is more than enough to seal the deal.

clement on November 2, 2009 at 10:54 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

Thank you Andrew Sullivan.

This is a state that voted in worthless, unqualified, corrupt, incompetent idiot Hillary Clinton in as a Senator, what do they care?

NoDonkey on November 2, 2009 at 10:54 AM

This is how the democrats appeal to their voters. They have callers on the same educational level.

txag92 on November 2, 2009 at 10:45 AM

I got interested in politics when I was 13, after 9/11 happened. My eyes completely opened up to the world. This kid is nine, and can’t possibly understand the issues, nor how the world works. Him making phone calls is an embarrassment to the Democratic party.

nickj116 on November 2, 2009 at 10:56 AM

I wonder what Mr. FrumForum thinks about this poll!?!?

DrStock on November 2, 2009 at 10:58 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

And is it carpetbagging when the District moves away from you rather than you away from the District? He’s lived in the same house for years, and that house was in the 23rd for many more years than it has not been.

Besides, carpetbagging is an honorable trade — the term comes from Republicans sent south to work in the military governments of capture southern states. They were there for a purpose, to prevent the locals from reinstituting slavery. Sadly, it didn’t work, because the Democrats were too well entrenched.

Maybe it’ll work this time, if that’s what it is.

unclesmrgol on November 2, 2009 at 10:59 AM

A Marxist calling a conservative extreme is like Maureen Dowd calling Sarah Palin ugly.

In both cases take a look in the mirror and you will see yourself.

technopeasant on November 2, 2009 at 10:59 AM

“The Democrats have brought in Big Labor and ACORN to get out the Democratic vote.” (from Hoffman campaign email)

Is that true? Won’t the presence of ACORN turn off voters?

joedoe on November 2, 2009 at 11:00 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

Grow Fins! Great to see you on this fine morning. You have about 48 hours left of posting on Hot Air! Better get in all your irrelevant, moronic BS in while you can.

Missy on November 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

So, you just don’t like Christians, huh? How about Muslims? Do you hate them, too? How about Jews? Have you ever uttered the phrase “blankety blank Jew that he is” when talking about a political candidate you don’t like, Joe Lieberman, perhaps? We kind of need to know because under “general bigotry” we’ve got you in the column for “hates Christians,” but we want to be as accurate as possible. Are there any other religions whose members you instinctively hate? We want to keep up here. It’s instructive, you know? It teaches us a lot about liberal tolerance and diversity.

Rational Thought on November 2, 2009 at 11:14 AM

Grow Fins! Great to see you on this fine morning. You have about 48 hours left of posting on Hot Air! Better get in all your irrelevant, moronic BS in while you can.

Missy on November 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Wednesday morning will be a GREAT day :)

deidre on November 2, 2009 at 11:15 AM

Where are the trolls in this thread?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:33 AM

Question asked…

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

… and answered.

So, how is Hoffman a “Christianist?” Thought his message was essentially that NY 23 needs lower taxes, less pork etc. He is pro-life, but I didn’t hear about any sermons or “THEOCRACY!!!!” fears about him.

What are you talking about?

cs89 on November 2, 2009 at 11:17 AM

In the prelude to what appears to be a very happy off off election it is fun to read the comments page here. I just hope we can be half as happy in 2010 and 2012.

burt on November 2, 2009 at 11:19 AM

Why do liberals consider fiscal conservation and accountability “hate mongering?”

joedoe on November 2, 2009 at 11:24 AM

This is such a no-brainer. When Scuzza endorsed Owens, she essentially announced to the world that Hoffman’s been telling the truth the whole time. How could that not help him.

ElectricPhase on November 2, 2009 at 11:26 AM

Grow Fins! Great to see you on this fine morning. You have about 48 hours left of posting on Hot Air! Better get in all your irrelevant, moronic BS in while you can.

Missy on November 2, 2009 at 11:05 AM

Did Grow Fins make an idiotic bet that they would leave if Hoffman won?

Wow Grow Fins I honestly am starting to pity you. You’ve really done a number on yourself the last few days. No insults were needed for you to look stupid.

I just don’t know whether I should pity you because of how stupid you are or if I should pity you because you are obviously so filled with hate and/or blinded by your Democrat masters that you don’t even pay attention to what you say anymore, even if it makes you look moronic, as long as it defends and/or pushes the master’s agenda.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2009 at 11:29 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging….

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

Takes one to know one, Mrs. Clinton.

MassVictim on November 2, 2009 at 11:30 AM

Hoffman is done for, carpetbagging Christianist that he is.
Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

That’s really some phone-it-in,half hearted trolling, Fintard.Try searching for a new algorithm.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on November 2, 2009 at 11:31 AM

Where are the trolls in this thread?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:33 AM

Some of them may have overslept. Mom forgot to wake them up before she left for work.

CurtZHP on November 2, 2009 at 11:32 AM

Or maybe she heard the thumping from inside the bathroom and decided it was best to just slip out quietly.

CurtZHP on November 2, 2009 at 11:32 AM

In other words, the race is in a state of flux that may not lend itself to predictions. Much will depend on the motivation of Scozzafava’s former supporters, who may just take a pass on the election altogether.

That’s unacceptable. So-called moderate Republicans are the ones constantly bleating about being a big tent party. This is their opportunity to show that they mean it by getting out there and electing a conservative that doesn’t hold all their views. They need to do it for the good of the party.

Unless, of course, all that talk about inclusion and tolerance was just blather.

highhopes on November 2, 2009 at 11:36 AM

Where are the trolls in this thread?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2009 at 10:33 AM
Some of them may have overslept. Mom forgot to wake them up before she left for work.

CurtZHP on November 2, 2009 at 11:32 AM

Or maybe she heard the thumping from inside the bathroom and decided it was best to just slip out quietly.

CurtZHP on November 2, 2009 at 11:32 AM

–There’s not much worth saying, other than the PPP poll and prediction looks pretty silly this morning. With so many undecideds and with Scuzzi’s name on the ballot and the advanced vote.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 11:38 AM

A win in CA-10 would be a grand slam. I doubt that will happen, but a triple is more than enough to seal the deal.

clement on November 2, 2009 at 10:54 AM

A triple will send a chill wind through the Democrat Party. A win in CA (isn’t going to happen) would result in the Dems heading for the nearest bunker.

highhopes on November 2, 2009 at 11:39 AM

Oops. Sent it too quickly:

–There’s not much worth saying, other than the PPP poll and prediction looks pretty silly this morning. With so many undecideds and with Scuzzi’s name on the ballot and the advance/absentee vote, this could easily break either way.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 11:38 AM

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 11:39 AM

The libtards elected a President whose entire career has been spent carpetbagging and they dare insult someone who lives outside a gerrymandered district?

Speedwagon82 on November 2, 2009 at 11:58 AM

With so many undecideds and with Scuzzi’s name on the ballot and the advance/absentee vote, this could easily break either way.

And in the balance of power, it is meaningless. Except for the fact that the liberal out-of-touch RINO was sent packing by irate voters and a slew of endorsements for the legitimate conservative. The point has already been made no matter what the outcome tomorrow night.

highhopes on November 2, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Grow Fins on November 2, 2009 at 10:46 AM

What is a Christianist?

jimmy2shoes on November 2, 2009 at 12:19 PM

What is a Christianist?

jimmy2shoes on November 2, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Someone who has believes in a saviour not named “Barack Obama”.

NoDonkey on November 2, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Rush says that Scuzzywuzzy did Republicans a tremendous favor by endorsing Owens, because it demonstrates how RINOs are really Democrats in disguise.

Heat that, Newt?

Yephora on November 2, 2009 at 12:40 PM

With so many undecideds and with Scuzzi’s name on the ballot and the advance/absentee vote, this could easily break either way.
And in the balance of power, it is meaningless. Except for the fact that the liberal out-of-touch RINO was sent packing by irate voters and a slew of endorsements for the legitimate conservative. The point has already been made no matter what the outcome tomorrow night.

highhopes on November 2, 2009 at 12:07 PM

–I’ll challenge you on that. How could Scuzzy have been sent packing by irate voters from her district? The election is tomorrow.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 12:58 PM

‘Heat’ = Hear

Yephora on November 2, 2009 at 1:05 PM

–I’ll challenge you on that. How could Scuzzy have been sent packing by irate voters from her district? The election is tomorrow.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 12:58 PM

Potential voters, then. AKA poll respondents.

Someone sent her packing, after all.

Missy on November 2, 2009 at 1:09 PM

–I’ll challenge you on that. How could Scuzzy have been sent packing by irate voters from her district? The election is tomorrow.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 12:58 PM
Potential voters, then. AKA poll respondents.

Someone sent her packing, after all.

Missy on November 2, 2009 at 1:09 PM

–I think she decided she couldn’t win any longer. But almost all of the money that went to Hoffman came from outside of her NY district, as did almost all of the new support for Hoffman. That’s different from saying there was an uprising in her district.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 1:18 PM

Joe Biden’s coming in to NY-23 today? I predict the “Copenhagen Effect” on Owen’s chances.

PatMac on November 2, 2009 at 1:23 PM

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 1:18 PM

How’d ya feel about all of the foreign money that went to the Obooboo campaign, not to mention the Clinton campaign?

At least the money coming to Hoffman’s district wasn’t from foreign enemies.

Although in the view of the Democrats, the only enemies we face are domestic Republicans.

Everyone else is just a friend Obooboo hasn’t met.

NoDonkey on November 2, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 1:18 PM
How’d ya feel about all of the foreign money that went to the Obooboo campaign, not to mention the Clinton campaign?

At least the money coming to Hoffman’s district wasn’t from foreign enemies.

Although in the view of the Democrats, the only enemies we face are domestic Republicans.

Everyone else is just a friend Obooboo hasn’t met.

NoDonkey on November 2, 2009 at 1:24 PM

–The only stuff I can find says that Obama received about $3 million of contributions of $200 or less each from about 11,000 people outside of the US. But he received about $500 million of contributions from people giving less than $200 each, and, if I remember correctly, about the same amount from large donors. That’s different from the NY-23 race funding, where a majority is coming from national PACs and parties and out-of-district people.

Jimbo3 on November 2, 2009 at 1:53 PM