According to early exit poll data released by CNN, ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) leads Gov. Jon Corzine among indie voters, 58-33%. Indies make up 27% of the electorate thus far today.
For comparison, the latest Monmouth Univ. poll — which had an overall two-point lead for Corzine — showed Christie beating Corzine among indies by a narrower margin, 43-33%.
Hard to believe that Corzine wins, even in a blue state, if the indie margin is that big. Results are being posted here. Get comfy. This one will go for hours.
Update: For what it’s worth, one of Geraghty’s sources is hearing … Christie by one percent.
Update: Corzine’s InTrade numbers are collapsing, no doubt because of those indie numbers.
Update: Thinks are looking very good at the moment. With 44 percent of the votes in, Christie leads by five. Plus this from Geraghty: “Christie wins Glouster County, which Obama carried by 12.2 percent last year.”
Update: With 58 percent of precincts reporting, Christie leads by … six. I’m starting to feel good.
Update: RCP is feeling good too:
9:46 — NYT fixed Sussex County. 58% in, Christie leads by 90,000 votes. I don’t think there’s enough votes out there for Corzine to win. –SEAN TRENDE
Update: More from RCP on a huge upset brewing:
Some math here. Corzine trails by about 100,000 votes, with 66% reporting. Where does he make up that 100K? The big money districts for Dems are Camden, Essex and Hudson. Camden is 2/3 in with 70k votes. Give Corzine the rest of the votes and its about 30k votes. Do this type of analysis with Hudson and Essex and you get 50k or so for Hudson and 13k for Essex, which gets him his 100k. But there’s still Republican counties out there, and Corzine isn’t going to get 100% of those votes (probably). –SEAN TRENDE
Update: I knew Jerseyans wouldn’t reelect that deadbeat: NJ has a Republican governor, according to the AP.
Update: NBC just called it for Christie too and there are still 20 percent of precincts still to report. The race wasn’t even that close.
Update: The One can spin Virginia but he can’t spin this. Jonah Goldberg:
Remember their explanation for Deeds’ loss was that Deeds didn’t embrace Obama enough. Corzine hugged Obama and made the election about Obama in a state Obama carried by 15 points and where Dems outnumber Republicans by a wide margin. And he lost.