Predictions

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ’em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

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You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

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If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.

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David Strom 11:20 AM | April 24, 2024
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