Much depends upon turnout, needless to say, since the “expanded” likely voter model has Obama by seven. Split the difference and you’re in line with both Zogby and Rasmussen, which put The One up by four and five points, respectively. Hopefully that’s the first sign of the polls tightening as voters start to focus during the final week. Hasn’t shown up in the state data yet, though: The RCP map actually looks slightly worse today than it did last week, with Ohio having flipped to “Leans Dem” and Arizona now within seven points.

As for the Pew poll being circulated, I can only assume it’s an outlier notwithstanding the large sample. Obama by 16, thanks to an eight-point lead among voters 65 and older and a four-point lead in Republican states? Even I’m not that pessimistic. Exit question: Is it time for the ceremonial election predictions thread or should we wait until Monday?

Update: The Pew poll claims Obama leads among self-described early voters by 19. The new WaPo/ABC tracker is surprisingly in line with that, putting the margin at 21. Either all the Barry O voters are coming out early or else the expanded voter model is apt to be even more expanded than we fear next week.