Broder: Can Hillary win without blowing up the party? Update: Hillary by 12 in Indiana? Update: Within three in NC?

Sure, as long as Obama plays the good soldier and urges his supporters to unite behind her, but the longer the race drags on the harder it’ll be to get them to do it. Note the trend in this question from the new NYT/CBS poll:


Over the past week, people backing her because they dislike Obama are down 75%; over the past month, she’s up six points among people supporting her simply because they like her better. Meanwhile, he’s lost 13 points since the Wright presser in the “strongly favor” category while the number who support him because they dislike Hillary has almost tripled. That’s the first data set I can recall from any poll where his sore-loser contingent looks bigger potentially than hers. Why the sudden sharp spike in anti-Hillary sentiment, though? I can only guess it’s because they finally think she’s a legitimate threat to take this thing away from him — a perception borne out by the trend in another question from the poll:


I think Richelieu’s right that she’s going to flame out tomorrow and this’ll all be moot, but if she doesn’t then she’s got a pair of landslides coming up to help cement her momentum. If she wins Indiana convincingly and then puts Obama away by 25 points in West Virginia and Kentucky, HuffPo’s nuclear scenario (which used to be known as Politico’s nuclear scenario) becomes less far-fetched. Exit question: How well does she have to do the rest of the way before people start asking whether Obama can win without blowing up the party?

Update: “Significant damage,” says USA Today of its new Gallup poll: “Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.”



The major caveat? Scroll down to the end of the crosstabs and see how Wright fares compared to Bill Clinton and George Bush.

Update: Maybe I spoke too soon about her flaming out: Survey USA, which is usually reliable, says it’s Hillary by 12 in Indiana.

Update: Dude?