Poll: Obama's lead over Hillary down 11 points from last month; Update: Hillary within one in North Carolina?

Incompetent Clinton lackey Mark Penn espies “some significant developments in the last few days in the polling data” while being careful not to mention the elephant in the room. A 14-point lead pre-Ohio and Texas is suddenly a three-point lead according to, errrr … Zogby. Any reason to trust that result given its provenance? Yeah: Gallup puts Hillary’s national lead now at 49-42; six days ago she trailed Obama by six. Geraghty also notes some new highs in unfavorables for the Messiah, although the increase is modest.

Needless to say, the real test will be tomorrow’s dailies, which will incorporate reaction to the speech. Exit question: Obviously the Wright stuff (ahem) is working for her. If the numbers start ticking back his way, how long can she wait before trying to force it back into the media? If she holds whatever she’s got until just before the Pennsylvania primary (or just after, with North Carolina and Indiana a week later), she’ll take as much flak from the media for dirty tricks as he will for the sermons. I figure she’s got maybe two more weeks and then after that she’ll be blamed for whatever else he faces in this vein.

Update: Wow. It’s just one poll and just by a single point but that’s the first lead she’s had in the state since December. NC’s his post-Pennsylvania safety net; if she beats him there and in Indiana, i.e. his backyard, what do the superdelegates do then? Is Billy Jeff right?

Update: Oops — I misread that NC poll. He’s still ahead, but just by a point. I’ve changed the headline but the basic point remains. And what if that rumored Edwards endorsement suddenly comes through for her?

Update: If you want to see an even more dramatic swing, follow that link to the Zogby write-up and see how McCain’s doing these days against Obama versus how he was doing a few weeks ago.