I’m going to guess no, for the simple reason that a man who couldn’t sway enough conservatives to tip close primaries from John McCain to Mitt Romney probably isn’t capable of getting them excited about Hillary Clinton. But just because Rush’s fingerprints aren’t on it doesn’t mean something didn’t happen last night. Have a look at the party ID/ideology numbers for three of the closest contests thus far — New Mexico, which Hillary (barely) won, and Connecticut and Missouri, both of which were won by Obama.
The Messiah always does well with independents. In fact, sometimes he even does well in states where Hillary blows him out. Here are New York, New Jersey, and California:
New Jersey’s the only one where he doesn’t break 50%, and Hillary never does better than 43%. Now, here are Texas and Ohio:
Let’s look at breakdowns by ideology. Again, the three close contests — New Mexico, Connecticut, and Missouri:
And now a little Texas and Ohio nuance:
Hillary’s natural base: “very conservative” Texans.
Exit question: We did it, didn’t we?
Update: Dave Weigel concurs and notes a Sharpton-related data point from 2004 showing that Texans have a history of voting strategically.