Must-win is now a may-lose. He’s a 70% favorite for the nomination on InTrade as I write this; after tomorrow’s victory in Wisconsin plus another few weeks of campaigning, it’ll be 80% heading into March 4.

Look at it this way: Iran’s going to get the bomb anyway so it might as well happen in the context of a grand bargain struck by some dopey, naive avatar of “hope” and “change.” Exit question: How’s Maverick going to counter this big name, big charisma challenge? Exit answer: With Tim Pawlenty.

Update: If you believe PPP, his lead in Wisconsin is now double digits. And it includes both whites and women.

Update: A reminder from commenter darii: At this point, even a close win is a loss.