CNN poll: Hillary, Obama in statistical dead heat in … Texas
posted at 4:47 pm on February 18, 2008 by Allahpundit
Must-win is now a may-lose. He’s a 70% favorite for the nomination on InTrade as I write this; after tomorrow’s victory in Wisconsin plus another few weeks of campaigning, it’ll be 80% heading into March 4.
Look at it this way: Iran’s going to get the bomb anyway so it might as well happen in the context of a grand bargain struck by some dopey, naive avatar of “hope” and “change.” Exit question: How’s Maverick going to counter this big name, big charisma challenge? Exit answer: With Tim Pawlenty.
Update: If you believe PPP, his lead in Wisconsin is now double digits. And it includes both whites and women.
Update: A reminder from commenter darii: At this point, even a close win is a loss.
Blowback
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I almost feel a bit sorry for Billy Jeff. Imagine having to deal with her after this implosion?
JammieWearingFool on February 18, 2008 at 4:52 PM
We *** MUST *** get all our friends in TX to vote for Hillary! Now that McCain has the GOP nomination all wrapped up, a vote for Hillary is a vote for the implosion of the democratic party. They’ve been doing it to us for years…heh heh heh…let’s see how they like it when people outside the party screw around with their election results.
JustTruth101 on February 18, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Hey. At least its easy for southerners to pronounce!
lorien1973 on February 18, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Talk about spin.
JammieWearingFool on February 18, 2008 at 4:54 PM
McCain/Pawlenty: Of Amnesty
The jokes write themselves with: pawlenty == plenty.
lorien1973 on February 18, 2008 at 4:54 PM
Remember: Crossover.
amerpundit on February 18, 2008 at 4:54 PM
O.K. O.K, NEW PLAN! FOCUS ON ELECTING CONSERVATIVES TO CONGRESS INSTEAD, THE WHITE HOUSE IS LOST!
I`m sorry, got alittle paniced there. :)
ThePrez on February 18, 2008 at 4:54 PM
Not only does Hillary “Fear the Reaper,” she will tear the Democratic Party apart to reach her lifelong goal. Should be fun to watch. Popping corn and settling in.
Lets face it, if she loses the nomination, she’ll never be a credible candidate for President again. Bye bye Hillary. We hardly knew thee! Actually, a bit too much.
Ordinary1 on February 18, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Even if she doesn’t lose, most of the polls show she doesn’t have the double digit lead all the analysts say she needs not only to stop the Obama mo but to reassert herself as the lead candidate.
darii on February 18, 2008 at 4:56 PM
Here’s the problem, though. After the drawn out D nomination. People will be saying: McCain who?
cuz he will be, essentially, off the radar for 3 or 4 months.
lorien1973 on February 18, 2008 at 4:57 PM
This isn’t a good thing. Enjoyable as it is, we need for this thing to stay close longer for maximum chance of creating a major rumble. I’m afraid if Obama gets the nod, Hillary supporters will fret but be more inclined to vote, than Obama’s will if Hillary gets it through some sleight of hand.
a capella on February 18, 2008 at 4:58 PM
You might be right. However, if HRC can divide the Dems AND somehow secure the nomination, she will tank her chances. If Obama wins, which is likely, then Clinton’s efforts will galvanize support for Obama even more.
Best case scenario. Hillary STEALS the Democratic nomination!
Ordinary1 on February 18, 2008 at 5:03 PM
I believe Hillary could still pull it off. She can discover that she’s been a wronged woman, and separate from Bill. The victimized female spouse trumps a black man I think among voters who feel the issues.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:04 PM
Tain’t exactly a new thang. I graduated from UT in ’76 and was taught about that delegate selection process in a required course on Texas government sometime in ’75.
bdfaith on February 18, 2008 at 5:05 PM
If it can be done, Ickes is the man for it.
a capella on February 18, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Oops, I meant that last comment for the previous Hillary post about the Clintonistas just now learning that some districts are more equal than others.
bdfaith on February 18, 2008 at 5:06 PM
Excellent point. If Obama gets shafted, expect riots that transcend race. I would love to see Billy Jeff at the convention pulling a Nelson Rockefeller circa 1968.
laelaps on February 18, 2008 at 5:07 PM
OMG! I think Obama should SERIOUSLY consider 24/7 bodyguards.
kcd on February 18, 2008 at 5:07 PM
By pointing out that big names, big charisma, platitudes, happy-talk, touchy-feely phrases and hoping for change might make you a good Den Mother but a lousy Commander-in-Chief.
It could work.
fogw on February 18, 2008 at 5:08 PM
The victimized female spouse trumps a black man I think among voters who feel the issues.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:04 PM
True, but she can’t run on the Clinton record then…the Clintons always want it, not only two ways, but all their ways…and they make the ways up, as they need them.
Pity the lamps.
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:08 PM
Between that and McCain’s marriage to Paige Hopkins, he’s unbeatable!
Seriously, has anyone seen McCain’s wife and Paige Hopkins together? I didn’t think so :-)
Ordinary1 on February 18, 2008 at 5:09 PM
My prediction is Hillary is toast — Hillary’s team is screwing the pooch, big MO is with Obama and Billy Jeff is trying to shout his way back into the intern rich environment of the White House. None of it looks positive for Hillary – yet it is still hard to say she is done for.
jimwesty on February 18, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Dear fogw, it could, assuming that the majority in this country are still making use of their gray matter.
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Sorry, I don’t buy this. If you add in Michigan and Florida, Hill has a significant lead over Obama in votes and delegates. And don’t think for a second the Clintons won’t find a way to get those delgates counted. If she racks up significant wins in OH and PA, she’ll likely be able to claim a significant vote edge. of course, this assumes she doesn’t further collapse in the polls.
Clark1 on February 18, 2008 at 5:13 PM
Don’t hedge E. You know they’re not. Not to mention the fact that so many want to see the Obama, Clinton and McCain fail all at the same time. Another chapter for your book.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:15 PM
Too early to count out the Clintons.
Halley on February 18, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Agreed.
And McCain sure as heck isn’t helping himself by doing stuff like this.
Way to go, Macky boy. Hillary has “good character”, “honesty”, and “integrity”, hmmm?
Michelle said it all.
“When Hillary’s Democrat rival, Barack Obama, is doing a better job of attacking the ethically-challenged, truth-challenged, integrity-challenged Clintons than the GOP presidential front-runner, we are in deep doo-doo.”
Indeed.
Hawkins1701 on February 18, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Statistical dead heat in Texas,
I hope for Obama’s sake its not
the same crew from Harlem thats
counting up the votes!(snark!)
canopfor on February 18, 2008 at 5:18 PM
Bill Clinton Smacks Rude Obama Supporter In the Face?
TheBigOldDog on February 18, 2008 at 5:19 PM
This would be true if Hillary had not a made such a garbage mess of it by LYING (regarding honoring the rules of the DNC). Matter fact, Clinton didn’t say anything about it until she realized Super Tuesday was not going to be so …Super for her.
Sorta hard to even get away with Michigan at all…Since Hillary was the ONLY CANDIDATE who LIED and left HER NAME on the ballot.
But hey, I want her to keep pushing this envelope because the DNC will implode (and for once…her and Bill might need witness protection instead of all their enemies).
TOPV on February 18, 2008 at 5:20 PM
If not one single African-American in Texas votes for Obama, it’s their right!
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:20 PM
That really is an inaccurate poll. There is no way in 1 day that she lost 15 pts. CNN polls are probably some of the most inaccurate at the end of the day
msipes on February 18, 2008 at 5:21 PM
Yeah, but the MSM smells blood in the water and is circling that frenzied thrashing sound. I hope you’re right. Also, the longer it goes, the more it drains the pocketbooks. That may have some effect on Obama’s decision on whether to go government funding in the general, if he wins the nomination.
a capella on February 18, 2008 at 5:21 PM
JxD, I find it interesting that the Europeans, en masse, favor Obama, with the exception of Britain, favoring Hillary, as if the Americans should care at all whom the Europeans like/dislike. In fact, the Americans, if they’d use their brains, and look out for their own security/independence/good, should vote opposite of whom the majority of Europeans of today like.
Let’s write it together. It would be a pleasure. Sadly, it’s unfolding in front of our eyes, and doesn’t have a very happy ending, at least not one I can envision now.
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:26 PM
The Clintons have been preparing for this for their entire political lives, and they’re not going to just give up. They’ll work the superdelegates and lobby for Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated.
The best scenario, as Ordinary1 said, is for Clinton to steal the nomination with the superdelegates. That accomplishes two things:
A) We face Hillary, which is an easier path to the White House for us.
B) Alienates Democratic voters who voted popularly for Obama, finding their votes didn’t matter and the nomination was stolen.
Even if she’s unable to win in the end, she’ll drag it on for as long as possible. A fight on the floor of the convention will leave ~8 weeks for the general for Dems, having wasted a huge amount of resources and creating plenty of material.
amerpundit on February 18, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Been on sabbatical? Missed you around here.
fogw on February 18, 2008 at 5:27 PM
Right, CNN.
“Which should I pick? This rather fetching case of typhus or this absolutely darling outbreak of bubonic plague?”
Decisions, decisions.
Misha I on February 18, 2008 at 5:27 PM
I can’t say I disagree but it falls into the same category as “too good to check” for me
Ann on February 18, 2008 at 5:27 PM
True, but now it’s you who’s hedging, my friend :)
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:28 PM
A little OT, but burns me up:
From Drudge: Michelle Obama. “For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country,…”
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:28 PM
I certainly hope so.
The resulting internecine warfare in the Dhimmirat Party will make the Hundred Years War look like a mild, transient, minor disagreement.
I may OD on beer and chips while watching it. That, or I choke on the chips laughing.
Misha I on February 18, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Wouldn’t make much of a difference. We do have a fair number of blacks down here, but when it comes to Americans actually coming from Africa, the numbers are quite low.
Misha I on February 18, 2008 at 5:31 PM
All I hear is the cowbell.
Spc Steve on February 18, 2008 at 5:32 PM
Thank you for the correction. I aim for accuracy, and thus apologize for the confusion.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:34 PM
Good to be missed by you, witty and favorite one (you can say the most with the fewest words – admire/envy you for that :) – business trips, aftermath of conservative primary bloodbath, registration’s (few bad apples), etc. Miss the good ol’ days/commneters of HA, but, heh, must get with “change” as it’s on its way…hope (not that “hope”) that you’ll be here to sustain me through the dark years, sincerely,
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:36 PM
I GOTTA have more cowbell!
ThePrez on February 18, 2008 at 5:36 PM
been considering the ostrich myself lately. Shut off computer, cancel newspaper, unplug radio, and hide.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:38 PM
Well the attack on Mrs. O. commences. See Drudge.
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:40 PM
Here is the breakdown in the shop…DFW
Me…Hill crossover
Wife….Hopetobe a Hill crossover…having stomach pains.
Driver one….Tancredo write-in
Driver two….Obama (doubt he’ll actually vote)
Designer one…Obama
Designer two…Obama
Designer three..Obama-no Hill-no Winnie-the-Pooh
Office Manager/Buyer…Obama
Numbers Cruncher…Obama
Sales Clerk one….Obama
Sales Clerk two….Obama (doubt she’ll actually vote)
Assistant one….can’t vote/non citizen
Assistant two….can’t vote/non citizen
So thats 2 Hill, 5-7 Obama, 1 Tancredo, 1 won’t decide, 2 can’t vote.
I ain’t CNN…but that’s the official poll.
Limerick on February 18, 2008 at 5:40 PM
That would also be the best of delicious ironies, given how often the Dems accuse Republicans of “stealing” elections, i.e. every time they lose.
Not that they’ll look themselves in the mirror and realize that the whole “super delegate” thing does nothing but invite the stealing of primary elections through back room deals, oh no. But hey, I’ll take my clear displays of Democrat hypocracy whenever I can get ‘em.
Hawkins1701 on February 18, 2008 at 5:41 PM
I’m torn.
I have one Texan vote up for grabs.
Vote for Obama and end the “Clinton Era”, or vote Hillary and let the Dems keep destroying each other and their party.
…shower time.
Vigilante on February 18, 2008 at 5:43 PM
Entelechy,from the land up north,
we missed you to!
canopfor on February 18, 2008 at 5:45 PM
I would not be suprised if a bombshell scandal breaks soon invloving OB. The Hillary Has Eyes.
ronsfi on February 18, 2008 at 5:46 PM
Either way, you will have done your duty to fight evil. (McCain being stupidity, not evil.)
JiangxiDad on February 18, 2008 at 5:46 PM
All you Texans end the Clinton era- please. With the superdelegate nonsense, Obama is going to need a huge margin to get the nomination.
Who do you want to hear for 4 years? The screeching of Hillary of the dulcent tones of hope from Obama.
If you are thinking McCain has a better chance against Hillary, give it up. He has really reached out to conservatives in the last couple of weeks, hasn’t he?
Only a beta-male would vote for Hillary.
Valiant on February 18, 2008 at 5:51 PM
So how do I do that anyway? I’ve voted, but I’m not registered as anything so far as I know. I’ve never actually voted in a primary. Advice is appreciated.
Esthier on February 18, 2008 at 5:51 PM
I have not looked at the linked PPP poll, but the firm has generally adopted an extremely pro-Obama turnout model. And WI is historically a high-turnout stste, so vastly inflating Obama’s target demos will warp other demos.
Take that one with a shaker of salt.
Karl on February 18, 2008 at 5:53 PM
I can turn my speakers off if need be. Obama is more pleasant to look at and more pleasant to listen to, but he’s much more socialist than Hillary’s wildest dreams.
Esthier on February 18, 2008 at 5:54 PM
JiangxiDad, thanks for pointing me in the Drudge direction. This really deserves a thread to itself, as it is the hight of ignorance/stupidity from our so-called leftie intelligentsia.
Mrs. Obama:
First, she certainly doesn’t know her country, and her country’s sacrifices, so that she can be this ignorant without consequences, then.
And second, what the hell are those “basic common issues”? Certainly none have been identified/defined by her husband.
She is as arrogant, narcissistic, misanthropic and nasty as Mrs. Clinton.
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Too bad. It would have been fun to run against Hillary in the general. Nice to have an opponent with close to 100% name recognition and close to 50% negatives.
A Hillary nomination means President McCain. Obama nomination means President Obama.
dedalus on February 18, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 5:54 PM
Click
Esthier on February 18, 2008 at 5:58 PM
You know, I really would hate to see her lose the nomination and us have to go up against the messiha in November.
But I have to admit, I would be tickled to know that my state dusted her ass off for good!
I’m So Torn!!!!
conservnut on February 18, 2008 at 5:59 PM
Too easy for our kind, and w/b cowardly, you’ll agree. We must fight. The bad ones find the ostriches/weasels just as fast. They just don’t know it, or languish playing safe/dumb.
Great Lim – The Limreport was born :)
canopfor, thanks and I admire how much sustaining power you have with our politics, and messes. Glad you’re here too,
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 6:00 PM
White men Can’t Jump – 1992
Zaire67 on February 18, 2008 at 6:02 PM
Calls for a shower with a delousing substance.
Thanks Esthier – stuck on one thread today…
Entelechy on February 18, 2008 at 6:10 PM
I’m just going to sit back and watch the fireworks
bucko36 on February 18, 2008 at 6:25 PM
If you’ve already voted, it’s too late for you. If you are in a state that has not held their primary, however, you would either a) register as a democrat just for the purposes of the primary of course, or b) ask for a democratic ballot when asked…then vote for Hillary! But if you have friends in TX (or OH, too, maybe) then call/email/whatever it takes and explain to them how important it is that they get the vote out for the Hildebeest.
JustTruth101 on February 18, 2008 at 6:30 PM
Canopfor,thanks and I admire how much sustaining power
you have with our politics,and messes.Glad your here too;.
Entelechy on February 18,2008 at 6:00PM.
Entelechy: Just a concerned neighbor,hehe.
Just keep your bow into the political wind.haha.
canopfor on February 18, 2008 at 6:37 PM
Obamamessiah should avoid travel in light aircraft, or he could end up Wellstoned or JFKJred. Think Mena.
44Magnum on February 18, 2008 at 6:38 PM
I am as eager as anyone to get that witch out of my face, but if Obama loses, his followers will be disenchanted and will stay home in November because when Hillabeast swings right in the general election, she will totally alienate the Obamorons.
pedestrian on February 18, 2008 at 6:55 PM
A beautiful musical accompaniment to the schadenfreude of saying goodbye to the Clintons before we face the brave new world of the Obama administration.
My hat is off to you once again, Allahpundit.
cool breeze on February 18, 2008 at 6:57 PM
That could be right, but only if a lying a$$ crook and an lying a$$ bull$hiter balance each other out.
leanright on February 18, 2008 at 7:16 PM
I think Obama is oversold (is that the right word?) at 70% on Intrade. I also think, at 70%, the market has factored in a Wisconsin win for him. At that price, it certainly should have!
So, if he wins tomorrow night, no real change. If he loses Wisconsin, then he drops to 55-60.
commissar on February 18, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Sounds like it is time for Shillary to peel some onions and boo-hoo some crocodile tears yet again. Maybe she’ll time out a good weepy session at her next rally, during a stirring rendition of “The Eyes Of Texas Are Upon You”, ow whatever it is they yea-haa down there.
pilamaye on February 18, 2008 at 7:57 PM
commissar,
By your description, Obama would be overbought on Intrade currently.
Good analysis, but still, would you have the stones to buy the Hillary contract at better than a 2 to 1 payoff right now?
cool breeze on February 18, 2008 at 8:02 PM
My only thing is that if Hillary is taken out now, its over. If she goes on to the general election, despite all her negatives, there is still a chance she could win. UGH!
Vigilante on February 18, 2008 at 8:04 PM
I’m going to jump ship and vote for Billary. I’ll caucus for her, too. Please pray for me, everyone, that my head doesn’t explode in the process…
pullingmyhairout on February 18, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Just remember. IF Hilderbeast does get/steal the nomination, she HAS to place B Hussein Obama on the ticket. Therefore, we’d still be running against the Messiah, only with Billy Jeff now free to run around, totally unchecked (and actually encouraged) by the MSM. If BHO gets the nomination, no way is Madam Clenis on the ticket. The Clintons will do everything they can to get Dims to sit on their hands come November. Book it. You think 4 years is a long time for Hilly to sit and wait? Pfft. The Clenis will restock the coffers with America bashing foreign speeches and they’ll be ready again in 2012. She’ll be back in the Senate, biding her time. They’ll convince the Dims that they need a CLINTON to take back that White House (after they were so foolish as to put up a guy who wasn’t qualified enough to be president of a fraternity, much less our country.)
Sugar Land on February 18, 2008 at 9:37 PM
A lot could happen between now and March 4th…..the Hillary camp will get very ugly and the undecideds are 25% and could still go either way.
I don’t care what InTrade and others predict….it is not over until the…….well, someone sings.
Starlink on February 18, 2008 at 10:22 PM
Dick Morris was on O’Reilly’s telling Texas Republicans to cross over and vote Obama. Told them it was their duty.
danking70 on February 18, 2008 at 10:27 PM
I remember (vaguely) seeing BOC in 1974 at the Omni 41 theater in Hammond, IN. It’s good to see old Buck Dharma still has his axe chops down. During one of the songs they ran their guitar necks down each other face to face, and when they reached the ends, fireworks shot out of the tops of the heads. Awesome…
Big John on February 19, 2008 at 12:05 AM
I think, voting for Hillary would be strategically better.
Keep them fighting for as LONG AS POSSIBLE!
Chakra Hammer on February 19, 2008 at 12:23 AM
Omni in Hammond?
I knew that they had one in Schererville, IN..
Chakra Hammer on February 19, 2008 at 12:29 AM
That is the most selfless act of political warfare I’ve ever seen.
*Post Hillary defeat*
Dick who?
Saltysam on February 19, 2008 at 1:46 AM
Does Dick Morris think Hillary is more dangerous than Obama?
mimi1220 on February 19, 2008 at 8:35 AM
Saw them at the Alaska State Fair in Palmer about 10 years ago. They were playing on a stage about the size of a 1-car driveway, but they sounded good – very crisp, clear, well-mixed. No one had lost a step, that’s for sure. Ran into them later at the hotel (a converted teachers’ dorm). To a man, very very nice.
And “40,000 men and women every day” sounds a lot like Obama’s fundraising, too.
DrSteve on February 19, 2008 at 9:23 AM
I meant that I’ve voted in the past. I know I’m registered to vote, but I don’t believe I’m registered as either a Republican or a Democrat.
I’m in Texas, and much of my family is as well. I think I will talk to them, but I’m not sure it will be an easy sell.
Esthier on February 19, 2008 at 10:19 AM
total annihilation of both parties or not, that is one awesome tune!
jimmer on February 19, 2008 at 11:56 AM
“Does Dick Morris think Hillary is more dangerous than Obama?”
Dick Morris hates the Clintons even though he worked for Bill in the 90s.
Obama’s way to the left of Hillary with nothing of substance but his popular appeal. Hillary and McCain will be fighting over the middle. Obama and McCain won’t be.
danking70 on February 19, 2008 at 12:56 PM