They made up seven percent of the vote and broke 72-23 his way. Only two possible explanations: Either they really dig the guy and are planning to cross over again for him in November or they’re hot to drive a stake through Hillary’s heart and give us that match up with the young, likeable, dynamic media darling brimming with campaign cash that we’ve all been dreaming of. Either way, disastrous. Keep dancing on the train tracks, kids:
22% of those voting in Virginia’s Democratic primary said they were independents. Of this group, Obama defeated Clinton 69-30 — a better margin than he did among self-identified Democrats. And seven percent of the Democratic electorate yesterday said they were Republicans. Among these cross-over voters, Obama won 72-23.
Here’s a sample explanation from one of the fancy thinkers who made up that 50-point margin, pointing ominously to the effect of conservative talk radio on discouraging turnout for McCain (and Huck). Geraghty clings to the hope of an identity politics meltdown on the left but Obama gobbled up some of her firewall demographics last night (or did he?) so there’s no reason to think he can’t momentum his way into a cut of Latinos in Texas. He did it in Maryland and Virginia, after all. You don’t need any complicated calculus to see the basic truth in this, either: As he tears through February building his delegate advantage, he puts her in the position of not only having to win the rest of the way but to somehow crush him to regain the lead among pledged delegates and take away his argument that the superdelegates should respect the will of the primary voters.
There are 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22. For Clinton to even things up, she needs to get 345 of those 573 delegates, or 60 percent – the sort of margin she won in her home state of New York.
Obama’s dramatic victories Tuesday also put him ahead in the count of pledged delegates even if Florida, whose delegates have not been recognized by the Democratic National Committee, was permitted to seat a delegation.
Exit question: What now for our special, special lady? Is it time to start the Hillary ’08 Death Pool? Or should we do something more productive and take a SECOND LOOK AT McCAIN!?
Update: I remember reading about this last summer but ignoring it, mainly because we were sealing the tomb of Maverick’s campaign at the time.
We’ve found the head moron:
Q: Are you committed to working for and supporting McCain no matter who the Democratic nominee is?
McKinnon: If the Democratic nominee is Barack Obama, I will not work in the general election. I will, however, still support and vote for John McCain. I just don’t want to work against an Obama candidacy. I think a McCain vs. Obama race would be a great choice for the country…
Q: What is it about Obama that attracts you?
McKinnon: I don’t think Barack Obama needs the mirror of politics to reflect who (he) is. I think he has deep character and good judgment. I also think he’s wrong on some fundamental issues. But, I believe he is honest and independent and if he were elected, I think it would send a great message to the country and the world. (McKinnon said Obama is “wrong on Iraq and pulling out troops too early.”)
Update (Bryan): That’s ok. McCain has another adviser who’ll be happy to step up.
Update: No such thing as momentum, huh?