Unconfirmed exit polls: McCain 34.3, Mitt 32.6, Rudy 15.3; Update: Big conservative turnout; Update: 43% say Crist endorsement mattered

Geraghty’s got ’em. Absentee ballots aren’t included but I can’t think of a reason why they’d break dramatically differently, unless Rudy does a few points better from people who mailed theirs in when he was still riding reasonably high. InTrade’s already rocketing on the news but take that for the nothing it’s worth.

Ominously for Mitt, immigration seems not to have figured heavily.

We stand before the abyss, my friends, as VDH sounds the terrible cry: SECOND LOOK AT McCAIN!

Update: Fox is running demographic exit polls now. McCain wins among seniors and veterans — but only by a point(!) — and crushes Giuliani among Hispanics, 50-26. Romney wins on immigration, 45-26, but on the key issue, the economy, McCain wins by four.

Mitt crushes Huckabee among evangelicals.

Update: Looky.

Interesting. I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”

Why would absentees differ so much?

Update: Romney had better win because if Maverick scores a closed primary with conservative turnout unusually high, the “base hates McCain” narrative is in trouble for Super Tuesday.

Update: More exits from Fox. The Crist endorsement helped McCain, late deciders split almost evenly, 37-36 for Mitt. A plurality prefer McCain to Romney as commander in chief, 41-28. And most interesting: Rudy’s supporters say Romney was their second choice by a margin of three points over McCain.

Update: Dean Barnett e-mails to say that Geraghty’s numbers do include the absentees, which makes things grimmer for Mitt.