The gender gap might narrow from 2016 -- but that could be bad for the GOP

A YouGov poll this week gives us a quick snapshot of how divided women and men currently are in the battle for Congress. The poll found a 15-point gap between how men and women planned to vote on the generic ballot, which just asks if respondents are more likely to vote for a Republican or a Democrat in a House race. (Women favored Democrats by 10 points and men favored Republicans by 5 points, for a total gap of 15 points.) Two other polls released this week reported smaller gaps: A Morning Consult poll found a 5-point difference between women and men, and an Ipsos poll found just a 3-point difference.

It’s difficult to paint a complete picture using just three polls, so we analyzed all the September polls we’ve collected where voting patterns are broken down by gender. We found anywhere from a 3-point to a 34-point gender gap in the 12 polls we analyzed, and in every case, women were more Democratic-leaning than men; on average, the gap was 16.5 points. With a range this wide, the gender gap could be notably smaller or bigger than it was in 2016.