It's down to the wire -less than 24 hours to when polls open in the Makerfield by-election, designed to award Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Keir Starmer's chief rival for Labour's top spot and the Prime Minister's chair, the Member of Parliament (MP) seat required to check all the boxes off on his coup d'etat list.
As I explained yesterday, what was supposed to have been an easily arranged coronation for Burnham has lost a bit of luster on its crown thanks to the Labor Party's whole-hearted embrace of the concept of rejoining the European Union.
This fever dream has already been publicly endorsed by Burnham's competition-in-waiting, former health minister Wes Streeting. This has placed the Euro-centric Burnham in a tough spot, not because it's awkward to agree with a rival - it's not. They're in the same globalist party. But because Burnham has to win Makerfield first before globalizing to his heart's content, and Makerfield's British heart is very much Brexit, by some 65%. It also went strongly for Reform in the recent council elections at the beginning of May, and, well, there's no more Labourish fellow than Burnham.
So he's doing this cringy, 'the people have spoken on Brexit, and I believe in democracy' dance that no one believes a word of, to keep the controversy off the table until he's safely through tomorrow and on his way to being Prime Minister.
🔴 Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham hopes to become Britain’s next PM.
— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) June 17, 2026
But first, he has to win the Makerfield by-election tomorrow.
POLITICO brings you the latest from the final day of campaigning 👇
🔗 https://t.co/ueOuKYSSMp pic.twitter.com/iKCaiSaJGr
But life has a way of getting away from you, no matter the stanglehold you think you have on events or how baked in you have been told the end results are.
Twenty-four hours later, and one day to go, Andy Burnham is very much not a sure thing anymore.
In a shocking slide for someone considered one of the most popular Labourites in the country, Burnham's polls suddenly look like the graph for the UK economic performance.
Burnham is NOT the answer. #StickWithStarmer pic.twitter.com/wWb69xij2G
— Ted Smith 🇪🇺 (@TedUrchin) June 17, 2026
A twenty-point swing to the negative from last month.
Andy Burnham’s popularity has plummeted ahead of the crucial Makerfield by-election, a poll has shown.
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 16, 2026
The Labour leadership hopeful had an approval rating of minus 7 per cent in a poll by Ipsos, down 15 percentage points on the previous month.
🖇️ https://t.co/SM9SWalZKP pic.twitter.com/OzMdZhwhuu
Now, there are Burnham policy positions that might well play in Greater Manchester, a liberal, longtime Labor stronghold, that won't have been as warmly received in more working-class Makerfield if anyone's heard about them.
Andy Burnham voiced support for migrants to have immediate access to welfare and social housing
The Labour candidate for Makerfield, and the potential future Prime Minister of Britain, Andy Burnham has consistently voiced support for a policy that would allow migrants immediate access to Britain’s welfare state and social housing.
During his tenure as Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham has repeatedly urged ministers to “abolish the no recourse to public funds policy”, a measure that has been standard on temporary visas since 1980 and prevents migrants from immediately accessing Britain’s welfare state.
This is not an inconsequential statement. It is the setting out of a radical policy proposal that is akin to the border policies of the Green Party, which also call for the “abolition” of NRPF.
On Burnham’s mayoral website is a news item from 2019, in which he explicitly calls for a commitment from party leaders to “abolish the no recourse to public funds policy”, something echoed in 2023 when he called for Tory ministers to “end NRPF”. He also called for asylum seekers to be given the right to work, something that would be a huge pull factor and only exacerbate the small boats crisis.
That could well impact an opinion or two negatively in Makerfield.
Adding to the tailspin will be Rupert Lowe's devastating report on the rape gang crisis (David's outstanding report on it here), in which the popular Greater Manchester mayor and potential next British PM's role is front and center.
Burnham blocked the release of the rape gang data for three years over 'privacy concerns.' But it wasn't the victims' data being protected - it was the rapists'.
🚨ANDY BURNHAM - NAMED AND SHAMED- RAPE GANG INQUIRY
— Basil the Great (@BasilTheGreat) June 16, 2026
- FAILED to piece together a full picture of the information necessary to combat the rape gangs that still operate in his area
“What I had come to see and believe is that whilst the PR machine [was] wheeled out very well… pic.twitter.com/D1BqiM3qV6
Residents in Makeerfield have been quizzing the wannabe PM about his role in the scandal during every campaign door-knocking trek.
'You don't know the facts,' Burnham would arrogantly tell his sidewalk inquisitor. 'I did such and such and such and such.'
*sniff*
A Makerfield resident confronted Andy Burnham while he was out canvassing about his lack of support for the Rape Gang Enquiry…
— WeGotitBack 🏴🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@NotFarLeftAtAll) June 7, 2026
Credit: James Holmes pic.twitter.com/9x4Wt6EeyM
Well, they know the facts and exactly what Burnham did not do now.
Burham's interpersonal people skills and appeal during such glad-handing have also been judged as lacking.
So it seems not all is well in the Burnham camp in Makerfield as its been reported his popularity has plummeted 20 points and that's after coming into contact with voters! This just shows you people have had enough of lies and career politicians and people are seeing through them… pic.twitter.com/XDWbuOOLd5
— Alexandra (@Alexandr4Denman) June 16, 2026
...This just shows you people have had enough of lies and career politicians and people are seeing through them , that includes Reform ! As the Makerfield by election draws ever nearer its looking better and better for Restore Britain !
That's all at the granular, local level. One step up is more scandalous with a Labour label attached to it, as that party has to fill the Greater Manchester mayor's seat - one of the plum mayorships in the country - should Burnham win tomorrow.
There has been some hanky panky in the rules for electing a mayor, all in the name of holding off a surging Reform Party. In May's city council election, during which a third of the Greater Manchester council was up for reelection, Labour did manage to hold onto its majority. However, they lost 24 seats (going from 87 to 63), the Greens increased their seats by 17 (!), and Reform UK won 7 seats, posting its first-ever wins.
Labour is very nervous everywhere.
Labour accused of changing election rules to stop Reform UK winning
Labour has been accused of changing election rules to stop Reform UK winning a potential mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and former MP, said the Government was rushing to change the way mayors are elected.
Peers on Tuesday approved the Combined Authorities (Mayoral Elections) (Amendment) Order 2026, which would revert mayoral elections to the supplementary vote system, where voters get a first and second preference candidate choice.
It reverses an order made in 2022, which had mayors elected using the first-past-the-post system.
But that's not the only scrap that makes Burnham, Starmer, and Labour look ludicrous on the eve of a must-have election for one of them.
Burham is counting his chickens before they are hatched - this always looks exceptionally rude, arrogant, and overconfident.
For example, he won't call a vote for three days if elected. Burnham will just give Starmer the time to clear out his things and go quietly into that good night.
EXC: Andy Burnham will not challenge Keir Starmer in first 72 hours if he wins the Makerfield by-election. The Greater Manchester Mayor instead wants to meet with the PM to discuss a timetable for his departurehttps://t.co/1FmAYpaJNf
— Alexander Brown (@AlexofBrown) June 17, 2026
A 'bloodless' coup instead of a messy street fight.
Andy Burnham to issue Keir Starmer final ultimatum if he is denied 'bloodless coronation' after Makerfield by-electionhttps://t.co/XN2Tk9TBxG pic.twitter.com/EFXH52QZpL
— GB News (@GBNEWS) June 17, 2026
Oh, what a capital fellow!
For his part, Starmer is having a bad case of the public yips, begging Burnham not to hit him in the face, and he'll give him a cookie if he behaves when he wins.
Sir Keir Starmer extended an olive branch to his prospective leadership rival Andy Burnham ahead of the Makerfield by-election, where Burnham is narrowly expected to beat Nigel Farage’s Reform
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 17, 2026
Follow the latest ⬇️https://t.co/7pRuqFtKkQ pic.twitter.com/3yz8uA6aK9
Seriously. Starmer used an interview at the G-7 (!) to wimp out.
"Starmer is living in a different world"
— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 17, 2026
Sky News' Political Editor @BethRigby on the PM's hope that Andy Burnham could have a "big role in government" if he returns to parliament pic.twitter.com/NEykC8B2Ju
Terribly sad, and all playing out right there in public.
🚨 BREAKING: STARMER BEGS HIS OWN EXECUTIONER TO SAVE HIM.
— David Shaw (@David90shaw) June 17, 2026
Keir Starmer is so terrified of being ousted that he is now publicly begging Andy Burnham to take a "big role" in his government. 🤡
You honestly have to laugh at the absolute desperation of this man.
Burnham is…
...Burnham is already measuring the curtains in Number 10, and Starmer thinks offering him a job will stop the coup.
They are pretending to be best mates on television while holding knives behind each other's backs in the dark.
The entire Labour establishment has collapsed into a pathetic Westminster comedy.
RT if you want this corrupt circus gone! 🔁🇬🇧🔥
Tomorrow should be something else.
They're seven hours ahead of us here in CST in the UK, so we'll have a good idea by tomorrow afternoon how the land lies, and if there have been any nasty surprises on any sides.
Oh, and how I do love those.
