At the end of April, Democrats across the country were licking their chops. There was a sense of chaos in the markets and that optimism was ebbing across the country in the face of the Trump tariff wars.
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Consumer confidence slid to a five-year low at the end of the month, coming in under an already gloomy predicted lower score.
Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly five years in April as concerns about tariffs and trade uncertainty weighed on the economic outlook.
The Conference Board said Tuesday its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points to 86 in April, which is the lowest reading since May 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had projected the index would slide to 87.5.
If it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all.
The Wall Street Journal went all out, climbing aboard the SS Trump Tariff Disaster and sounding the collision horns.
WORST SINCE 1932
The Trump rout is taking on historic dimensions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed almost 1,000 points on Monday and is headed for its worst April performance since 1932, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500’s performance since Inauguration Day is now the worst for any president up to this point in data going back to 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Worries about trade restrictions and the prospect of President Trump firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have investors bracing for greater losses ahead. Corporate earnings reports are rolling in, along with executives’ tariff-dented outlooks for the months ahead. Few think the administration’s negotiations with trade partners will yield results soon enough to ease the strain.
Meanwhile, counterweights that usually strengthen when stocks fall—such as government bonds and the U.S. dollar—are also under pressure, leaving investors with few havens to wait out the storm.
“It’s the hallmark of the ‘no confidence’ trade,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. The Charlotte-based firm trimmed its U.S. equity position several weeks ago to favor more international stocks. “It’s impossible to commit capital to an economy that is unstable and unknowable because of policy structure.”
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Holy crap, the meltdown was back. And we were doomed.
Democrats were giddy with anticipation of a financial bloodbath - they already had their shiny dresses for the funeral picked out.
But then something weird happened.
A week later, it was being called simply a 'volatile month' and 1932!!!! was forgotten hyperbole as all the averages finished the month somewhere around where they'd started it.
U.S. stocks staged a late rally Wednesday to end one of their wildest-ever months on a high note, overcoming early-session declines that followed a weak report on economic growth.
...The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, or around 142 points, Wednesday, to finish April down 3.2%. The S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, ending the month down 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%, but gained 0.9% in April.
Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have climbed for seven straight sessions, with the S&P 500 posting its largest percentage gain over that length of time since November 2020.
Disappointed, downcast Democrats rehung their party frocks, still in anticipation of wearing them...someday.
But it wouldn't be this April.
Maybe May held hope that American consumers would lose faith in Trump's tariff arm-twisting and Ricochet Rabbit method of deal-making, and be so beaten down by the constant stream of media hyped stories.
WalMart raising prices because TARIFFS!
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Christmas cancelled because of Chinese and TARIFFS!
Just wait until price hikes hit because TARIFFS!
The litany of doom warnings about dire days ahead on every side would surely sway confidence even lower into the 'no confidence' zone.
Surely.
Analysts had cautiously predicted May's consumer confidence number to come in at 86, and progressives had their hands on dress hangers in their closets, trembling at the thought of the mad celebration that would ensue should the number have tanked even further.
Delighted to disappoint them and in a big, BIG way.
A double-digit, blew the expectations out of the water number - 98.
US Consumer Confidence Jumps Most in Four Years on Trade Truce
US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low as the outlook for the economy and labor market improved amid a truce on tariffs.
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence increased by 12.3 points to 98, marking the biggest monthly gain in four years. The figure exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
More importantly, there were gains across the board.
...A gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months surged by the most since 2011, while a measure of present conditions climbed as well, data released Tuesday showed. The improvement in confidence was broad across age and income groups as well as political affiliations, with the strongest gains among Republicans.
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Combined with this morning's news of Trump's delay of punitive EU tariffs, well, everyone had a smile on their faces - even traders.
Dow rips 600 points higher on EU tariff delay, consumer confidence surge: Live updates
Stocks rose Tuesday after President Donald Trump said over the holiday weekend that he agreed to delay tariffs of 50% on the European Union.
Trump on Sunday said that he would push back the 50% levy deadline on the EU to July 9 following a request from Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. That comes after Trump last week proposed an import tax of 50% on the EU beginning June 1.
I want to see progressive hopes and dreams of a revival continuously crushed in the cruelest, most unforgiving manner possible. In ways, like this number, that signal a unified, utter rejection of their policies and rhetoric.
I want Americans to continue expecting great things from this administration, while understanding they take time to manifest.
Expectations component of Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index surged by 17.4 points in May ... largest increase since May 2009 pic.twitter.com/l7OqcmhGdf
No one expected great things from POTATUS and his handlers. People wanted to survive intact and had no reasonable expectations for even that much, given the clearly adversarial relationship between the White House cabal and the American way of life.
The optimism is catching, and confidence is high - there is a plan, even if getting to the desired result is a wild ride.
I don't believe Americans can be beaten into turning on Trump so easily anymore, simply because events go sideways for a spell.
JUST IN - U.S. recession odds drop to record lows as consumer confidence surges, far exceeding expert forecasts. pic.twitter.com/XVEZ5b2pxI
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