Wow. I did not see that coming and this story is blowing up by the minute, so hang in here with me.
I did foresee the part about the Trudeau government caving and ordering everyone back to work.
Not quite: the teamsters had put forward a strike notice but they were locked out by the employer -- and the lockout isnt over until the binding arbitration process is complete, which depends on the CIRB
— David Gordon Koch (@davidgordonkoch) August 22, 2024
The unions are still playing coy and hard to get early on, but the railroads are getting back up to speed.
The Canadian government has moved to end Canada’s freight rail work stoppage — the first to shut down both Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City simultaneously.
However, while the two railroads say they are preparing to resume operations after Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon sent the dispute to binding arbitration, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference says it will maintain picket lines while it reviews MacKinnon’s action.
If the two Canadian rail lines shut down simultaneously, as has never happened before but did yesterday, the one word being used in every single quarter to describe the effects is "catastrophic."
How bad could a prolonged rail strike of CN and CP-KC be? Catastrophic.
— govt.exe is corrupt (@govt_corrupt) August 22, 2024
No trains, no ports, no trucks. Bare shelves could sweep the country. It's economic armageddon and has never happened in Canadian History. pic.twitter.com/HKGvle82vQ
In his best Valley Boy speak, Fidelito assured the nation yesterday that his government was "taking this SO seriously."
Which certainly had to engender confidence on both sides of the border, considering the economic stakes of a prolonged lockout/walkout.
...The economic consequences will be swift if the lockout lasts for days. Canadian National and Canadian Pacific control about 80% of the country’s rail network. The railways have had labor disruptions before, but it has been decades since both freight carriers had a major strike or lockout at the same time.
For many commodities, there are no good shipping alternatives. Companies that sell wheat, fertilizer, chemicals and other goods will feel the pinch right away. Grain futures rose slightly in early trading Thursday as traders assessed the impact. A lumber company in British Columbia announced plans to cut production at a sawmill within days.
The shutdown will have “ripple effects” across the continent, “especially given uncertainty toward potential strikes at US ports and given soaring global shipping costs driven by avoidance of the Red Sea and Suez Canal,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt said in a note to investors.
“Some of these shocks could be transitory (strikes, though of uncertain length and magnitude) and some longer-lived (geopolitical) but they risk feeding off of one another at an inopportune moment for sectors like agriculture and retail orders for the holiday shopping season,” Holt said.
Fidelito also has to balance the looming economic catastrophe with the fact that he is hugely unpopular. That means keeping the few souls still supporting him - and who keep his little coalition in power - happy.
Those would be the unions/laborers/uber-progressive side of the parliamentary house whose leader is a fellow by the name of Jagmeet Singh, head of Canada's New Democratic Party. His strategic partnership with Trudeau's own liberal party is the ONLY thing holding the coalition together ("propped up" *snickers*) and keeping Trudeau in the Prime Minister's chair.
...The labor disruption creates an urgent problem for the federal government. Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon denied Canadian National’s request to impose binding arbitration last week and encouraged parties to reach a deal at the bargaining table. The minister also met with the parties and federal mediators on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Trudeau’s government is propped up in parliament by a deal with the pro-labor New Democratic Party, whose leader, Jagmeet Singh, had said he would oppose government measures to intervene on behalf of employers against workers. But it’s still an option for the government to introduce legislation that would force an end to the impasse.
Fidelito very much likes his chair and will most often act to preserve it before doing what his countrymen need.
Ergo, he was on the horns of a dilemma and chose the path of least resistance by allowing events to almost spiral out of control. Only then exercising the power of the government to compel everyone - including workers - to knock it off and get back to work. Trudeau's hopes were that by splitting the baby, he only annoyed the various warring factions - voters/businesses and unions - avoiding a potentially fatal blow to himself.
Brother Bingley's Canadian connections felt like Trudeau might still face a no-confidence vote but be able to squeak through it and then "wrap himself in the Canadian flag."
This is the part I did not see coming when word of this strike first surfaced.
It does make one wonder how, if there are only two railroads that basically service the entire country and the Canadian economy would sink like a stone if the traffic on them stopped for even a few days, why on earth do the union contracts for both expire at the same time and open the country up to this danger?
It turns out they usually don't, and specifically for that reason. The contracts have been purposefully staggered a year apart from each other to prevent the possibility of just such a calamity. Okay - then how did THIS happen then?
Thank the same union-butt-kissing Prime Minister who will do anything to stay in power.
When last year's contract (I'm not sure whose) was up for negotiation, there were new regulations to be considered. So, said the union asked the government for an extension to get a deal done that would comply with everything.
I don't know how onerous these new rules were, but the Trudeau government gave the Teamsters a ONE-YEAR extension, which brought their contract expiration date to when?
I have full confidence you can do that #mathz blindfolded, even if the Trudeau government couldn't. And here we are.
🇨🇦Every 24 hours of rail strike costs Canada 1B dollars. 💸💸💸
— Contrarian (@ContrarianTribe) August 22, 2024
But that’s not all and you will be shocked to hear the rest of the story!😳😳😤👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/89cjP2TOGC
The "government" has now promised to "investigate" how the two contracts came to expire at the exact same time, crippling the country, and uncover who the real murderer was.
BUT WAIT! THERES MORE!
In the time it's taken me to lay all this out for you - like an hour or so - events have taken a lurch to the unexpected.
CN railroad ended their lockout and opened their gates last night at 6 pm so employees could come on back to work. The Teamsters who service that railroad were told by their union heads to take down their picket lines and prepare to return to the job.
Everything was hearts and roses.
It seems there's been a change of plans. A little over an hour ago, or about 10:40 Central, someone finished typing, and a 72-hour strike notice appeared out of nowhere. The Teamsters announced they would be walking off the job Monday at 10 am unless something changed.
The Teamsters union has served Canadian National Railway (CN) with a 72-hour strike notice, hours after saying it was taking down picket lines and workers were returning to the job.
"Please find this letter as official notice to the company of our intention to withdraw the services of our combined membership of approximately 6,500 members," reads the notice sent to CN on Friday morning by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference.
The notice says that the union does not believe any of the ongoing issues between the railway and the Teamsters to be "insurmountable" and that it remains open to negotiating with the company in order to prevent any "further work stoppage."
#BREAKING: The Teamsters union have delivered a strike notice to CN Rail, declaring that they will walk off the job at 10:00 AM on Monday. pic.twitter.com/Jz3phVkZHi
— Canada Proud (@WeAreCanProud) August 23, 2024
Adding insult to injury, not to mention a delicious sense of schadenfreude, Mr. Singh has issued his own threats this morning regarding Fidelito's creative coalition baby splitting.
“If Justin Trudeau brings in any measure that attacks workers’ rights, we will vote against it — confidence or not, agreement or not, we will vote against it."
— True North (@TrueNorthCentre) August 22, 2024
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh threatens to break the NDP's coalition agreement with the Liberals. pic.twitter.com/HY41vD68Rn
That flag-wrapping might be on hold.
People who remember the brutal authoritarian response an unhesitating Trudeau invoked to harshly deal with the Canadian Freedom Truckers' Convoy are also keeping tabs. What will his government do this time as the economic situation becomes more perilous and envelops the entire country, vice some traffic jams and annoyance honking in Ottowa?
Trudeau's Hypocrisy -
— Robert Beaudoin (@robertbeaudoin2) August 22, 2024
The rail strike will cost a whopping ~$1 Billion a day to the economy. Trudeau will go surfing.
The Freedom Convoy cost a fraction of that, ~$124 Million a day. Trudeau ... invoked the Emergencies Act.#TrudeauMustGo https://t.co/KkVYYNAyv6
As to US concerns about the economic disruption, Mayor Pete was actually located earlier this week. Buttigieg opened his mouth to offer his version of Trudeau's "taking this SO seriously" comment.
...US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said earlier this week that his department had been monitoring the situation closely and tracking the flow of vital goods to the US. The US Chamber of Commerce has called on the Canadian government to intervene.
Which in Pete-Speak roughly translates to he "saw a blurb on CNBC about trains." We all know how he loves them.
As for the railways in Canada, we are at an impasse. The Teamsters union had been open about the possibility of defying a "back to work" order from Trudeau's emasculated government. It seems under the myriad boards and courts of the Canadian system, there are plenty of avenues to avoid being directed to get back to work.
...The new strike notice is set to interrupt Canadian National’s reopening of its network, which would have taken days before reaching previous shipment levels. The company began winding down its operations more than a week ago in anticipation of the stoppage.
...The Canada Industrial Relations Board has not yet ruled on Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon’s request for binding arbitration. He also asked the board to extend the workers’ expired contracts until new ones can be signed and for railway operations to resume “forthwith.”
Even if the board orders arbitration, it’s unclear whether that decision will force the employees back to work. Last month, the board ruled WestJet Airlines employees had a right to strike despite a government request for arbitration.
Unless you're a trucker honking in downtown Ottowa.
As one fellow I listened to said, "Wait 'til everyone runs out of toilet paper."
Heh.
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