Yay! More jobs! Boo! No interest cut!
In any event, that's the headline based on the numbers that came in this morning.
The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in May, countering fears of a slowdown in the labor market and likely reducing the Federal Reserve’s impetus to lower interest rates.
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 272,000 for the month, up from 165,000 in April and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 190,000, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
And, not breaking the trend, there were downward revisions yet again to previous months' job numbers.
...Previous months’ reports saw small revisions: The March gain dropped to 310,000, down 5,000, while April’s saw a cut of 10,000 to 165,000.
At least they're consistent with revising the smoke and mirrors.
Some are even characterizing it as a "vibrant" labor market.
...Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, the data at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn’t have to rush to lower interest rates. As inflation runs above the central bank’s 2% target, there’s scant evidence that higher rates are endangering broad metrics of economic growth.
...Even with the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, the labor market appears vibrant.
But beyond the marquee numbers - which invariably go down, sometimes repeatedly, in revisions in subsequent months - is it really "vibrant"? "Vibrant" enough for POTATUS to keep claiming we Luddites just don't appreciate the great things he's done for us?
The great American comeback continues.
— President Biden (@POTUS) June 7, 2024
On my watch, 15.6 million more Americans have the dignity and respect that comes with a job, and unemployment has been at or below 4% for 30 months.
I will keep fighting to lower costs for families like the ones I grew up with. pic.twitter.com/4ga0goWTiv
As for those "jobs created" numbers? Where exactly are the jobs being creat...OH.
The current marriage of business and government may be one of the single greatest threats to individual liberty in American history.
— Craig Chamberlin (@CraigChamberlin) June 7, 2024
These forces were meant to compete and balance one another - not work together.
Who will be left to protect the individual from tyranny?
If you squint around the big numbers, the little things are looking kinda fugly. If you're a president whose approval is already in the toilet as far as overall handling of the economy goes, and your formerly rock-solid minority base is starting to feel a little fractious, maybe you should refresh your pitch.
When blacks and Hispanics point out in multiple impromptu interviews that they don't believe Biden's done anything for their communities, a good part of what they're talking about is jobs. The underlying data in today's report proves it's not just a feeling.
Minority Americans are losing ground under this administration.
...Meanwhile, the jobless rate for Black Americans rose to 6.1% from 5.6%. For Asian and Hispanic workers, respectively, it rose to 3.1% from 2.8%, and to 5% from 4.8%.
...Gould noted that the trend was slightly stronger for Black men, who saw their unemployment rate jump to 6.4% from 5.2%, versus an increase to 5.2% from 5% for their female counterparts. The economist attributed this increase to labor force volatility and pointed out that the number has pretty much risen back to its previous levels from earlier this year.
And whatever this argle-bargle means here.
...“We obviously need to watch out for what’s happening with historically marginalized groups to make sure that the recovery gets experienced,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
WHATEVER
These numbers are a walking Trump ad. It was only five years ago, as much as the media tries to bury it, that the same media was putting out pieces with headlines like this:
There have never been more Black and Hispanic Americans in the workforce, Friday’s Labor Department job report showed.
The jobless rate for Hispanics hit a record low of 3.9% in September, while African Americans maintained its lowest rate ever, 5.5%.
...“The best numbers that we’ve ever had: African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Women, everything. We have the best numbers that we’ve had in many, many, many decades, ” President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday.
...“We have the best economy we’ve ever had, we have the best jobs numbers in 51 years, the best unemployment numbers that we’ve had in a half a century,” Trump added. “People are working, they’re making money.”
EVERYONE "experienced" the Trump economy, and right now, they are remembering what it was like when they did.
Oh, that's bad juju for Joe-Pa.
But there is more bad news to be found digging through in the numbers. Ed had some in his Headline post this morning on it. "Softness" in the labor participation rate signals a cooling economy.
Here's the part of the May jobs report that shows a slowing economy.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) June 7, 2024
4% unemployment rate
-250,000 in the labor force
-408,000 people employed
Labor Force Participation Rate falls to 62.5%
This is a different story than the strong job gains. Fed (and everyone else) will need… pic.twitter.com/gUF9YhGevj
But what really torqued my shorts was to be found the Household Employment charts and my favorite FL financial guru highlighted. There seems to be a divergence between who lost jobs and who gained them, and it's not who you'd be rooting for.
This is kind of disturbing.
— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) June 7, 2024
From April to May:
Employed.
Foreign Born: +414,000
Native Born: -663,000 pic.twitter.com/oFdVdgYWgw
That's a whale of a drop. And how nice for the foreigners, whoever they are and however they got here.
It’s hard to live in a world where every government statistic and statement must be assumed wrong until it can be validated. The level of gaslighting they conduct on the American people, with the willing help of the establishment media, is staggering. For once, I would love to…
— Mike Spicer (@ncmikes) June 6, 2024
How does this happen, Mr. President?
"The economy" is the economic state of the elite in the same way "our democracy" is the democratic consensus of the elite.
— Miguel Maruso (@miggymaru) June 7, 2024
The plebs don't factor into what they care about.
Right on cue, here's Politico with a strong "DIVERSITY IS OUR STRENGTH" assist as they carry the Biden campaign's water.
...But a surge in foreign-born workers participating in the labor force — whether new arrivals or immigrants already here — has helped bring the job market into better balance and prevent a “wage-price spiral,” where higher pay and higher prices feed into each other. That’s aided the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation, at least in the short term.
I've heard there are POTATUS campaign officials out spreading the word that these American vs foreign job numbers are "nativist" and "racist." Well, of course they are. What else would these socialists call them? Populist?
Nah. That's too Euro-trash.
There's a good chance some of the labor market's no longer participatory 663K AMERICANS used to sit in offices all over the country. That would certainly dovetail nicely with another economic indicator that dropped this morning. Turns out there's a buttload of empty commercial buildings lying fallow all over the country. Most of them aren't paid for, either, so that's going to cause its own set of interesting problems when it's refinancing time.
...~$1.7 trillion of commercial real estate debt is projected to mature from 2024 to 2026.
This means that ~30% of outstanding commercial real estate debt will need to be refinanced at much higher rates.
All while 70% of these loans are held by small banks that remain under pressure from the regional bank crisis.
CRE is beyond bear market territory.
JUST IN: The US office vacancy rate hits a fresh record high of 19%, surpassing levels seen in both 2008 and 2020.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 7, 2024
In other words, roughly 1 out of every 5 offices in the US is currently vacant.
~$1.7 trillion of commercial real estate debt is projected to mature from 2024 to… pic.twitter.com/rcnAweIli2
All middle-class America knows is that #Bidenomics has left them "gasping for air."
A majority of middle-class Americans are experiencing financial hardship that they expect will continue for the rest of their lives, according to a new poll.
Findings published by the National True Cost of Living Coalition show that 65% of Americans whose incomes are 200% above the national poverty line – which is about $62,300 for a family of four, often considered middle class – said they are struggling financially.
Respondents include those with high school diplomas and graduate degrees as well as blue- and white-collar workers who live in both rural and urban America.
...Tellingly, about 40% of Americans said they are unable to plan beyond their next paycheck, while another 46% said they do not have $500 saved for emergencies.
“The economy is booming, and yet many Americans are still gasping for air financially,” said Jennifer Jones Austin, CEO of the Federation of Protestant Welfare Agencies and co-chair of the National True Cost of Living Coalition. “They simply don’t have the breathing room to plan beyond their present needs.”
With Trump out on the campaign trail, they're starting to remember what it was like when they could breathe.
That's the last thing Biden needs.
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