It’s taking no time at all for the Biden administration Red Sea plan to fall apart. In point of fact, it started to crumble almost as soon as our lumbering, blundering SecDef Lloyd Austin announced the inspirational program.

The new multi-national taskforce with the thrillingly inspirational name – “Prosperity Guardian” – was a call-to-arms of sorts for nations whose vessels transit the Red Sea/Suez Canal routes, and who were being threatened by repeated Houthi attacks, both drones and swift boat piracy, in what’s known as the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) Strait. That’s the southern chokepoint where the Red Sea squeezes between Yemen and Djibouti as it makes a left turn before reopening into the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, and the open waters of the Indian Ocean beyond.

That eastern shore of Yemen flanking the strait is all Houthi-held territory.

As of yesterday afternoon, SecDef was still touting his close and continuing contact with the French part of the operation.

I spoke with 🇫🇷 Minister @SebLecornu yesterday to discuss the ongoing threat posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. France and the U.S. are working in concert to address these reckless and illegal attacks and ensure the safety of mariners and global shipping.…

— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) December 21, 2023

Now, I’m not sure what happened between that cozy phone call and a couple of hours later, but, holy SMOKES. Someone must have sacre bleued in someone’s cornflakes, because the French abruptly decided they aren’t going to play.

…Out of our naval allies, only ten signed up for Operation Prosperity Guardian. Two of those refused to comit any hard assets. Two had few assets to supply. And one – France – stormed out of the first operational meeting in disgust and quit the group to go protect its own ships.

Say whut, again?

It appears that #France is withdrawing from #OpProsperityGuardian and will be conducting their own escort operation.

They are making overtures to other European Union nations to escort EU-owned vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb against the #Houthi.

The delays in the… https://t.co/9QdNoM75rW

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) December 21, 2023

…The delays in the implementation of the operation seem to be the issue. With US-flagged vessels stuck in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, it does appear that there are issues in its implementation across department lines – @DeptofDefense @StateDept @CENTCOM @USNavy @US5thFleet.

This does not bode well that the #Houthi can disrupt 15% of the world’s trade and there is no means to escort ships by the @USNavy.

Delays in the US implementation of their own plan? The US should have been gaming this from the beginning. The Houthis are not a surprise. They’ve been doing this for ages. There absolutely should have been contingency plans already locked on before those US naval vessels were even rerouted to the area.

Now, I would say, “How does this happen?” but I know exactly how this happens with this gang of incompetent poseurs. The military is nothing but board pieces to them and there’s not a single strategic thinker – God forbid anyone with actual military, in this case specifically naval, experience – at the highest levels calling the shots.

So far, Operation Prosperity Guardian is neither prosperous nor is it guarding anything. Aren’t you glad the grownups are back in charge? From the administration that brought you the failures of Afghanistan and Ukraine, and the U.S. border. Israel, are you watching? https://t.co/T3qFkIf5kt

— Bill Roggio (@billroggio) December 22, 2023

And if the next bit of information the maritime community is talking about is true, it explains everything, and God help us.

…Next rumor to confirm is that @JakeSullivan46’s team at White House has running much of the coalition building directly with minimal Us Navy or MARAD involvement… and it’s a total mess!

Jake. Sullivan. That scummy, sunken-eyed weasel running the show?

The thought makes me nauseous. The consequences are potentially catastrophic.

…Biden has no maritime expertise on staff. Furthermore Biden put an army general as secretary defense, and has done a little to nothing to support the US Navy.

tl;dr there is an extreme lack of maritme and naval expertise within this administration.

The result is that the cornerstone of Naval strength – which is not our carrier groups, it is the strength of our allied coalitions – has fallen apart over the course of just a couple of days.

…And now the most important waterway of global maritime commerce is blocked to all but French owned ships (they will open it up to EU ships shortly), US flagged ships with 🇺🇸 sailors aboard sit without protection in the Red Sea, and thousands of ships are going around the Cape of Good Hope emitting untold amount of carbon which the Biden administration claims is a priority.

This is an EPIC failure and a completely avoidable one. The White House has no shipping or naval expertise and should not have taken charge of this operation.

This operation should have been handed off to @SECNAV with close assistance by @SecretaryPete.

I have very little faith in secretary Pete’s Maritime knowledge, but the secretary of the Navy – Carlos del Toro – has done an excellent job in the last few months . He is the one who needs to run point here without interference from @SecDef and @POTUS

And why isn’t the administration saying anything?

Operation Prosperity Guardian is falling apart as France reportedly left the US lead coalition and 6 US flagged ships are stuck undefended in the Red Sea. Hundreds more ships are rerouting around Africa.

What is the official statement on OPG from this administration 👇 🤦‍♂️👇 https://t.co/3IfT7K72uO

— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) December 22, 2023

Why are US flagged ships at risk and what’s the status of Operation Prosperity Guardian? If you have the time, the video is super informative. And as Sal Mercogliano notes in it, the US naval squadron in that area has been stood up since early 2022 and Houthis have been lighting off rockets since 2015, so why was there no “plan in the can” for this contingency?

France Undertakes Convoys Separate from Operation Prosperity Guardian

1️⃣ @cmacgm ships sail the Bab el-Mandeb
2️⃣US-Flag ships reverse course or divert
3️⃣Other US ships have been holding their positions for a week
4️⃣Status of Op Prosperity Guardian?https://t.co/QWT72LAzM1

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) December 22, 2023

Per my continued questioning why every launch site hasn’t been a smoking hole ten minutes later, especially with the firepower available now, it does my non-strategic heart good to see others agreeing with me.

This is embarrassing. There is no reason a weak power like Iran and a rag tag bunch of terrorists should be holding the global economy hostage. Hit them hard and they’ll stop. If they don’t, hit them harder. We have escalation dominance. https://t.co/RMptCBlWab

— Matthew Kroenig (@MatthewKroenig) December 21, 2023

We don’t need to be chasing drones across the sky or intercepting individual rockets in it. Lay waste to the launch sites, hello.

…Then there’s the merchant-to-military interface, so that ships can pass through with the minimum of delay whilst still being protected. Sal Mercogliano does a good job on YouTube describing the complexities of this – there are many. So it will take a while to set this task up and then settle down – it always does. In the meantime you will continue to see some ships taking the option to reroute round the Cape of Good Hope or pause their passage whilst things become clearer.

Not enough warships, the sheer amount of traffic to protect and the complexity of the merchant-military interface are three reasons why I don’t think Prosperity Guardian will work on its own. It is entirely defensive in nature and thus ignores the other tried and tested way of ensuring the safety of ships at sea – destroying the enemy’s ability to threaten them.

That this hasn’t happened already shows just how complex the diplomatic situation across the region is right now. It is also partly because of the difficulties in striking the Houthis a) successfully and b) without escalating the conflict. This would not be the easy hit that many imagine.

Striking back requires precision. The Houthis have learned a great deal from their Iranian masters about mobility – there are no large warehouses or HQs marked “strike here”. So counter-strikes against missile and drone launchers or radar stations will need to be fast, or the target will have gone. This is possible but requires rapid intelligence-to-targeting processes: enter Ike, stage right.

God forbid we hit a goatherder’s hut, but somebody’d better hit something and do it fast.

This weak-kneed piecemeal individual fobbing off of ever more aggressive Houthi attacks is going to get someone killed eventually. It’s also costing us an arm, leg, and three quarts of blood in money and munitions we can’t afford at the moment, particularly when there are alternatives.

Pentagon ‘alarmed’ over price tag of countering cheap Yemeni drones

Concerns about the high cost of countering the threat posed by the Yemeni armed forces in the Red Sea are growing in the Pentagon, according to US defense officials who spoke with POLITICO.

Sanaa has reportedly fired at least 100 drones toward Israeli-linked commercial vessels for the past month in support of the Palestinian people. US estimates place the cost of the domestic-made drones at $2,000 each.

In comparison, each munition used by US warships in the Red Sea cost between $1 million and $4.3 million. The US navy has reportedly shot down at least 38 of the drones fired by Yemen.

“[The high cost] quickly becomes a problem because the most benefit, even if we do shoot down their incoming missiles and drones, is in their favor,” Mick Mulroy, a former US defense official and CIA officer, told POLITICO. “We, the US, need to start looking at systems that can defeat these that are more in line with the costs they are expending to attack us.”

Complicating matters further for Washington, their warships cannot reload their munitions at sea.

WHAT IN THE SAM HELL ARE WE DOING?!

In the meantime, the appalling spectacle of US impotence and the disruption to US and European shipping has meant smooth sailing for the wrong people in the world. The Houthis have become really adept at picking and choosing targets accurately, and they certainly have some new friends with benefits.

The number of non-western tankers carrying oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) in the Red Sea has surged since the Yemeni armed forces began targeting Israeli-linked vessels, according to MarineTraffic data reviewed by Middle East Eye (MEE).

At least 12 vessels carrying LNG and 182 carrying oil were transiting the vital seaway on 19 December, a higher average than before the Yemeni attacks started.

“[Ansarallah] have been tremendously precise in not hitting non-western oil tankers,” Viktor Katona, an analyst at commodities data firm Kpler, told MEE. “There are a lot of Saudi, Iraqi, and Russian tankers in the Red Sea, and [Ansarallah] haven’t hit a single one.”

…Although Sanaa has refrained from endangering Russian, Iraqi, Saudi, Emirati, and Qatari shipments, their threats against Israeli-linked ships have forced some of the world’s largest shipping firms to stop operating in the vital seaway.

“A number of global shipping companies are diverting around Africa or completely pausing operations within this region. If the [US-led] coalition efforts are not effective, we expect more shipping companies to divert around the Cape,” Corey Ranslem, chief executive of British maritime risk advisory and security company Dryad Global, told Reuters this week.

“Will they do anything except swat the missiles out of the sky? If that’s all, then will it give the assurances that are needed for shipping companies? We don’t know yet,” another shipping industry source told the British news outlet.

OMG that’s mortifying.

And it’s not like the Houthis aren’t getting help being so accurate, with real-time assistance coming from other, malevolent quarters.

Iran’s paramilitary forces are providing real-time intelligence to Yemen’s Houthis that the rebels are using to direct drones and missiles to target ships passing through the Red Sea, Western and regional security officials said.

Tracking information gathered by a surveillance vessel controlled by Iran’s paramilitary forces in the Red Sea is passed to the Houthis, who have used it to attack commercial vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait in recent days, according to the officials.

…Many vessels sailing in the strait have been switching off their radios to avoid being tracked online, but an Iranian vessel stationed in the Red Sea is enabling the Houthi drones and missiles to accurately target the ships, the officials said.

…The direct involvement by Iranian actors in the attacks raises the stakes for Israel and the U.S., which are eager to contain Tehran’s role in the region, and risks creating a new front in the conflict between Israel and its foes in the region, just as the U.S. is trying to stop it from escalating.

But there the US sits. Or, rather, bobs around as the Iranians direct Houthis to hit here or there, and who.

America, even with all that heft right there on site, is seen as so waffling and mawkishly weak, that even Somali pirates are starting to stir again, and their activity has been crushed for years! But what’s for them to lose? After all, you’ve got all these fat prizes now sailing down their coast thanks to being thoughtfully rerouted by Houthi rockets not to mention a distracted and apparently defanged US Navy who’s looking north.

No time like the present to shove off the beach and hoist a Jolly Roger.

1st Responders! Indian Navy ‘Chases’ Hijacked Ship In The Arabian Sea As Somali Pirates Strike After 6 Years

…According to the ship-tracking data, a local source claimed that six pirates took control of the ship, which was rerouted to the coast of eastern Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Somalia.

It has been confirmed that the tracking system of the merchant vessel has been disabled, and last, it was heading towards Somalia. After initial reports that the hijacked ship was being taken toward Puntland, reports later indicated that the hijackers in Mogadishu were taking the vessel. However, Somali maritime authorities have not verified the claims.

This is the first successful hijacking by Somali pirates since 2017, when a crackdown by international navies stemmed from piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

What a pity. It was only last January that the shipping industry finally pulled its “high risk area” warning from the Indian Ocean. All those years of patrols for nothing.

That seems to be a constant refrain around the end result anything Biden and his unholy henchmen like Sullivan touch – “All that [insert whatever] for nothing.”

We’ll be lucky to get through it.

BEEGE UPDATE: I won’t say who I had this conversation with, but it might shed a little light on what could be regional strategic thinking (God willing) by the White House.

There is the fact that Djibouti is vulnerable if the Houthis and other Iranian proxies start lobbing bigger and badder weapons in that direction because of an American strike in Yemen. There’s plenty of proof the Iranians have been providing more diverse and advanced weaponry to the Houthis every year.

Djibouti is our only ground base in the Horn of Africa. Yes, there’s a large Chinese naval installation about 5 miles up the road, but even if that was hit, there’s doubts the Chinese would retaliate in any great measure. They’re too busy running pipelines into Iran to screw that up.

But for the US, Djibouti represents a refueling and repair stop for aircraft, and is a deep water port.

…Located at Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti, CJTF-HOA is the only enduring U.S. military installation in Africa. We are located at one of the world’s busiest shipping routes on the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which serves as the gateway from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. CJTF-HOA is comprised of multiple U.S. armed services branches, coupled with foreign armed service personnel from various allied and partner nations.

We work as AFRICOM Forward and conduct a multitude of operations to include emergency response to threats against American citizens, facilities and interests; security cooperation in support of our Djiboutian and African partners; combatting extremism in support of regional stability and defense of the homeland.

If there ever needs to be a large scale evacuation out of Africa, it would be staged out of Djibouti. The distances are enormous merely getting to the continent, less mind having to fly into Chad, Niger or any interior country and return with full loads as you pull people and assets out. We’d also lose our operational eyes in Somalia and the Sahel, and there would be delighted al-Qaeda affiliated groups across the Magreb, and Islamic State actors in the Sahel.

So…there’s a bit of different perspective on a reason behind the seeming reticence to act decisively. Or at least an immediate. targeted punitive strike.

A balancing act.

You also have to believe this administration is that savvy.

YMMV.