The news has been sad for POTATUS lately.

LIFE has been sad for POTATUS lately. He trips, he stumbles, he mumbles, economically bumbles – clomping his way determinedly on and off the stage of life in a moribund version of Nowhere Man without the poignant appeal of Boob.

He’s also never on the receiving end of the love he, his handlers or media like CNBC seems to think he deserves for efforts he’s made on one problem or another that run the gamut from lackluster to disastrous.

“Why don’t you don’t get him,” they’ll moan. “Why is there this disconnect between these accomplishments and how Americans perceive the results?” With the implied WHY ARE YOU PEOPLE SO DENSE AND CHURLISH?

Another example of the type raised its head today, with analysts digesting two recent consumer surveys which seemed to suggest sentiments might be leaning favorably towards Biden.

Two new surveys released in recent days suggest consumers may be starting to feel more optimistic about inflation.

This could be welcome news for President Joe Biden, whose 2024 reelection campaign is battling a stubborn economic gloom tied directly to high consumer prices.

The New York Federal Reserve’s November consumer survey, released Monday, found that consumers expect inflation will be 3.4% over the coming year. That’s a drop of 0.2 percentage points from what consumers predicted in October, and the lowest expected level of inflation the survey has seen since April 2021.

A separate survey from the University of Michigan released Thursday recorded an even sharper shift in consumer confidence.

But it was the chirpy headline that got me.

Inflation fears down, consumer optimism up: Economy may start to help Biden with voters

Really? Are we talking about the same economy as the one I’m living in, CNBC?

I got the feeling they’re doing an intense massage job here on the sparsest of goods.

It’s not all that rosy and I’ll bet people who have to drive a bunch every week are delighted to have energy prices sitting where they are right now. That’s one break we can desperately use. But it’s happened in spite of, not because of anything Biden’s done. A depressed world economy and American oil pumping crude like the beejeebus out of the ground with what they have already drilled – again, in spite of one of the most anti-oil and gas administrations ever – has helped us weather the OPEC cuts and Ukraine War disruptions.

RECORD U.S. oil production challenges Saudi mastery: https://t.co/31h344HA2f pic.twitter.com/mRVVk5eeKb

— John Kemp (@JKempEnergy) December 4, 2023

But it does pose its own problems with the voting block Biden needs.

One major element of the inflation that has turned many voters against the Biden administration is the rise in gasoline and energy prices. With the Presidential election fewer than eleven months away, American oil fields “are gushing again,” as the New York Times reports, with “energy companies cranking out a record 13.2 million barrels a day, more than Russia or Saudia Arabia,” with the flow expected to increase still more in 2024 , thus lowering the price drivers pay at the pump – as well as the cost of heating oil (along with gas). (Even with the surge in production, gasoline prices remain 48% higher than when Biden entered office, when they stood at $2.39.) While Biden blamed Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for causing the subsequent rise in prices, and recently boasted that they have returned to the level they were at just prior to the invasion, the fact remains that by December of the same year, they had risen to over $3 per gallon – months before the Ukraine invasion. (In June, 2022, early in the invasion, they peaked at an average of $5.06 per gallon, the highest on record, after which they started to drop below $4.00.)

…To top things off, the administration announced a crackdown on methane emissions that according to the Independent Petroleum Producers of America, which represents smaller oil companies, forecast will lead to the shutdown of 300,00 of America’s low-production wells, which will be unable to make the new requirements profitably. But the Greens are never satisfied and were denouncing the administration for authorizing a $3.4 million auction of oil and gas drilling rights in Wyoming just before the Dubai summit.

So Biden is torn, having “hectored oil companies to increase production” (and Saudi ruler Mohammad bin Salman, whom he had previously treated as a pariah) so as to drive consumer prices down, according to the Times, with John Kirby, spokesman for the Nation Security Council, explaining that the administration is committed to keeping energy prices down. And wind, sun, and electric cars aren’t going to do the trick in the foreseeable future, if ever….

The other side of the coin is that falling energy prices were the only thing holding core inflation down – housing is through the roof as do the prices that remain on grocery store shelves, contrary to CNBC’s wishcasting. That “gloom tied directly to high consumer prices” is still here – there’s merely the lacquer of seasonal cheer schmeared on it. None of those high prices have gone anywhere, and certainly not down. That’s why lower gas prices are such a treat – because there aren’t many upbeat everyday bargains out there at the moment.

Got those stagflation blues…Correct that without energy dropping like a stone, we'd be looking at 4…right basically, where "core" is at. Yikes.

— H2 Healthcare (@H2HealthLLC) December 12, 2023

We’re all well aware what the real CPI is. I’m not even sure who the inflation survey talks to. No one I know sounds remotely like this.

…Year-ahead inflation expectation fell by around 30% in a single month, a remarkable turn. Consumers in November predicted a year-ahead inflation rate of 4.5%. In December, the same survey found consumers expected 3.1% a year from now.

I certainly couldn’t tell someone “Gosh, I believe this month feels like 4.2% to me. Last month was so much better at 3.9% and I’m looking forward to 3.4% inflation month after next, but thank you for asking.” I mean, I’m not an economist – I only play one here at HotAir – but who the heck does that in real life?

Last one on CPI.
This chart is core CPI (what the fed watches)
I added the red line at the made up fed inflation target.
You see little evidence rate hikes are having much affect on inflation. (because they aren't)
They are doing a nice job of killing small business though. pic.twitter.com/pJA9uvZ6pM

— Frog Capital (@FrogNews) December 12, 2023

As you get past the happy dreams of the headlines and into the article, the contradictions start to become a bit more pronounced, and you realize, “Ah. They didn’t want me reading this far.”

…While Biden’s emphasis on manufacturing, infrastructure and government subsidies has produced a post-pandemic economic boom, the White House has struggled to convince voters that Biden deserves credit for it.

In poll after poll, consumers say they see scant evidence of Biden’s achievements, only the high price tags for essentials like rent and food.

…The New York Fed survey found that consumers feel more optimistic about unemployment in the short-term, but overall, fears of job loss increased.

And you’ll never guess what – #Bidenomics is not mentioned once.

Yeah.

This really was a wistful Make-A-Wish sort of effort.

If you sprinkle enough fairy dust over the coal, it will all sparkle.

How nice to have the elves in your corner.