Russia may be getting its blini smeared all over the Ukrainian countryside, which is what most of the world – and the western world’s finances – are focused on at the moment. Outside of that theater of military operations, Putin is focused on quietly expanding the sphere of Russian influence in toto.

According to a new study, he’s doing a pretty effective job of it, sanctions, pariah status, and war expenditures notwithstanding. Oddly enough, the continuing rally of Western countries to the Ukraiain cause is also helping fuel Russia’s popularity.

Russia’s sphere of influence is growing as propaganda and diplomatic efforts gather momentum and Western powers fail to counter the Kremlin’s narratives, analysts suggest.

A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit earlier this month indicated that net support for Russia had grown in the year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow ramps up its diplomatic charm offensive of previously neutral or geopolitically unaligned countries.

Assessing countries’ enforcement of sanctions, U.N. voting patterns, domestic political trends and official statements alongside economic, political, military and historical ties, the EIU observed a significant uptick in the number of countries now leaning toward Russia — from 29 last year to 35 today.

“China remains the most significant country in this category, but other developing countries (notably South Africa, Mali and Burkina Faso) have also moved into this grouping, which accounts for 33% of the world’s population,” the EIU report said, adding that these trends highlight Russia’s growing influence in Africa.

In January, South Africa raised some serious diplomatic eyebrows when it conducted joint military drills with both China and Russia, which were held on what seemed to be a pretty in-your-face date.

South Africa’s military announced on Thursday that it plans to hold joint training exercises off its coast next month with Russia and China, a move criticized by the United States, which has been trying to rally other countries to isolate Russia over the war in Ukraine.

The exercises will coincide with the one-year anniversary of the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24. South Africa was among three dozen countries that abstained last year in a vote in the United Nations to condemn Russia for its claim to have annexed several regions of Ukraine.

South Africa has conducted military exercises with Russia and China before, as well as with the United States and NATO countries. The South African National Defense Force said that the upcoming drills, to be held from Feb. 17 to 27 near the coastal towns of Durban and Richards Bay, are a “means to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, Russia and China.”

The U.S. made disapproving noises but there was little else they could do. Ostensibly to show Pretoria’s “independence” as a country unto itself, it was also a pretty defiant slap-back at the Biden administration, as well as a show of force for the so-called BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) coalition.

…The naval drill is a show of diplomatic independence for South Africa, analysts said. South Africa is part of an alliance with Brazil, Russia, India and China — known by the acronym BRICS — and this naval exercise reasserts South Africa’s position that it will not allow the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to dictate its diplomatic relations.

“It is seen as a war that is happening in Europe, and as far as South Africa is concerned, it’s not part of this war,” said Denys Reva, a maritime researcher with the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa.

The So African government also signaled that ratcheting up western military aid to the Ukrainians had played a part.

…While South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor indicated that the “massive transfer of arms” from the West to Ukraine had changed Pretoria’s outlook and lauded the country’s “growing economic bilateral relationship” with Moscow.

Russia has had mercenaries in Africa for quite some time, but lately, the Wagner group, famous for their brutality and ruthless efficiency (also horrific losses) in Ukraine has been causing tremendous concern. They’re on the continent, actively undermining weak governments, extorting mineral rights, officials, or outright plotting assassinations of inconvenient folks in their way.

…But it’s Wagner’s activities in Africa, especially the geopolitically important Sahel region, that require closer attention. Formed in 2014 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longtime loyalist of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, Wagner was created to support Russia’s initial foray into Ukraine nine years ago. Since then, it has evolved into a shadowy network of mercenaries deployed throughout the globe. This includes a growing footprint in Africa, where Wagner has deployed forces to Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Mozambique and elsewhere.

Combining hard and soft power, Wagner’s forces are destabilizing poorly governed regions, like the Sahel, through wanton human rights abuses, rapacious resource extraction and covert disinformation efforts that meddle in the internal politics of the countries where they operate. In Sudan, Wagner operatives advised the strongman Omar al-Bashir, who has been charged by the International Criminal Court with multiple counts of genocide, on how to operate a social media campaign that would discredit civilian protesters. In a memo to Mr. Bashir, Wagner advisers advocated publicly executing protesters to send a message to others. Phony election monitors and Wagner-engineered social media campaigns have manipulated local populations and interfered in elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe.

Wagner fighters may soon be on their way to Burkina Faso. In mid-December, Ghana’s president, Nana Akufo-Addo, alleged that the government in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso’s capital, had offered Wagner a lucrative mining contract in exchange for its services. The security-for-resources arrangement mimics Wagner’s blueprint in other parts of Africa, where it is said to have cut deals with authoritarian governments to gain mining concessions and access to valuable resources. Increasingly, these regimes appear to prefer the “no strings attached” arrangement with Moscow over security agreements with Western powers. As he has demonstrated in Syria and Libya, Mr. Putin has no qualms about propping up murderous tyrants and warlords, including Bashar al-Assad and Khalifa Haftar.

Ghana is particularly worrisome, as it is – or was – a hard core U.S. ally. It’s currently beset by an influx of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) fighters from neighboring Burkino Faso.

…The clash between Bawku’s main ethnic groups is a hyper-local conflict with potentially global implications. Both Ghanaian and U.S. officials fear that al Qaeda militants, who have attacked villages in Burkina Faso just a few miles away, could take advantage of the tensions to establish a beachhead in Ghana, a regional powerhouse and American ally known for its relative stability and prosperity.

…Militant Islamists, most of them al Qaeda adherents, carried out 1,470 attacks last year in Burkina Faso, to Ghana’s north, a 26% jump from 2021. The violence left 3,600 people dead, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a U.S.-based nonprofit violence-monitoring organization, as analyzed by the Pentagon’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

And Wagner is on their way to Burkina Faso. See how this works? In chaos there is profit, while one more African state falls under Russian influence if not outright control.

Of course, the Biden administration is on its toes, realizing the danger inherent in the situation, and doing everything they can to sustain U.S. influence on the continent. They’ve sent big, honkin’ checks with Blinken, Yellen, Harris, and…OMG. Doug.

US second gentleman Doug Emhoff was presented with traditional Kente cloth while traveling on an African tour with Vice President Kamala Harris pic.twitter.com/RKIzcWIyVV

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 28, 2023

That’ll show ’em we mean business.

In the meantime, Russian propagandists are touting Russian beneficence…

Russia has written off debts to African countries in the amount exceeding $20 billion.

Russia and China write off debt and help with economic development, while certain Western countries simply like to lecture Africa and give ultimatums. pic.twitter.com/3a9kKAj4pP

— Nina 🐙 Byzantina (@NinaByzantina) March 20, 2023

…as well as helping the Chinese tank the Petro dollar…

EMPIRE OF THE YUAN

Putin told Xi Jinping's delegation in Moscow: "We are in favour of using the Chinese Yuan in settlements between Russia and countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America."

This marks the beginning of the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. pic.twitter.com/kmOjOUwrEE

— Mark Alan Pearce (@PearceAlan1962) March 23, 2023

…and most of the countries on the continent had representatives spend a couple of days last week in Moscow for the second “Russia-Africa Summit.” According to this GLOWING, Moscow-friendly tongue bath, I’d say they had a good time being feted and told how grown up they are now, Russia having no ulterior motive other than the altruistic pursuit of a better world.

The International Parliamentary conference ‘Russia-Africa’ held on 19-20 March has, at least, focused on complexities and contradictions of the emerging new global order, the role of Russia-African alliance against growing Western imperialism, and set the limits of Africa’s expectations from Russia. The conference was to build further on previous comprehensive political dialogues between parliaments of Africa and Russia.

President Vladimir Putin said at the plenary session of the international parliamentary conference ‘Russia-Africa in a Multipolar World’ on March 20, reminded that the first Russian-African summit, held in October 2019 in Sochi, was very productive and made it possible to noticeably revive our ties with African states, intensify business interaction, exchanges in the cultural and humanitarian spheres. That the partnership between Russia and African countries has gained additional momentum and is already reaching a qualitatively new level.

He emphatically pointed out that the states of Africa are constantly increasing their weight and role in world affairs, and are asserting themselves more and more confidently in politics and the economy. We are convinced that Africa will become one of the leaders in the emerging new multipolar world order – there are all objective prerequisites for this. And there is about 1.5 billion people live in Africa, a huge resource base is concentrated – almost a third of the world’s mineral reserves.

The BRICS coalition is nothing to sneeze at, either, in economic potential, resource-wise or sheer population. Russia’s careful cultivation of every smaller piece in the African puzzle is strategic.

BRICS countries have officially overtaken G7 in share of world PPP GDP; Mexico officialy applies to join BRICS alliance.

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) now contribute 31.5% of global GDP, with further projected growth.

This is what’s most important! pic.twitter.com/TNAmwMA9uB

— Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives (@dom_lucre) March 29, 2023

If you think they weren’t listening to Putin in Moscow and his Chinese buddy, think again.

JUST IN: Days after a Russia-Africa conference in Moscow, President Ruto of 🇰🇪 Kenya issues a warning:

“People holding dollars might go into losses… because this market is going to be different in a couple of weeks” 👀😱 pic.twitter.com/GhH9ucU0b0

— Bitcoin News ⚡ (@BitcoinNewsCom) March 26, 2023

THIS MARKET IS GOING TO BE DIFFERENT

The “difference” lately anywhere in anything has been nothing good.