With all signs pointing to a gusty sweep for Republicans at the top of the ticket in Florida — that’s not maybe-soon-to-be Hurricane Nicole whipping up the storm surge; it’s the GOP electorate — the tale of the red wave will be narrated by supporting actors.
Which is why I’m particularly interested in the open-seat contest across Tampa Bay in Congressional District 13. Headed into Election Day, observers have for weeks described the battle in horserace terms: tight, hotly contested, down-to-the-wire, photo-finish.
It’s a juicy scenario for lots of reasons, not least because it’s become a war-by-proxy. Familiar names have linked themselves to each candidate.
Democrat Eric Lynn, most often mentioned as a national security advisor in the Obama administration, recently earned his old boss’ late-breaking endorsement. So has the usual cast of nationally significant suspects, including President Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
There’s also this: Early on, Lynn received a blessing from Charlie Crist, which makes the stakes ever so much more delicious. Crist had held the District 13 seat for two terms, until he resigned in August to commit full-time to his gubernatorial campaign.
(Stepping down, incidentally, caused much wailing among Democrats, because it cut into Pelosi’s already thin House majority. But it was perfectly on-brand for Crist, who has tirelessly demonstrated himself far more interested in campaigning than actually serving.)
Coming up hard from the right is Anna Paulina Luna, who moved to the Tampa Bay Area from Portland, Ore., in 2019 when her husband, and Air Force combat controller, was transferred to MacDill Air Force Base.
An Air Force veteran herself, Luna was recruited by Charlie Kirk to run Hispanic engagement for Turning Point U.S.A. in 2019. She’s also worked with Prager U., the conservative education initiative.
This is her second time pursuing the St. Petersburg-based congressional seat. In 2020, challenging Crist’s rare re-election effort, Luna ran slightly behind Donald Trump, losing by six points; Trump lost the district by four.
I’m watching not merely because Luna has staked out mega MAGA positions in both campaigns, and prevailed in this year’s primary where five GOP rivals each attempted to out-Trump the others. Nor because Luna has, from time to time, earned a living as a model.
And it’s not because Luna has the longstanding support of Kirk, Panhandle Rep. Matt Gaetz, or even Trump himself.
I’m watching because despite the jiggering of lines to create a more favorable climate for a Republican candidate, Luna — with nothing more than boundless energy and a no-quarter attitude toward Democrats — is no lock. The district may lean GOP, but it’s teeming with old-school Republicans who might be described as lukewarm squishes by the party’s boiling core. Indeed, several prominent local Republicans, including the wife of the district’s late longtime representative, have endorsed Lynn.
For all of that, Luna, at 31, is precisely the sort of dazzling, primary-colors upstart who, if she wins — and we should know early; Pinellas knows how to count votes — will signal a GOP tsunami in the Sunshine State.
Reports from voting sites earlier Tuesday suggested Lynn will concede early. Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch delivered unpleasant news for Democrats: “[I]n Pinellas County, the state’s biggest swing county, Republicans are delivering a walloping.”
Florida’s District 13 race strikes me as a bellwether, as does Luna’s candidacy. One other sweetener for state Republicans to consider: If Luna prevails, and Gov. Ron DeSantis cruises as predicted, the flip will be a two-fer:
They’ll turn the district red — Huzzah! — and simultaneously eliminate Charlie Crist’s cringe-worthy legacy of hubris and ambition for the sake of it.
