Nate Silver

Nate Silver: Republicans now favored to win the Senate
John Sexton 4:00 PM on November 02, 2022
Nate Silver: Republicans now favored to win the Senate
Nate Silver: Senate control looks like an even bet to me
John Sexton 7:20 PM on October 21, 2022
Nate Silver: Senate control looks like an even bet to me
Vox: Will the polls be wrong again this year?
John Sexton 1:24 PM on September 23, 2022
Vox: Will the polls be wrong again this year?
Two new forecasts: Democrats favored to hold the Senate?
Allahpundit 8:01 PM on July 27, 2022
Two new forecasts: Democrats favored to hold the Senate?
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Large UK study: Actually, the vaccinated don't have viral loads as high as the unvaccinated when they're infected
Allahpundit 2:01 PM on August 04, 2021
Large UK study: Actually, the vaccinated don't have viral loads as high as the unvaccinated when they're infected
Here it is: The actual data on which the CDC's new mask guidance is based
Allahpundit 4:41 PM on July 30, 2021
Here it is: The actual data on which the CDC's new mask guidance is based
Why does the U.S. have fewer COVID cases now than the CDC's model projected last month?
Allahpundit 7:03 PM on June 07, 2021
Why does the U.S. have fewer COVID cases now than the CDC's model projected last month?
Biden COVID transition advisor: Look, just trust the experts about whether pausing J&J was the right decision
Allahpundit 11:32 AM on April 14, 2021
Biden COVID transition advisor: Look, just trust the experts about whether pausing J&J was the right decision
The obligatory "how 'bout that Iowa poll" post, plus a bunch of other polls
Allahpundit 2:01 PM on November 01, 2020
The obligatory "how 'bout that Iowa poll" post, plus a bunch of other polls
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Are late-arriving mail-in ballots more likely to come from ... Republicans?
Allahpundit 7:21 PM on October 30, 2020
Are late-arriving mail-in ballots more likely to come from ... Republicans?
Frank Luntz: If the polls are wrong again this time, my profession is finished
Allahpundit 1:31 PM on October 23, 2020
Frank Luntz: If the polls are wrong again this time, my profession is finished
Report: Trump campaign thinks chances of winning North Carolina have "all but evaporated" Premium
Allahpundit 3:31 PM on October 19, 2020
Report: Trump campaign thinks chances of winning North Carolina have "all but evaporated"
FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016
Allahpundit 11:31 AM on August 12, 2020
FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016
Nate Silver: Yes, Trump can still win this race
Allahpundit 3:31 PM on July 26, 2020
Nate Silver: Yes, Trump can still win this race
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Uh oh: Bloomberg starting to collapse in polling?
Allahpundit 11:21 AM on February 26, 2020
Uh oh: Bloomberg starting to collapse in polling?
Bernie now projected to have an all but insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday
Allahpundit 1:31 PM on February 19, 2020
Bernie now projected to have an all but insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday
Trump: The fact that only 25% want me impeached is pretty good given the scope of this witch hunt; Update: 51% want removal, says ... Fox News
Allahpundit 7:31 PM on October 09, 2019
Trump: The fact that only 25% want me impeached is pretty good given the scope of this witch hunt; Update: 51% want removal, says ... Fox News
Trump: 2020 polls are fake news, you know
Ed Morrissey 9:21 PM on June 12, 2019
Trump: 2020 polls are fake news, you know
Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority
Allahpundit 10:01 PM on October 17, 2018
Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority
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NY Times: Maybe the Comey letter didn't determine the outcome of the election
John Sexton 9:21 PM on May 08, 2017
NY Times: Maybe the Comey letter didn't determine the outcome of the election
Pollster probe: Naah, Comey didn't cost Hillary the election
Ed Morrissey 12:41 PM on May 05, 2017
Pollster probe: Naah, Comey didn't cost Hillary the election
Trump staffer on campaign's private polling: “Nate Silver’s results have been similar to ours”
Allahpundit 11:31 AM on October 27, 2016
Trump staffer on campaign's private polling: “Nate Silver’s results have been similar to ours”
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: Hillary still has a 100% chance of winning this election
Allahpundit 11:21 AM on September 26, 2016
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe: Hillary still has a 100% chance of winning this election
Nate Silver ponders how he got Trump so wrong
Jazz Shaw 4:01 PM on May 18, 2016
Nate Silver ponders how he got Trump so wrong
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Shocker: Dems suddenly concerned with slow, unresponsive coronation candidate
Ed Morrissey 2:01 PM on September 17, 2015
Shocker: Dems suddenly concerned with slow, unresponsive coronation candidate
Nate Silver: No, the Democrats don’t have a lock on an Electoral College majority
Noah Rothman 8:41 PM on May 12, 2015
Nate Silver: No, the Democrats don’t have a lock on an Electoral College majority
Nate Silver, David Axelrod agree: Yes, there is a crisis in polling
Ed Morrissey 12:41 PM on May 08, 2015
Nate Silver, David Axelrod agree: Yes, there is a crisis in polling
Nate Silver: Chris Christie is unlikely to be the GOP’s 2016 nominee
Noah Rothman 3:21 PM on January 07, 2015
Nate Silver: Chris Christie is unlikely to be the GOP’s 2016 nominee
Nate Silver: Are Democrats disadvantaged by (gasp) skewed polls?
Noah Rothman 10:41 AM on October 15, 2014
Nate Silver: Are Democrats disadvantaged by (gasp) skewed polls?
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Election forecasters bearish on GOP? Senate models looking more Democratic by the day
Noah Rothman 7:01 PM on September 16, 2014
Election forecasters bearish on GOP? Senate models looking more Democratic by the day
Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year
Noah Rothman 1:21 PM on August 04, 2014
Nate Silver warns the political class that it could still be a GOP wave year
Uh oh: 60% of Intel employees who donated in Prop 8 debate supported banning gay marriage
Allahpundit 6:01 PM on April 04, 2014
Uh oh: 60% of Intel employees who donated in Prop 8 debate supported banning gay marriage
Damage control: Dem leaders scramble after Nate Silver picks GOP to retake the Senate
Allahpundit 4:01 PM on March 24, 2014
Damage control: Dem leaders scramble after Nate Silver picks GOP to retake the Senate
FiveThirtyEight: GOP now has a better than 50% chance of retaking Senate
Jazz Shaw 5:01 PM on March 23, 2014
FiveThirtyEight: GOP now has a better than 50% chance of retaking Senate
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Open thread: Sunday morning talking heads
Ed Morrissey 8:01 AM on March 23, 2014
Open thread: Sunday morning talking heads
What can we really learn from the 2012 polls?
Karl 6:51 PM on November 12, 2012
What can we really learn from the 2012 polls?
Polling science, art and witchcraft Pt. 2
Jazz Shaw 10:01 AM on November 10, 2012
Polling science, art and witchcraft Pt. 2
RCP poll averages predicted 49 of 50 states
Allahpundit 3:22 PM on November 07, 2012
RCP poll averages predicted 49 of 50 states
New Pew poll: Obama wins by 10 if Democrats lead in turnout this year by, um, 19 points
Allahpundit 9:57 PM on August 02, 2012
New Pew poll: Obama wins by 10 if Democrats lead in turnout this year by, um, 19 points
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Oh my: Walker 54, Barrett 42 in Wisconsin
Allahpundit 4:41 PM on May 24, 2012
Oh my: Walker 54, Barrett 42 in Wisconsin
The poll to watch right now
Karl 10:15 PM on April 23, 2012
The poll to watch right now