Hot Air Primary Survey: October Results

For the sixth time in a row, Hot Air’s first choice winner for President is Ted Cruz, with 34.9% of the vote. He’s followed by Carly Fiorina (21.6%), Marco Rubio (18.3%), Donald Trump (16%) and — at a surprising distance — Ben Carson (3.1%.) Rubio and Fiorina have basically doubled their take from the last vote, while Carson’s vote was cut in half. Trump lost a few points; Cruz remained steady. Over 2800 votes were cast.



I think it’s notable that the survey was dominated by six candidates: Cruz, Fiorina, Rubio, Trump, Carson and Bobby Jindal. I’ve color coded the candidates so it’s easier to see trajectories as voters’ choices cascaded. Rand Paul runs neck and neck with Jindal as a first choice candidate, but his support is relatively shallow. Same with Trump, whose base is strong but whose upside is weak. In contrast, Jindal’s base is weak but his upside is strong.


Where did Scott Walker’s voters go after he exited the race? The lion’s share went to Cruz, Rubio and Fiorina.


What are the most popular first choice/second choice combinations right now? They’re below; I’ve highlighted the ones I found most interesting.


And should the House consider non-House members to be the Speaker of the House? You said yes.


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