Is Common Core support disqualifying for 2016 candidates? Maybe not

Sit down in a room full of conservatives talking about issues that will resonate in 2016, and you’re likely to leave thinking that the Common Core education standards are a bigger issue for Republican primary voters than even immigration reform or the Affordable Care Act. Opposition to those standards is so potent an issue among the politically active that many who observe politics for a living have grown convinced that support for Common Core alone could sink a prospective 2016 Republican’s candidate’s campaign.

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But a new NBC News/Marist survey released over the weekend suggests that Common Core may not resonate outside of conservative circles, or even with potential Republican presidential primary voters in early states.

In South Carolina, 47 percent of Republican primary voters said a candidate who backs Common Core could still secure their vote. By contrast, only 41 percent of Palmetto State Republicans would vote for a GOP candidate who believes in the theory of anthropogenic global warming and just 45 percent would support a candidate who backs same-sex marriage.

The story is similar for Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa. In the Granite State, 47 percent would cast a ballot for a candidate who supports Common Core. This issue is more acceptable to New Hampshire Republicans than support for gay marriage, hiking taxes on the rich, or backing a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s illegal immigrants. In the Hawkeye State, a remarkable 57 percent of self-identified Republicans do not regard Common Core as a disqualifying issue for 2016. In fact, it might even be a positive for Republican candidates vying to compete in the Iowa caucuses at this stage of the race. Only backing the commitment of U.S. troops to fight ISIS and expressing support for Obamacare’s repeal are traits viewed more positively by Iowa’s Republican voters.

This poll is going to be seen as good news for Jeb Bush, who remains the 2016 Republican presidential primary’s most outspoken proponent of these national education standards. He could formerly claim New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as an ally on this matter, but the Garden State governor recently backed away from his support for Common Core.

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“I have grave concerns about the way this has been done and especially the way the Obama administration has tried to implement it through tying it to federal funding,” Christie told an audience in Iowa last week. “That changes the entire nature of it from what was initially supposed to be a voluntary type of system that states could decide on their own.”

So, why is Christie backing off his support for Common Core, in Iowa no less, if it is not a political liability? Well, because support for these national education standards probably is a detriment to his political career, no matter what this particular poll says.

What this survey is likely showing us about this issue is that it is a relatively peripheral matter at this stage of the presidential race. This NBC News/Marist survey also revealed that Mike Huckabee leads among voters in Iowa and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has surged ahead of the pack of Republican presidential aspirants in South Carolina. Like most surveys at this early date, this poll is a test of name recognition. Activist conservatives’ frustration with Common Core provides us with a window into a future when the rest of the GOP electorate has been exposed to anti-standards messaging and has more familiarity with the issue. There is a reason why opposition to Common Core unites polar ideological opposites like Bobby Jindal and Louie C.K.

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What this poll does show is not that support for Common Core is a positive for prospective 2016 candidates, but that opponents of those educational standards have a lot of work to do. Those who are vehemently opposed to this curriculum have not managed to get their message out, even to their fellow Republicans let along the broader electorate. If Common Core is going to be a major issue in 2016, conservative activists will have to begin reaching out to others who may not already share their concerns.

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