“To know Elizabeth Warren is to want her to run for president, according to a YouGov survey of likely Democratic Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters,” a memo from MoveOn.org began.
And the results this organization hyped did not disappoint. The poll, conducted from January 30 to February 5 of 400 self-described Democrats in Iowa and another 400 in New Hampshire, contends that Democrats are hungering for Warren to run for the White House and rob Hillary Clinton of what her allies describe as “her turn.”
The MoveOn.org memo contends that a “stunning” 79 percent of Democratic respondents in both early primary states want to see Warren run for president. An absurdly high 98 percent of Democrats think that a contested presidential primary would benefit the ultimate 2016 nominee. And, most importantly, Clinton is vulnerable.
• After hearing positive information about Elizabeth Warren, 79% said they would like her to run for president in 2016 including 82% of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers and 76% of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters.
• After hearing this information, without any negatives on other candidates, Elizabeth Warren leads all other candidates for the nomination in both states: 31% to 24% over Clinton in Iowa (with other potential candidates further behind) and 30% to 27% in New Hampshire.
And there’s your big problem.
A lot of folks throw around the term “push poll” when they really mean that they do not like the results of a particular survey, but that term has a concrete definition. A push poll is designed to manipulate voters, and one easy way to do that is to present respondents with leading questions – or any questions – before asking voters for their head-to-head ballot preference. If you don’t want to taint the results of a survey’s ballot test, you test messaging or issues after the ballot question. MoveOn.org didn’t do that.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, the Democratic nomination for the presidency is not competitive. Clinton leads in the RCP average of polling by 48.6 percent. Her nearest competitor, according to RCP, is not Warren but Vice President Joe Biden. America’s Crazy Old Uncle Joe narrowly leads Warren in the RCP average as Democrats’ second choice.
So, the “shock poll” is really a dud. And it’s also a waste of money, considering Warren is extremely unlikely to be drafted into a losing race that would put her on the wrong side of her party’s likely presidential nominee. But, who knows? All bets are off if Clinton miraculously decides to forgo a presidential bid. If she did, Warren would unquestionably serve as the savior for a party desperately in need of saving.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member