A poll recently conducted by Bloomberg suggests that Hillary Clinton’s ascension to the presidency is all but inevitable. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.
At least, that’s how the writeup of this survey via Bloomberg’s Lisa Lerer read.
“Greater numbers of Americans view her as a strong leader, who has a better vision for the future, shares their values, and empathizes with their concerns, according to a new Bloomberg Politics Poll,” the post revealed.
Somewhat paradoxically considering how toxic proximity to Washington politics is for many politicians, this poll found that Clinton’s experience as Obama’s Secretary of State, her residency in Washington D.C., and her tenure in government are among her strongest assets.
In head-to-head matchups, Clinton bests all her Republican competition by healthy margins:
While Clinton lacks Obama’s overwhelming empathy advantage, she’s better positioned two years before the election in every other attribute. When respondents were asked which potential candidate did a better job on each of four qualities, she runs seven to 20 points ahead on leadership when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Romney. Though Clinton has yet to provide a detailed account of how she’d guide the nation as president, Americans think she has more of a vision for the future than any in the Republican field. When measured on that attribute, she leads Romney by 6 points, Paul by 10 points, Bush by 15 points, Christie by 17 points, and Cruz by 21 points.
At this stage of the race, 2016 polls are merely tests of name recognition, and this survey is no different. The fact that 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney performs the best out of all possible contenders Bloomberg tested is evidence of this phenomenon. In fact, this is a condition that the legendary GOP pollster Whit Ayres told Bloomberg’s Lerer he expected to see reflected in polling at this early stage of the race.
“She has 100 percent name ID. Among the potential candidates for 2016, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are the only ones who even come close,” Ayers said. “I would have been stunned if any of the Republicans beat Clinton on any measure.”
Regardless of what the polls say with 23 months before voters head to the polls to elect the 45th President of the United States, the currents of history will be running against Democrats in 2016. A thorough analysis via Dan McLaughlin in The Federalist explains in great detail why Ronald Reagan was the only two-term president in the post-war period to be succeeded by member of his own party.
While the prevailing conditions which will define how voters feel about the economy and the state of American national security in 2016 are not yet known, it is a safe bet that there will be residual apprehension in the voters’ minds about both. Those two issues, a political economist will tell you, are crucial factors that will determine whether voters will be predisposed to endorse the outgoing president’s tenure by voting for more of the same.
That said, this poll is a warning for Republicans. Whoever the eventual nominee is, he or she will face a formidable opponent in Clinton.