Minnesota Polling: Too Good To Factcheck. OR Get Cocky About.

...followed by a one-and-done in the playoffs at best, or 50-50 season and a team watching the playoffs from sports bars in Cozumel.   

Short rule — most exuberance is irrational if you're a Vikings fan — a team that last saw a Super Bowl during the Carter administration, in 1977, when they set the record for futility only tied by the hapless Buffao bills. 

And Minnesota Republicans aren't doing much better.  The Minnesota GOP (MNGOP) hasn't won a statewide office — governor/lieutenant governor, U.S. Senate, attorney general, secretary of state or state auditor — if any kind since 2006.  Now, by all rights it shouldn't be that futile — it's as close to a 50-50 state as a state can be, with its US House delegation tied 4-4 and its state legislature as close to tied as it's possible to be (House tied 67-67, Senate held by the Democrats ("DFL") 34-33.   

And yet, cycle after cycle, the statewide races elude the MNGOP.  Which can lead to Minnesota Republicans starting to act like, as Bruce Springsteen put it, "a dog that's been beaten too much" - beaten into submission, hopeless, resigned, even cynical.  Sort of like Democrats on the Great Plains. 

And heading into a mid-term that everyone says is going to be a mid-term blue wave, especially in a state where Donald Trump is not popular?

Republicans, like Vikings fans, and like Charlie Brown seeing Lucy put the football on the ground, are used to crushing disappointment and, much worse, futility.  

But yesterday, a set of polls dropped into Minnesota's races that felt a little like someone ripped open a window into a dungeon, letting in the sunlight for the first time in memory.  

According to a Survey USA/KSTP poll, Minnesota is competitive:

The latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results show the race for governor between Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth is getting closer, and Flanagan-Tafoya are neck and neck. https://t.co/Sfk5IQXoYB

— KSTP (@KSTP) September 17, 2026

In the governor's race, Senator Amy Klobuchar — a woman with 100 percent name recognition, both from her 20 years in the U.S. Senate and being the daughter of a prominent longtime Star Tribune sports columnist — is up 47-40 over current Speaker of the House Lisa Demuth.  

Why, yes — a seven point deficit is good news, under the circumstances:

In the first post-primary poll, Klobuchar led Demuth by 16 points. That margin is down to 7 a month later.

Today’s poll indicates notable movement toward Demuth among both men and independents, although Klobuchar still has a significant edge among moderate voters.

And — provided one trusts the poll, which is always a leap of faith — here's a bit of a glimmer of hope.  Minnesota Republicans have one statistical reality and stretch goal to shoot for;  if the GOP ever cracks 40 percent of the vote in the Metro, the DFL is doomed in statewide elections. 

And according to this poll (with emphasis added by me):

Demuth has taken the lead in southern Minnesota while expanding her edge in the western region. Additionally, Klobuchar’s lead in the Twin Cities, where she’d be most expected to dominate, dropped from 57-31 to 52-38.

And in the Senate race, between sitting Lieutenant Governor and fairly extreme leftist Peggy Flanagan and former sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, the news is — observing all the usual caveats about polling — potentially even better:

Flanagan started the post-primary polls with a 5-point lead on Tafoya. A month later, the race is a dead tie, with 12% still undecided and 4% going toward other candidates.

Flanagan — a lifelong community organizer and former state  representative who had the most liberal voting record in the Minnesota House, albeit at a time when the DFL hadn't been hijacked by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), and who was allegedly involved in passing information to anti-ICE protesters last winter — may be the weakest candidate the DFL has put forward in decades.  Tafoya is fairly called a moderate — she didn't win the MNGOP endorsement — but has name recognition ,and is doing something Minnesota Republicans have despaired of doing for decades; out-fundraising her opponent.  

The other "constitutional officer" races have even more surprises:

Minnesota Republicans haven't won a statewide office in 20 years, but new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results show them now with leads in two races. https://t.co/rYUZvBWVoa

— KSTP (@KSTP) September 16, 2026

The polls show Republicans leading in two of the three other executive branch races:

KSTP/SurveyUSA: Republicans lead two of three down ballot statewide races for attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor. @KSTP pic.twitter.com/tqDsbKzHwG

— Tom Hauser (@thauserkstp) September 16, 2026

2024 gubernatorial candidate Dr. Scott Jensen leads DFLer Zach Filipovich pretty convincingly; name recognition may be the tipping factor in this otherwise fairly obscure race.   And former judge Tad Jude is making a solid run against third-term incumbent Steve Simon, amid nagging allegations of election corruption. 

But most of all? 

Republican candidate Ron Schutz — a candidate with name recognition so low he has to remind people there's no "L" in his name — is polling ahead of two term incumbent Ellison

🚨Schutz Leads Ellison 🚨

New KSTP Survey USA poll shows shows Ron Schutz with a lead over DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison. This race is winnable! Donate and volunteer for Ron Schutz today! https://t.co/LOcYhg40zY pic.twitter.com/k4iVHXFQK2

— Republican Party of Minnesota (@mngop) September 17, 2026

Ellison barely won reelection four years ago, and his proximity to and torpor over the state's fraud scandal combine with the fact that his approval ratings in Minnesota are actually lower than President Trump's are likely boosting Schutz's shot.  

Minnesota Republicans aren't used to this kind of news.   We're like people waking up from comas — the sensation is foreign to us.  

And dangerous.  Hope is the most dangerous drug.  

A very wise man, a veteran of managing GOP legislative races in the ever-bluer suburbs of Minneapolis, described a phenomenon he'd observed among his clients; "at some point in the campaign, they actually start thinking they have a chance", only to be crushed on election night.  

And it's worth pointing out that none of this news has brought any national spending to Minnesota GOP campaigns. 

Yet.  

I've joked — but only half-joked — that the Minnesota DFL's greatest accomplishment is gaslighting Minnesota Republicans into thinking they are inevitable.   And it's working, even with me, even as I write this.  

How about those Vikings, anyway?  They're undefeated — 1-0 this season (as this is written).  

But this has been an extraordinary decade in Minnesota so far, in all the wrong ways.   Let's neither get cocky nor rule anything out.