Cracking The Fordow Nut

But by most accounts, the only card the mullahs in Iran still hold is the nuclear fuel enrichment facility at Fordow.  As long as it remains in operation, the mullahs can retain some kind of hope that they can stay within spitting distance of joining the nuclear club.  Without it, they preside over a nation where they are less popular than Ken Martin.  

But as noted elsewhere, Fordow is a tough nut to crack, militarily speaking. It's built into a mountain, under about 300 feet of rock and concrete.  

So if it comes down to it - and the Netanyahu government doesn't seem to be cottoning to any Obama/Biden-era half measures - what do they do? 

The conventional wisdom is that the only weapon in the world capable of doing the job in one go is the GBU-57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP), a 15 ton metal lawn dart built to fall from 50,000 feet, bore into solid rock and concrete, and essentially create an earthquake:

“If you just explode on the surface, the energy will mostly just deflect,” explains Tom Karako, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It might cause a little bit of surface damage, but it will mostly deflect, even if it’s a big explosion. And so you need to penetrate the rock so as to have the explosive energy reverberate. You need to crack the mountain.” The resulting shock wave can implode tunnels and chambers.

It's what the British used to call an "earthquake bomb", only capable of burrowing into earth, rock or concrete much deeper than previous designs.  

But there are only a few ways to get a 15 ton bomb into the air, much less the target.  You need a big plane.  The Israeli Air Force's combat aircraft are all single and two-seat fighters; capable, but not "30,000 pounds" capable.   

And only two nations build planes that big: Russia, and the US.  

So - why not just use one of those planes?

Incredibly, we're not the first people with that idea.  Israel came to the US looking to buy a used Cold War-era superbomber.  Michaal Oren is a former Israeli ambassador to the US as well as a former Knesset member.  And apparently he went shopping at the used plane lot:

Twice, in 2013, during my tenure as Ambassador in Washington, and later, as a Member of Knesset in 2018, I asked the United States to sell us a strategic bomber. I understood that the U.S. would not be willing to sell us one of their advanced B-1 or B-2 stealth aircraft, but I hoped that they would be willing to part with a Cold War era B-52.

One B-52 - aka "North Dakota's State Bird" - capable of carrying a MOP or two, against the day Israel might have to think about taking ou,  well, exactly what they're talking about needing to take out today? 

The Obama Administration reacted predictably:

From the Obama Administration, my request was met with an emphatic “no.” From the first Trump Administration, the answer was "It’s an interesting idea, we’ll think about it.” In reply, I suggested that instead of selling us a plane, the Americans lease one to us. But the response was once again negative. So, too, was their reaction to my final request that an Israeli Air Force crew be able to train on a B-52 just in case one became available.

Today, with the Fordow facility intact, my attempts to procure the means for Israel to destroy it seem justified. Had we possessed even one strategic bomber Israel would not be in the position of wondering whether the United States will perform the task for us. We would mitigate the claims, now being made by both the left and the right in the United States, that Israel is dragging America into another endless Middle Eastern war.

So, that particular market was, and apparently remains, closed. 

Now, as we've seen throughout their history, especially during "Rising Lion", the Israelis are nothing if not an resourceful and ingenious bunch.  If they can't get a B-52, and the US won't use a B-2?   

Maybe extemporize their own bunker-busting MOP bomber out of the ubiquitous C-130 transport/cargo plane?

The IDF has certainly shown it’s prepared for such operations, but that is still an extremely risky endeavor. So, what if Israel’s C-130s could drop GBU-57 MOPs, or an Israeli weapon very similar to it, on these targets instead of B-2s?

There is certainly a precedent for C-130s dropping absolutely massive bombs out of their cargo holds, both old and new. The BLU-82 Daisy Cutter was dropped by C-130, primarily to clear landing zones, during the Vietnam War. A modernized fuel-air weapon known as the GBU-43 Mother Of All Bombs (MOAB) is in service today, and it was used with devastating results in Afghanistan in 2017. So why not a super-heavy penetrator?

Of course, the C-130 is a transport, not a stealth bomber.   Flying a combat mission to bomb what would normally be a highly defended target would require, not mere air superiority, but actual air supremacy, the complete denial of the skies to the Iranian defenders...

...and oh, lookie there.  

The Israeli Air Force conducting an aerial refueling over enemy territory exercise. Multiple long-range strike aircraft included. The message to Iran is clear 🇮🇱 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WzgwwahkQb

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) August 16, 2024

The other option?  Commandos:

Plan B is an Israeli special forces raid, which would be far more daring and complex than that which Israeli commandos pulled off last September when they destroyed an Iranian missile base constructed just a few hundred feet beneath another mountain in western Syria.

The Israeli military has spent the last five days creating amenable conditions for either contingency. On June 16, it destroyed upward of 70 Iranian air defense platforms and mobile missile launchers.

There are lots of options - all of them risky.