Years and years ago - back when Ed and I were hosting a radio show together - I started coining a series of aphorisms that I called "Berg's Law". They were satirical - but tended to be pretty accurate in real life.
One of them was "Berg's 18th Law", which reads:
Nothing the media writes/says about any emotionally charged event – a mass shooting, a police shooting, anything – should be taken seriously for 48 hours after the original incident. It will largely be rubbish, as media outlets vie to “scoop” each other even on incorrect facts.
I may have coined it in response to the shooting where Gabby Giffords was grievously wounded, and six other died. The left may have strained a muscle trying to pin the shooting on the GOP; when it turned out that the shooter was a deeply dissociative young man, Jared Laughner...
...well, it'd be nice to say "crow was eaten", but most of the worst offenders carried right on.
Which brings us to the assassination over this past weekend of Minnesota state representative and former Speaker of the House Melissa Hortman and her husband, and the near-fatal attack on state senator John Hoffman and his wife. The groundswell of sorrow among politicians in Minnesota was resounding - and bipartisan.
Rep. Niska is the GOP House Majority leader:
— Rep. Harry Niska (@HarryNiska) June 15, 2025
Even Dean Phillips - former DFL congressman and reputedly place-holder on Vance Boelter's "hit list" - pointed it out:
Seeing the beautiful tributes to @melissahortman by Minnesota Republicans makes me proud of my state and grateful for the friendship and decency of people like @kdaudt, @paulgazelka, @JuliaEColeman and others. Uniting > Fighting 🇺🇸
— Dean Phillips (@deanbphillips) June 15, 2025
A certain among of the circumspection called for in Berg's 18th Law is called for.
In the hours after the story first broke, the narrative swerved from:
- Rumors of two legislators shot, with no further information (6AM)
- Trump supporters did it! (7AM)
- It was a Democrat, getting revenge for Hortman voting against taxpayer-paid healthcare for illegal aliens (which she did as part of the budget negotiations with the governor and House GOP; it should be noted that Senator Hoffman did not vote against that measure).
Keeping my own 18th Law in mind, my first reflex was to assume the killer was, like most spree killers, a mentally ill narcissist who wanted to play out his internal drama on the rest of the world. It's rarely a bad assumption.
Each of which came and went before news broke (from our friend Julio Rosas, just before noon Central time) that the suspect was Vance Boelter. Rosas beat the entire rest of the media to the scoop, just before noon on Saturday:
BREAKING: I'm told by a police source in Minnesota the suspect in the shootings of MN state lawmakers is Vance Luther Boelter.
— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) June 14, 2025
It appears it is the same Boelter who was appointed to the Governor’s Workforce Development Board in 2019 by Gov. Tim Walz. He appointed to the… pic.twitter.com/r1wjWXs2lA
The naming of the suspect didn't slow down the speculation. As the sun set on Saturday with Boelter still at large, I found myself drifting back toward my first assumpion: mentally ill.
Boulter was apprehended on Sunday night, not far from the home in exurban Green Isle, southwest of Minneapolis. But that didn't stop the speculation - as Boulter's "roommate" (at an apartment he apparently kept in Minneapolis) became the source du jour for a few hours:
Just spoke with Vance Boelter’s roommate, David who told us he was “very conservative” and “would be offended if people thought he was a Democrat” (as some had assumed) that he was a fan of #InfoWars, that he voted for and was very happy President Trump won the election. pic.twitter.com/va3EBuVAlM
— Lilia Luciano (@lilialuciano) June 15, 2025
Even with the apprehension, the quesitons keep getting weirder - although the affadavit filed in the Federal case against Boelter help answer at least the logistical and timeline questions.
As to motive? Again - all speculation, so far. Some sources (like the excellent DataRepublican) are drawing interesting inferences:
You aren't going to like this post, but it needs to be said about Vance Bolter.
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) June 15, 2025
At first, I assumed Vance Boelter was just another grifter in the NGO/activist space. He built a fake resume, floated around volunteer gigs, and set up shell organizations for clout. His "Red Lion… https://t.co/kdIFCOfSHS pic.twitter.com/EbphTJRM4c
Senator Mike Lee of Utah has been taking a lot of flak for jumping to one conclusion:
Nightmare on Waltz Street pic.twitter.com/Nkifu7cKPA
— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) June 15, 2025
Which drew a huge response, including this rather sweeping and instant verdictr from Senator Chris Murphy of New Jersey:
The Minnesota assassin appears to be a hate-filled right winger. So can we stop walking on eggshells about MAGA's legitimization of political violence?
— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) June 15, 2025
Yes, Republicans have also been the target of inexcusable violence, but this isn't a "both sides" issue.
1/ A🧵on the danger.
Which appears to be an unwelcome reversal for the Senator, who was calling for circumspection and sobriety when it was Luigi Mangioni's mug shut and manifesto getting the attention.
When Luigi Mangione executed a healthcare CEO in broad daylight. Chris Murphy thought he should hear him out, and have a conversation
— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) June 16, 2025
pic.twitter.com/TWGSNkiLLu https://t.co/nFlmfemFSo
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this is not the end of this case, and it's not even the beginning of the end. It's the end of the beginning.
So Churchill was hip to Berg's 18th Law a few decades before I was born...
