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Things Are Going to Get Messy Over Abortion, Aren’t They?

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

Law and order aren’t persuading voters, and now the abortion debate is creeping back into the discussion. It’s baffling, as public safety isn’t a hyper-partisan issue. Even liberals don’t want to get killed, stabbed, mugged, or raped. Yet, the issue fell flat in 2022 and sank again regarding local elections.

Chicago was never going to elect a Republican, but a pro-law and order Democrat was possible in Paul Vallas, who made it into the second round but got trounced by Brandon Johnson, who is softer on crime than outgoing Mayor Lori Lightfoot. The controversial pro-crime Los Angeles County district attorney, George Gascon, survived a recall effort. Maybe the only win the pro-public safety side has seen was removing San Francisco’s district attorney, Chesa Boudin. That’s hardly a cause for celebration, given what’s transpired. Enhancing public safety should be a slam-dunk. It’s failing, and now the GOP will have another abortion debate that could imperil our 2024 chances.

The Dobbs decision is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, it reversed the heinous Roe v. Wade opinion, which blew apart any emerging consensus on abortion. It rightfully returned this issue to the states; abortion was and never has been banned nationwide. I can see why the more hardcore pro-life wings wanted to get the most stringent anti-abortion laws passed, but this is a long game. Patience and practice are in order because while most restrictions are popular with voters, do we need to gin up the liberal base simultaneously?

Thus far, the abortion wars are being won by the left. The Wisconsin Supreme Court race, which has now tilted the balance of that body leftward, is partially due to this issue. The other part is candidate quality again; we had a bad one. But Republicans also can’t message on abortion if their lives depended on it. Given the lack of communications success, some Republicans outright avoid the debate, which isn’t an option.

As some have observed about progressives, there is no neutral position anymore. They will make you care; sides will be taken. Blasted with the artificial winds generated by the liberal press, abortion will be discussed, and the GOP must be ready for it. At the base level, however, the party and the base need to reconcile with something: there will never be a federal abortion ban in the immediate term. Pro-lifers can advocate for one, as the left will try to push a bill guaranteeing a right to an abortion. The late Justice Antonin Scalia plainly said such a law on either side would pass constitutional muster; nothing is in our founding document about it. It doesn’t explicitly prohibit it, either. The way is clear. For the left, their extremism on the issue has made many of their ideas unpalatable, hence the emphasis on winning court battles instead of legislative ones.

For Republicans, the best, for now, is to adopt what Kansas has done. Prohibit all funding (state and federal), back parental consent laws, and ban the procedure after 21 weeks and six days. In keeping with our side not being able to message, Kansas also rejected a right-to-life amendment to their state constitution to the tune of 58 percent. Many Republicans voted against the amendment, possibly because they felt their state had a good handle on this topic. There was no need to be more intrusive.

The left tried to spin the Kansas vote as a win and a harbinger of doom for the GOP. They were wrong on the former, not the latter, however. It has been the monkey on our backs, and the folks we designate to lead the way in this fight say things that make the situation worse. No one likes abortion on our side, leave that cheap shot at home. It’s nonsensical, but there are political realities that must be considered. Abortion may not be banned, but it should be regulated. A 20-week ban did have the support of 60 percent of women. Even far-left European nations ban abortion anywhere from 15-20 weeks. Late-term abortions, except for extreme circumstances, aren’t even a possibility.

This will get messy, and the timing couldn’t be worse, especially as the 2024 GOP primaries get rolling and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jumps into the mix. It took just one man, Todd Akin, to smear the entire GOP as the “legitimate rape” party, which killed our chances to make gains in the Senate races in 2012. It also helped Barack Obama clinch a second term. I fear we’re heading into that same iceberg again.

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John Sexton 7:00 PM | December 06, 2024
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