According to Allahpundit’s electoral math made easy, we’ve got two deciders and two longshots.

Colorado is undoubtedly the most likely to fall in Mitt Romney’s column. Republicans won early voting— a change from 2008 when the Obama campaign won the early vote by several points on the way to a 9-point victory. As of 4 p.m. MST, thanks to our friend Kelly Maher, we know from the Secretary of State’s office that Republicans were at 82 percent of their 2008 turnout, Democrats at 80 and Independents at 79, seemingly good news for Republicans who can count on a decent boon in the after-work voting bloc.

Watch live returns, here.

Team Romney liked the signals from bellwether and swing counties earlier today:

Arapahoe (Swing County) — 4,860 Democrat & 5,271 Republican — Election Day so far.

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV — 75,653 Democrat & 75,812 Republican.

Jefferson County (Swing) — 78,738 Democrat & 85,378 Republican for AB/EV.

Wisconsin, earlier tonight, the word from the GOP on the ground. Watch live results, here.

GOPers at this hour feeling relatively good (tossup at least) about CO & IA. WI not so much.

— Scott Conroy (@ScottFConroy) November 6, 2012

Scott Walker won his recall by seven points, with both GOTV efforts in full swing, but there were two types of Walker voters. 1) People who were backing Walker and 2) people who didn’t believe Walker had done anything warranting a recall, even if they didn’t agree with him. Not all of those folks are Romney voters.

If we have a better idea of where Virginia stands by the time these states’ polls closed, we’ll know whether it’s worth bothering with Michigan and Minnesota, the longest of the long shots. If Virginia goes blue, it’ll likely be an unfun night in these states for Team Romney.

Update: Fox calls Michigan for Obama. Romney loses his native state and one, albeit far-fetched, back-up route to 270.

Update: The spread looks like 52-48 for Obama and Sen. Debbie Stabenow wins the Senate seat.

Update: Two gone for Team Romney in this category as Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama.

Update: Hmm…

I am puzzled by the Wisconsin call. 3% of the vote in. All counties strongly swing towards Romney. Seems premature.

— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 7, 2012

Update: Wisconsin has been called by several networks, and Minnesota goes blue, 53-45.

Update: Gulp.

FLASH: Denver Post projects Colorado victory for Barack Obama #COvote

— The Denver Post (@denverpost) November 7, 2012