The word is that New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu will endorse Nikki Haley today. Sununu is not running for re-election. He has been auditioning Ron DeSantis, Haley, and Chris Christie by campaigning with the individual candidates across the state.

Sununu will make his endorsement at a town hall event for Haley in Manchester.

The New Hampshire governor was contemplating a run in the Republican primary himself but decided against it. Sununu is only 49 years old. He has plenty of time to run later if he wants to do so. He spent the summer and fall with the GOP candidates and said he would endorse when he thought the time was right. It looks like that time is now. He said he is looking for the best candidate to take on Trump in the primary.

I’ll be honest, I’m a little surprised. I think Haley is running for vice president, though she claims otherwise. I think if Trump asked her to join his ticket, assuming he is the candidate, she would say yes and excuse her flip-flop by saying she was called by Trump to serve the country. Whether Trump will choose her is another question. Right now she is looked upon as disloyal to Trump, as all of his opponents are. Trump highly values loyalty to him. She could be a moderate Establishment choice, to counter-balance Trump’s populist rhetoric. Remember, Trump chose then-Governor Mike Pence to give the ticket cred with Trump skeptics. Pence endorsed Ted Cruz in Indiana. We’ll have to see how this plays out.

Don’t get me wrong. I like Nikki Haley. She has a solid resume. It’s not a Ron DeSantis resume, but she has experience as a governor, which I think is important, and she was Ambassador to the U.N. which gives her foreign policy cred. She was a kickass ambassador and pushed the America First agenda well. And, I want the first woman president to be a Republican. However, do I think she can beat Donald Trump for the nomination? No. Trump’s number in individual state polls is growing, not shrinking as endorsements roll out.

Haley is in second place in New Hampshire. Trump is at 45.7%, Haley at 18.7%, Christie at 11.3%, and DeSantis is fourth with 7.7%. Chris Christie has solely concentrated on New Hampshire. He thinks it is his best shot to stop Trump’s momentum. Haley has put in a lot of time in the state. DeSantis has put all his eggs in the Iowa caucuses basket.

Haley is in second place in her home state. Trump is up almost 30 points there. Sununu does not think that Trump can win in 2024 and he wants the Republican Party to turn the page. Sununu has said he’ll be all-in with his choice of candidate. He wants to begin ushering in a new era in the Republican Party and move it away from Trump.

From what the governor has already said about how he plans to approach this, we’re going to be seeing him put his popularity and political clout behind his chosen candidate, Haley.

Sununu has consistently been one of the most popular governors in the country.

Through three reelection bids, he has demonstrated a strong connection with New Hampshire’s swing, undeclared voters who are expected to play a key role once again in this primary.

That’s all fine but it doesn’t appear that the base of the party is ready to move on. The base is the most active voters in primary elections. They are the ones who show up and vote. None of the not-Trump candidates have moved the needle with big endorsements. At least not yet. Time is slipping away. The Iowa caucuses are on January 15. The New Hampshire primary is January 23, with South Carolina holding its primary on February 24. I look for Christie to drop out either before or after South Carolina. I think he will have his JEB! Bush moment in South Carolina. Ramaswamy is likely to hang around for a while. Money is not a problem for him. If Trump wins all three of the first contests, he will set the table for the nomination. DeSantis and Haley have to make good showings to keep going.

Elections are won state by state and that includes the party’s nomination. Do big endorsements matter anymore? At one time they were thought to influence voters but is that still true? In Iowa, for example, DeSantis has the biggest endorsements in that state, yet the needle hasn’t moved. He won the last RNC-sponsored debate and the needle hasn’t moved. Trump is at 50.0%, DeSantis at 19.7%, and Haley at 15.7%, DeSantis only moved about three points. Trump rose to 50%. Attaining 50% usually means that the person will win the caucus or primary. Will that logic hold this cycle?

Both Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and New Hampshire Governor Sununu are popular in their states. In Iowa, her endorsement isn’t moving Trump supporters.

Ryan Von Lienen, a 43-year-old poll respondent and carpenter from Vinton, says Trump is his first choice for the GOP nomination.

Von Lienen said he wasn’t moved by endorsements, instead selecting candidates based on “gut feeling.” He said Trump has “accomplished great things.”

“I love Kim,” Von Lienen said. “However, I don’t think she should have backed Ron DeSantis.

The same is true for the Americans for Prosperity (Koch) endorsement of Haley. It hasn’t proven to be the game-changer it was hyped to be.