North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum suspended his presidential campaign on Monday morning. It wasn’t much of a surprise, though, since he didn’t qualify for the third or fourth RNC debate.
As a side note, I ponder why Asa Hutchinson is still in the race. He said he would decide after Thanksgiving. Tick, tock, Asa. Just pull the plug already.
Burgum is a wealthy man and can stay in the race as long as he chooses to. The same is true with Vivek Ramaswamy. He is beginning to circle the drain but is still ahead of Chris Christie.
Moving along on the campaign trail, the Super PAC that is so active for Governor DeSantis is rearranging its senior leadership. Again. It pains me to say so but the frequent re-grouping doesn’t seem to be doing the DeSantis campaign any favors. I haven’t seen a change in the status quo as I check the Real Clear Politics aggregate. State polls tell the most accurate tale but national polls have their usefulness, too. They can provide a good overview of the whole field. Some top campaign staff have been let go.
Never Back Down chief executive Chris Jankowski stepped down on November 22; Adam Laxalt, chair of the super PAC, announced Friday he would do the same. Then, over the weekend, several key operatives were reportedly fired, including Jankowski’s interim successor Kristin Davison, Director of Operations Matt Palmisano, and Communications Director Erin Perrine. Meanwhile, the DeSantis campaign suggested in a donor memo last week that, while it was still counting on Never Back Down’s early-state field operation, it had greater trust in the TV-ad operation of a newly formed pro-DeSantis super PAC, Fight Right.
Maybe the DeSantis-Newsom debate will help DeSantis out of his rut, along with the 4th RNC debate that is scheduled for Wednesday night. The second Super PAC should be able to help, too. However, previous staff shake-ups didn’t move the needle. Something along the line isn’t landing for the campaign. DeSantis is putting in the work. He finished the Full Grassley over the weekend. He visited all of the state’s 99 counties. The crowd size for his rallies and events is reported to be good. The campaign has focused on the ground game in Iowa and made winning the caucuses a priority.
It is a short six weeks until the Iowa caucuses. It will be here before we know it.
What I was struck by as I watched the Sunday morning political shows was the clear shift to pumping up Nikki Haley and downplaying DeSantis. Some pundits sounded as though they were writing obituaries for the DeSantis campaign. Not one vote has been cast and the primary season is often unpredictable. This time around, the frontrunner for the nomination is under criminal indictment. He will spend a good portion of the campaign season in court, not on the trail holding rallies. Will his support hold up as time wears on or will voters grow tired of the uncertainness and drama? It remains to be seen. Trump needs more than his base if he is the nominee, to win the presidential election against Biden (if he is the nominee).
It is reported that Paul Ryan is supporting Nikki Haley and talking to big donors about supporting her. Ironically, Trump supporters like to describe DeSantis as the candidate favored by Ryan and other moderate Republicans. Some of Haley’s big donors are approaching Christie donors to see if they will encourage Christie to get out of the race. They hope that Haley will be more confrontational against Trump if the field of candidates shrinks.
“There are conversations about that; I was asked to help,” a Christie donor told us Saturday. “I said ‘no.’” Separately, at least one veteran Republican donor supporting Haley confirmed awareness of such discussions during a brief telephone interview. Sources on both sides emphasized that these talks were being initiated by Haley financiers and did not involve Haley campaign officials.
I don’t look for Christie to drop out until South Carolina. He is in it to come in strong in New Hampshire and slow down Trump’s path to the nomination. Right now, the presidential campaign ads I see running in my television broadcast area are Ron DeSantis and occasionally Trump. Before the third RNC debate, many ads played for Doug Burgum. Those stopped, though, and now it’s Chris Christie in television ads. I have seen very few ads for Nikki Haley.
It’s all getting very interesting. Trump is going to do a town hall with Sean Hannity on FNC Tuesday night. On Wednesday night, the RNC will hold its 4th debate. The number of candidates on the stage looks to be down to three – DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy. It doesn’t look like Christie will qualify for this one. Ronna McDaniel hasn’t made the formal list of who will be on the stage public as I write this post.
The RNC’s rules say candidates must hit at least 6 percent in polls that meet the committee’s requirements. They can use either two national surveys or one national survey plus polls from two separate early nominating states to meet that threshold. Only three candidates have the RNC’s requirements for the debate, according to POLITICO’s tracking of the process: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump, who would easily meet the polling threshold, is skipping the debates.
Christie has only two qualifying polls in New Hampshire in which he has reached or exceeded 6 percent, according to POLITICO’s analysis. Because they came from the same early state, Christie still needs to hit 6 percent in two national polls or one national poll and a poll from either Iowa, Nevada, or South Carolina by early next week.
We’ll know soon.
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