Mike Pence is having himself a month. Politico ponders, what if Pence is killing it in Iowa? The truth is that Iowa Republicans who show up for the caucuses are a natural fit for Pence. He knows it and is wisely spending time courting them.

Iowa has a large population of evangelical voters who turn out for Republicans if they decide to give a candidate their support. Pence is running in the evangelical conservative lane. Some polling now shows Pence in second place in Iowa. Granted, it’s the polling by a Pence-affiliated PAC, but it shows that Pence is second only to Trump in Iowa. Pence gets 19% of the vote in the poll. That probably is not a surprise to Team Trump. One reason Trump chose Pence as a running mate in 2015 was because of his evangelical cred. He is one of them. He speaks their language and they respond to him.

What if the naysayers are wrong? What if Pence is gaining traction in two important early states with a large percentage of evangelical voters? Those two states are Iowa and South Carolina.

But what if that view was wrong? What if Pence is stronger with evangelicals than he’s given credit for? After all, his comfort level with Christian conservatives was the major reason that former President Donald Trump chose him as his running mate in the first place. The limited polling that is setting conventional wisdom in those states so far isn’t exactly independent — it’s mostly from outfits with connections to other campaigns.

The Iowa polling done by Committed to America, the Pence-affiliated PAC, tells a different story. According to their data, Pence is in second-place in Iowa with 19 percent, trailing only Trump. Whether you believe it or not, it’s not an outlandish finding in a state where Pence has spent so much of his time campaigning. He’s kept a steady presence in the pages of the Des Moines Register. He’s a born-again Christian who’s in line with every major issue that is important to evangelicals. He even knows many of the pastors of Iowa evangelical churches.

Pence speaks to the evangelicals better than anyone in the field, routinely sharing his personal faith testimony with voters on the trail, quoting from Scripture with the ease of a pastor in the pulpit. What’s more, he has used his book tour to speak Sunday mornings at a number of megachurches in a way that sets him apart from the field.

Pence will have some competition for the votes of evangelicals. Tim Scott will be competitive in South Carolina and he has been received well in Iowa. One thing to give Pence hope is that evangelical influencer Bob Vander Plaats said that the Iowa caucuses are “wide open.” In May, Plaats said, “Stay tuned.”

The #IowaCaucuses are wide open. Stay tuned! https://t.co/ENba3ltSLk

— Bob Vander Plaats (@bobvanderplaats) May 15, 2023

There is still lots of time. There is plenty of time for Republican candidates like Pence to visit Iowa and win over voters between now and the Iowa State Fair, for example. The Iowa State Fair is where they go and walk among the crowds and do some serious retail campaigning. They eat corndogs and flip pork chops on the grill. And, don’t forget recognition of the butter cow. The dates of the Iowa State Fair are August 10 through August 20. It ends just before the first Republican primary debate scheduled for August 23.

Remember, Pence was the only GOP candidate who joined Senator Joni Ernst at her annual Roast and Ride event on the back of a Harley. Eight Republican candidates showed up but Pence was the only one to ride a motorcycle as she did.

Pence has been keeping himself in the news with his talk about limiting abortions – he would ban them after 15 weeks and would make it a minimum nationwide ban – and working to separate himself from Trump without alienating Trump voters. His campaign has been door knocking in a big way, too.

Today, adding to his news coverage, Pence made a surprise visit to Kyiv. He made stops in three different cities and villages outside Kyiv. He saw the heavy destruction and signs of violence against civilians in Bucha, Irpin, and Moschun. He met with locals and laid flowers at memorials for those killed in the war. He told families in Irpin that Americans are praying for them and supporting Ukraine.

He met with Zelensky at the presidential palace in Kyiv. Pence told Zelensky that his resolve was stronger than ever to support Ukraine.

We’ll see if Pence can continue to gain some steam in the GOP primary. Currently, he is a single-digit primary candidate. He has a long way to go.