The RNC has released the rules for the first GOP primary debate. It’s coming sooner than we think, or are probably ready for. It will be held on August 23. It will be here before we know it. It will happen in Milwaukee, where the Republican convention will be held in 2024, and Fox will host the debate.

That means the debates are off to a good start. I strongly believe that this is the year for the RNC to finally just say no to any venue for a Republican primary debate that is not hosted by a conservative-leaning outlet. Stop the madness of allowing liberal media to meddle in the process with debates moderated by Democrat partisans. No to CNN, MSNBC, PBS, and so on.

In order to qualify for the first RNC-sanctioned debate, a candidate must have 1% support in three national polls and 40K registered donors. That will be the lowest bar. As primaries advance, the qualifications will become more difficult to meet.

It is important for all the candidates to participate, as long as they qualify, and that includes Donald Trump. So far he has refused to say he will debate the others because he thinks he doesn’t have to do that. His lead in polls is substantial enough, he thinks, that he should not have to bother with participating in debates. He expects a coronation and calls his challengers disloyal to him. He’s wrong. We live in a constitutional republic, and candidates have to earn votes, even former presidents. If Trump is expecting to count on only his most loyal base, he will lose. He has to win the votes of others who may have stopped supporting him, especially after the 2020 election.

Marc Thiessen, former George W. Bush speechwriter, describes support for Trump as a mile wide and an inch deep. On Fox this morning, he said that 76% Republican voters are up for grabs. On the Real Clear Politics website, Trump has 53.2% of Republican support. According to a CBS poll, about a quarter of the electorate is supporting Trump, a quarter say they will not support Trump under any circumstances, and about half of the GOP electorate say they are deciding between Trump and other candidates. Thus, 76% are up for grabs. They are either not supporting Trump or are checking out alternatives. He makes an interesting point.

One potential point of contention for Trump may be the requirement by the RNC that all participants pledge to support the party’s nominee when he or she is chosen. If Trump sits out the debates, he loses the opportunity to appeal to those voters who are checking out other candidates as alternatives to Trump. Trump usually does well with audiences in a debate setting. He’s not a traditional-style debater and audiences liked that in 2015. Does his style still play in 2023? That remains to be seen. There is a lot of Trump fatigue centered around his personality, not his policies, and that will weigh in on the decision of voters. Candidates have until August 21, just two days before the debate, to turn in their signed pledges. Look for Trump to wait until the very last minute to turn his in. Yes, I predict he will meet the requirements and be on the debate stage. He can’t pass up the opportunity to reach the large audience that a debate on Fox guarantees to attract. Can you image him sitting it out and using Truth Social to vent all evening? In 2015, 24 million people watched the first debate, also on Fox. That’s huge.

The top five primary candidates, at least so far, will all meet the requirements for the first debate. Trump, DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Vivek Ramaswamy all should reach the thresholds without any problems. The ones who are sweating the requirements at this point include some that will enter the race this week. Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Larry Elder, Chris Sununu, and Asa Hutchinson are considered “on the bubble” by Politico, which leans heavily left. Sununu has not made an official decision but Chris Christie is expected to launch his campaign this week in New Hampshire. Pence is also expected to launch his campaign this week in Iowa on his birthday.

The ones with little to no chance of qualifying are Doug Burgum, the Governor of North Dakota who will announce this week, Perry Johnson, Ryan Binkley, and two maybe candidates – Mike Rogers and Will Hurd. Both Rogers and Hurd are former congressmen.

The primary is heating up. It’s getting interesting for us political junkies. It’s also going to be a long summer as we watch the daily back and forth between individual candidates when we’d really like to see them aim their fire at Biden and Harris. But, this is a primary battle and they have to do what they can to earn votes and attention from primary voters. Let the games begin.