The Biden administration is smugly boasting that the explosion in the number of apprehensions at the southern border after the expiration of Title 42 didn’t happen – yet. I think it is short-sighted to think they have come through the worst of it. For now, there is much uncertainty on the way forward and the cartels who run parts of the border are recalibrating and will soon resume their illegal activities, including human smuggling and drug smuggling.

In the meantime, the numbers from April were released and Border Patrol agents apprehended 182,114 illegal migrants between ports of entry last month. That is a 12% increase over March. The total number of encounters were up 10% in April – to 211,401 when land and air apprehensions are added in. According to CBP, it is normal for illegal migration to increase at winter’s end. These numbers show an 11% decrease if we compare last month to April 2022.

The number of unaccompanied minors decreased in April but the number of single adult encounters were up 5% compared to March. The largest increase was with families. They rose 28%. Of those 28%, only 14% of the families were designated for Title 42 expulsions. About half of single adults were expelled in April.

In April, CBP processed 65% of the migrants under Title 8 rules, which are more comprehensive than Title 42 rules. This was in anticipation of Title 42 expiring on May 11. CPB hoped it was getting a jump on when May 11 arrived. “As part of our planning for the end of the Title 42 public health order, we have surged resources, technology, and personnel to safely and orderly manage challenges along the southern border,” CBP Acting Commissioner Troy A. Miller said. Border agents and officers are adapting to changing trends and rules.

The demographics of the migrants include 28,738 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans who were paroled into the United States in April as per the parole rules established in October for Venezuelans and then expanded to Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua in January. Those numbers also include those who made online appointments for asylum through the CBP One app.

The truth is that most illegal aliens will not qualify for asylum. The vast majority come for economic opportunity and that is not a legal reason for asylum as U.S. immigration laws stand now.

According to U.S. immigration laws, the fact is that most noncitizens coming to our border are not eligible to remain in the United States. Asylum laws do not provide for relief solely for economic reasons or for general violence.https://t.co/HriWcruv1H pic.twitter.com/nWUoh6XNui

— CBP (@CBP) May 17, 2023

So, you see that while the number may not be exploding right now, in the post-May 11 days, the numbers leading up to May 11 were already historically bad numbers. A total of 1,816,958 illegal migrants have been apprehended since October 1. Some migrants are using the online app.

Since January 12, more than 79,000 migrants have scheduled appointments through the app, with the top nationalities being Mexican, Venezuelan and Haitian. In April, CBP processed at ports of entry 22,000 individuals who made appointments through the app. They were granted exceptions to Title 42 expulsions based on individual vulnerability.

The increases in April do not bode well for what is to come, with the seasonal increase about to gear up at the southern border.

In April, Border Patrol agents at the Southwest border apprehended more than 182,000 illegal migrants — by my counting making last month’s apprehension total the 15th highest in history (records go back to October 1999), and the 12th highest in the 27 full and dismal (from a border security perspective) months of the Biden administration.

It’s also a 12 percent increase in apprehensions over March, and a 40 percent increase over February — the month Biden lauded his immigration efforts at the State of the Union address.

Biden and his administration can give lip service to an insistence that the southern border is closed when everyone knows it is not all they want but it doesn’t make it true. Little has changed since Biden took office and eliminated the policies and agreements that worked during the previous administration. They developed an app that doesn’t have a great track record so far. Isn’t it interesting that all these illegal migrants show up with cell phones and that is how they communicate? They are from poor (and corrupt) countries, searching for jobs and economic stability for a better life and yet they have cell phones, clean clothes, and backpacks carrying their possessions.

The Biden administration would do well to not get too cocky about what is coming down the road. There is no indication that the Biden border crisis is going away any time soon.