One thing is clear – Ron DeSantis has to go ahead with his announcement that he is running for the Republican nomination for president sooner rather than later. If DeSantis is going to run, and there is no reason to think he is not, he has to stop the bleeding now and get after it. The most recent poll out of New Hampshire indicates that Trump is gaining ground and DeSantis is sinking. After a book tour and a much-touted visit to Washington, D.C. to meet with members of Congress, that is not a conclusion that Team DeSantis wants.

It is very early and polls are not gospel but New Hampshire is an important state, certainly in the early stage of the primary process, and opinions there matter. That is why candidates bend over backward to meet and greet the voters in the Granite State. Voters there expect to get to know the candidates on a personal level. It is a small but important state for candidates in both political parties.

What is going on that DeSantis is losing some of his steam at this point? Two words – Trump’s indictment. By all indications, Trump is riding that indictment issued by D.A. Bragg and his arrest to a primary victory unless DeSantis finds a way to stop Trump. Even Democrats and their colleagues in the media acknowledge what a bone-headed decision that was for the Manhattan district attorney to make. The case is weak, to put it mildly, and Trump is on the receiving end of sympathy from all quarters. His poll numbers are up, even with women, and DeSantis is on the descent. Trump is raking in campaign donations off of fundraising from the indictment. It’s all creating the perfect storm for Trump.

The narrative can change, of course, and as I said, it is very early in the process. But, DeSantis can’t afford to ignore the reality on the ground. I can appreciate his wanting to do things on his own timeline and his sense of obligation to put his governorship ahead of a presidential run but there comes a time when adjustments have to be made. Is DeSantis flexible enough to run a national campaign? I sure hope so, because, given the choice, I choose him in the primary, but he has to show he can listen to voters and respond accordingly. Everyone has to earn the nomination, even the very popular and successful Florida governor. American voters don’t want another Biden vs Trump election. American voters are ready for the next generation to rise up and lead. It’s time for the 80-year-olds (and those almost 80) to step back and enjoy their golden years in private life.

After more than a year of steady decline, the percentage of the state’s GOP backing Trump for the 2024 nomination has soared from 30 to 42 percent. At the same time, DeSantis’ support, which had been steadily rising since October 2021, plunged by 21 points, from 43 to 22 percent.

“Trump’s support has increased markedly among self-described libertarians (+48) and conservatives (+26) as well as among women (+23),” according to the press release detailing the results of the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

The only other candidate to see major movement was Gov. Chris Sununu, from 4 percent to 12 percent since January, though entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy jumped from an asterisk to 3 percent over the same period.

So, at this rate, it would appear that voters in New Hampshire aren’t so adamant about denying Trump another shot at running for president against Joe Biden. At this point, it seems that voters are still in a fickle stage and their support for one candidate isn’t firm yet. Is the nomination Trump’s to lose?

For some New Hampshire Republicans, the numbers are the latest sign that the 2024 nomination is Trump’s to lose.

“Politics has become like a nature TV special: Trump is the tiger, and everyone else is the gazelle,” said GOP strategist Pat Griffin. “The laws of nature say kill or be killed. That’s how this GOP sees things.

“Trump is too strong to be stopped. And that’s exactly what the current Republican Party wants — at least for now.”

Most voters are nowhere near ready to engage in party politics and the 2024 presidential election yet. The first primaries and the Iowa caucus won’t even happen until February 2024. The Iowa caucus is still first for Republicans (though not for Democrats this time around because Joe Biden does poorly in Iowa) and it is scheduled for February 5, 2024. There is lots of time for DeSantis to get a little better at getting out and meeting voters, pressing the flesh, and doing a little small talk though he is not fond of doing all that retail politics rigamarole. Especially in a place like New Hampshire. That is why it was so important that reports of his first big event in New Hampshire – a GOP annual fundraiser dinner – said DeSantis stayed about an hour after the dinner ended and mingled with he attendees.

It is far too early to write DeSantis off and those who do, do so at their own peril. There is a long way to go. Trump’s campaign is aggressive and that was to be expected. They have taken the approach Trump used in 2015 – attack his strongest competition on a personal level and knock the competition off one by one. At this point, DeSantis is Trump’s only true competition and he knows that. DeSantis hasn’t even officially entered the race and it’s on like Donkey Kong. It’s time for DeSantis to make a move. Stop ceding ground to Trump in important spots at such an early stage.