The effort to recall New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell marches on. Late last week organizers sued two election officials, setting the stage for what will likely be a long legal and political fight. The recall effort has to prove it has the signature needed to force a recall referendum.

Recall organizers Beldon Batiste and Eileen Carter filed a lawsuit in Orleans Civil District Court which alleges that Orleans Parish Registrar of Voters Sandra Wilson failed to remove dead, out-of-state, or otherwise ineligible people from the city’s active voter list. By doing so, it would lower the number of signatures, perhaps by thousands, that the organizers must collect by a Wednesday deadline. They also allege that Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin failed to produce an accurate count of active voters, a requirement mandated by law. This is their first legal move aimed at public officials in charge of overseeing the recall process, as they prepare to determine if enough New Orleans voters have properly signed petitions to trigger a recall vote.

The organizers have to collect signatures from a fifth of the parish’s active, registered voters as of the date of the recall petition’s filing, which was August 26. That total is 49,976 names, according to the secretary of state’s report. They say they are only about a thousand signatures short of the required number. The lawsuit claims the target number has been artificially inflated by an inaccurate active voter list.

It is possible that if all ineligible voter names are removed from the active list and moved to the inactive list, the signature requirement number could drop by 6,534. The organizers would already have enough signatures, ahead of the Wednesday deadline.

The petition alleges that Wilson, who has served as registrar of voters since 2006, has overseen a “chaotic” list that includes nearly 33,000 ineligible names, including 21,000 people who have moved out of the state, 9,000 people who have moved out of the parish and 500 people who have died, according to an analysis by the private firm Gulf Coast Resources.

Recall leaders hope to have the voters they have flagged as ineligible moved from the active to the inactive voter list. Inactive voters can still vote on election days, but they must confirm their correct address at the polling place. After missing two federal elections, inactive voters can be scrubbed from the rolls altogether.

When asked for comment, Wilson declined. Ardoin’s office defended his leadership on the integrity of the state’s voter rolls but declined more comments. Cantrell’s campaign organization didn’t respond to a request for comment. She dismisses the recall campaign as a “Republican-backed maneuver.” She has generally remainedsilente about the recall’s progress.

The lawsuit has been assigned to Civil District Court Judge Jennifer Medley. She is scheduled to hear the case on Feb. 27.

Recall campaign attorneys Laura Cannizzaro Rodrigue and Blake Arcuri rejected the idea that moving voters to the inactive list would create difficulty in voting. Rodrigue said, “That really doesn’t make it harder for people to vote, according to the statute. For the most part, you can just go into the polling place, your precinct, and give them your name, your address.” It is possible that the lawsuit could result in a delayinf the signature verification process. That process runs 20 business days after a recall petition is filed.

Once the recall petition is filed, the fun begins.

Once the petition is filed, voters will have five days to ask the registrar to have their names added to or withdrawn from the signature petition, setting off what could be a scramble to target and canvass voters and run advertisements.

If the petition is verified as meeting its goal, Cantrell could be faced with a costly election.

Why is Mayor Cantrell’s war chest gasping for breath? She raised $144,000 in donations and spent $199,000 n 2022, which means she’s in the hole. The small amount she has on hand, $6,700, is nothing in New Orleans politics. Candidates often spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to secure a citywide office.

Contrast Cantrell’s war chest with that of City Council member Helena Moreno, who’s term-limited from running for her at-large seat. She is thought to have visions of pursuing a higher office. She had $263,000 in campaign cash on hand at year’s end. Perhaps Cantrell raised other money since the start of this year and hasn’t needed for that to be disclosed in the latest report. Her campaign spokesperson did no comment.

Cantrell was re-elected by a wide margin. Normally, she wouldn’t need to have large sums of money at her disposal. But she faces a unique challenge in the recall effort and it is picking up steam. The recall effort has spent $519,000 on radio and tv ads, mailers, and t-shirts since it launched. Most of that money came from one Republican donor – businessman Rick Farrell. There is no limit on how much he can contribute to the recall in state campaign finance law.

If the recall effort is successful, which is not at all certain at this point, the next step will be to start a months-long election campaign that ends with a yes-or-no vote on whether Cantrell should remain in office. A political battle will begin because it will be uncharted territory. A sitting mayor has never fought a successful recall drive in New Orleans. One scenario finds New Orleanians could face three elections going up to April 2024, along with a City Council vote on an acting mayor in the interim.

After the recall petition is submitted, the registrar has 20 business days to verify signatures. If the petition is verified, Wilson must inform Gov. John Bel Edwards. A Democrat like Cantrell, Edwards would have 15 days to issue a proclamation calling the recall election.

Unless Wilson completes verification at lightning speed, the recall campaign would almost certainly miss the deadline to appear on the April 29 municipal ballot. That would set up two scenarios: either Edwards sets the recall election for the Oct. 14 gubernatorial primary, or he attempts to schedule a special election sooner. It’s unclear if Edwards has the power to do the latter.

Cantrell finds herself in a mess of her own making. She has had one scandal after another in office as the quality of life for city residents worsens. The biggest problem is the escalating crime rate in the Democrat-led city. The police department is understaffed due to recruitment problems and low morale.

There was a mass shooting at St. Charles Avenue andTerpsichoree Street Sunday night during the Krewe of Bacchus parade. It was the busiest weekend of Mardi Gras season. The shooting happened around 9:30 p.m. A young girl, a woman, and three men were shot. One man died. The shooter was arrested.

The shooting is the first one this year on a parade route during what has been a relatively peaceful Carnival season. The city spent $1 million and brought in 130 additional law enforcement officers to help an under-staffed NOPD patrol parade routes.

“This is really not something we wanted to see,” Ganthier said late Sunday. “We really wanted this to be a safe Mardi Gras and we continue to work toward that end.”

Will Mayor Cantrell save her time in office? Stay tuned.