Good news for Walker? Record-breaking early voting numbers in Georgia hold a good sign

AP Photo/Akili-Casundria Ramsess

Record-setting voter participation in early voting is giving both Herschel Walker and Raphael Warnock comfort in the brutal, bruising run-off race to fill a seat to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate. Democrats are excited about the number of voters turning out to early vote, something that typically benefits Democrats, and Republicans are encouraged by the numbers coming out of two key counties for Herschel Walker’s voters.

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Hey, whatever happened to Jim Crow 2.0? Joe Biden lamely mocked Georgia’s new laws passed to insure election integrity and even morphed Jim Crow into Jim Eagle. Yeah, he’s not great with stand-up comedy. Anyway, to hear him and other Democrats speak, you would think that intentional voter suppression is alive and well in Georgia. It was always a partisan attack made without justification and that has proven to be true during both the 2022 general election and now in the run-off race. Georgia is shattering records on the number of voters participating in the elections this year. That includes in the early voting phase in the run-off election happening now.

Voter turnout Monday was the highest ever for a single day of early voting in Georgia history. A total of 301,545 voters cast ballots in person ahead of Tuesday’s Senate runoff election. The previous single-day record was from the 2016 presidential election. A total of 252,715 Georgians voted early in person. On Tuesday, the number increased yet again. 309,083 voters cast ballots. So far, the grand total is more than 833,000 ballots cast. The numbers are impressive because traditionally, midterm elections turn out fewer voters and run-off races often turn out even fewer. Voters lose interest and enthusiasm wanes. Not this time, apparently.

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There is an up side for both campaigns. One worry for Republicans has been over voter enthusiasm. Will Republicans turn out to vote for Herschel Walker, even if they are a little less than excited about him as a candidate? Walker’s campaign manager, Scott Paradise, said on Monday, the first day of early voting in all of Georgia’s 159 counties, nine of the top ten counties with the highest turnout were counties Walker carried in the general election. Most of the counties, Paradise said, Walker carried with an overwhelming margin of victory. Turnout was particularly good in two of the most important red counties – Forsyth and Hall counties.

So, this is potentially good news for Walker. GOP enthusiasm is good and red counties are producing good results so far in early voting.

On the flip side, the Warnock campaign is excited over the high turnout in early voting, particularly in large urban areas by black voters. Georgia election law allows early voting in counties that wish to have it before the first date of early voting starts statewide. There was a legal battle before early voting began in the run-off race because of the calendar. Warnock and Georgia Democrats sued the Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, over early voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

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Georgia counties can’t hold early voting on a federal holiday or two days afterward. That knocked out Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving because the Friday after Thanksgiving is a state holiday. Early voting only lasts one week in a Georgia run-off. Democrats took Raffensperger’s decision to court and Fulton County Judge Thomas A. Cox handed a legal victory to Georgia Democrats and Raphael Warnock’s campaign. A county judge overruled state election law. His ruling said that the Georgia Secretary of State cannot prohibit counties from voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving as is currently stated in Georgia election law. So, in some counties, such as Democratic strongholds like Fulton and DeKalb, voter turnout is strong and likely benefits Warnock.

Scott Paradise notes that even with this encouraging news, general turnout is still low.

Let’s hope so. Democrats have the majority in the Senate and Kamala will cast any tie-breaking votes. But, if the Senate is 50-50 instead of 51-49, Republicans have a better chance of slowing Biden’s agenda. It’s very important that Walker wins the seat for Republicans. In a 50-50 split Senate, Republicans get equal representation on committees. It really does matter if Democrats have 50 or 51 seats. It also means Democrat Senators Manchin and Sinema have a lot of power with their votes. That can slow Democrats down, too, though not always. We can’t really count on them most of the time because they are Democrats who vote for Biden’s agenda most of the time.

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